Argentina Legislative Election 2017

[Velasco]

It's very strange to see an alliance between Massa and Stolbizer. I don't know too much about Argentinian politics but I have a feeling that Massa is still lost and confused after being unabled to became the leader of Macri's opposition.

Could this mean the end of Peronism as we know it or is just a politician trying to save his career?

Sergio Massa came a strong third (21.4%) in the first round of the 2015 presidential election. The Federal UNA (featuring Frente Renovador and De la Sota's Union for Córdoba) is the third largest block in the Chamber of Deputies (37 seats).

Margarita Stolbizer came in fifth place with only 2.5% of the vote. Her result in Buenos Aires province was also poor. The centre-left non-peronist alliance (Progresistas) got a similarly terrible result in the legislative elections, winning a single seat (Victoria Donda in Buenos Aires City) when it was defending 12 seats won in 2011. That alliance is not going to run in this legislative election and its different parties (Socialists, GEN, Libres del Sur) will try to make alliances with other blocks at provincial level.

Thus it's not so strange that in order to survive Margarita Stolbizer makes an alliance with Sergio Massa in Buenos Aires Province. Stolbizer is anti-Kirchner and the Macri's Cambiemos alliance is too right-leaning for her. Despite his ambiguity and opportunism, Sergio Massa represents a certain third way between Macri and the Kirchner clan. There are no more options left.

It's good news that Lousteau runs in a centre-left front in Buenos Aires city.

On the other hand, I think that the alliance between the Socialist Party and the UCR in Santa Fe province will be broken in this election. The Civic Radical Union might join Cambiemos thus the PS will have a tough match in its traditional stronghold. The province is governed by the Civic and Social Front (FPCS: PS+UCR) since 2007.

[Velasco]

Could someone give a brief explanation of the Argentine party system?

Possibly knowing the current composition of the two chambers -and the size of their parliamentary blocks- can be helpful.

Chamber of Deputies (257 seats)

Cambiemos 87 seats
Parties: PRO (42), UCR (36), Civic Coalition (6), Others (4). Centre-right / Non-Peronist

Front for Victory 72 seats
Centre-left / Peronist

Federal UNA block 37 seats

Parties: Renewal Front (23), De la Sota crew (6), Others and provincial parties, including Neuquén People's Movement ( 8 ). Centre-right / Peronist

Justicialist block 17 seats

FPV split. Peronist.

Progressives 8 seats

Parties; Socialist (4), Free of the South Movement (3), GEN (1). Centre-left / Non Peronist

Civic Front for Santiago 6 seats

Provincial party of Santiago del Estero usually allied with the Kirchners (FPV)

Peronism for Victory 6 seats

It looks like another FPV split

United for Argentina 5 seats

Another peronist faction led by Darío Giustozzi, Mayor of Almirante Brown in Meropolitan Buenos Aires until 2013. That year Giustozzi was elected deputy in the Sergio Massa list (Frente Renovador), He switched later to the FPV and stood as pre-candidate for Mayor of Almirante Brown again, losing the primary election.

Compromiso Federal 3 seats

The Rodríguez Saá clan from San Luis province. Centre-right / Peronist

Workers' Left Front 3 seats

Trotskyst. Hard Left

Frente de la Concordia Misionero 3 seats

Provincial party of Misiones usually allied with the Kirchners

Others 10 seats

Mix of provincial, left-wing microparties and one-man bands

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C3%A1mara_de_Diputados_de_la_Naci%C3%B3n_Argentina


Senate (72 seats)

Justicialist-Front for Victory 36 seats

Cambiemos 17 seats

UNA 3 seats

Others and provincial 16 seats

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senado_de_la_Naci%C3%B3n_Argentina

I made a map of the first round of the 2015 presidential election. Since its size is too big to be uploaded to my gallery and Imgur doesn't work here, you can take a look through this link below:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2017/05/28/argentina-2015-primera-vuelta/

[Velasco]

Isn't Front for Victory technically a faction within the Justicialists?

Yes, it is. The block in the Senate is actually called PJ-FPV. I edited the post and changed that, as well added something about the Darío Giustozzi block in the Chamber of Deputies.

Deciphering where the different Peronist factions stand can be a terrible mess. Also, the word "Justicialist" can be used by "officialist" and "dissident" factions. For instance, the "Justicialist block" in the Chamber of Deputies is made up by several members who left the FPV block in February 2016. In the Senate the term is used by the "official" Justicialist-Front for Victory block, but there are two provincial Justicialist blocks: PJ-La Pampa and PJ-San Luis (2 seats each).

[Velasco]

It's remarkable that the "Frente Para la Victoria" (FPV) label has been ruled out. Now the Justicialist and/or Kirchnerist alliances have different names in every district: "Unidad Ciudadana", "Unidad Porteña", "Justicialist Front", etcetera. Is that a symptom of disintegration?

[Velasco]

Hi, i'm new in the forum

Hi! Welcome and thanks for the reply. It makes sense. Are you from Argentina?

[Velasco]

A question I would be interested to ask of the Argentine and other Hispanic posters here is to what extent if any questions of identity influence people's voting behaviour. Looking at this map of the first round of the 2015 election



it can be seen that Macri's strongest areas were Buenos Aires City, Buenos Aires Province outside the BA suburbs, the Región Centro (and Argentine Antarctica). Meanwhile the strongest areas for Scioli were the the BA suburbs, the South and most especially the North of the country. Now my understanding is that those areas where Macri were strongest are areas where the bulk of people's ancestry (like that of Macri himself) comes from European immigrants of the last century and a half whilst the strongest Scioli areas are where the population is much more descended from the population of the Viceroyalty of Rio de La Plate (which of course included Paraguay and Bolivia).

I made my own map of the first round collecting the data from that interactive map released byLa Nación. My map is not interactive, but it has the little advantage of colours looking nicer and clearer (full size through the link)

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/argentina-2015.png

As for the patterns, with due caution, I would say that vote may reflect socioeconomic and geographic (rural/urban) cleavages. The poorer sections of the population, as well the peripheral and/or deprived areas supported the Kirchners in previous elections. However, race or ethnicity can hardly be considered a factor per se when you consider the structure of Argentinian demographics. According to official statistics 90% of the population is "white", 8.5% "mestizo" and 1.5% "amerindian". Also, as Alex said, Patagonia and large areas in the North weren't under the effective rule of the Viceroyalty of La Plata. Argentina fought a war in the XIX Century to conquer the Patagonia region, as the US did in the (North) American West. If I'm not wrong the remaining amerindian population in the southern provinces is very little, while in northern provinces like Jujuy next to Bolivia's border is much more relevant. Jujuy is the home province of Milagro Sala, the leader of the Tupac Amaru neighbourhood association, an amerindian woman and a kirchnerista. Oddly enough, Jujuy was the only province where Sergio Massa came first and the governor is from the UCR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_of_Argentina

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milagro_Sala

Returning to map. Macri's strongest areas correspond to the cities of Buenos Aires and Córdoba, the Humid Pampa (rural sections of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Entre Ríos) and part of the semiarid Cuyo region (Mendoza). It could be said that the PRO has largely replaced the UCR as the party of the urban middle classes. Also, the Humid Pampa is the richest agricultural region of the country.

Daniel Scioli's strongest areas correspond (broadly) to Greater Buenos Aires (Comurbano), the southern and the northern provinces. As said before, the population in Patagonian provinces is overwhelmingly of European ancestry. As for the Santa Cruz province:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Cruz_Province,_Argentina#Economy

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Sergio Massa came in a strong third. As said before, he won in Jujuy and also came second in the neighbouring Salta (his running mate is the mayor of the provincial capital). I think that the patterns of the vote for his third party are the most difficult to understand. For instance, in Santa Fe province and the city of Rosario Massa performed much better than one could expect. Maybe transfers from the Socialists and the Broad Progressive Front?

I would appreciate more input from our Argentinian posters since the subject intrigues me though.

[Velasco]

Yes, i agree with you. The white argentina myth and the idea that the country was built by european immigrants it's a vision that was constructed by the liberal-conservative regime from the 19th century and it stills persists. That doesn't mean that european immigration it's not  important in our culture, but other components of our culture related to our amerindian roots are somehow invisible due to this idea of a "european country in the south america" which is obviously false

That's what one of my best friends, who is from Argentina, says. Indeed, that 90% of "white" people is not necessarily "100% white". Anyway the countries of the Cono Sur (Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) are "whiter" than the rest of Latin America and have a larger proportion of people with European ancestry or genes. In the case of Argentina, I believe that the XIX Century wars diminished the indigenous population. Middle class individuals living in cities tend to be "whiter" than poor people living in rural areas or fled to Buenos Aires Conurbano. I believe that a good proportion of the descamisados ("shirtless", Peron supporters) was people with a skin colour darker than the Argentinian elites. Also, I think that the famous gauchos of the Pampas region must have a larger proportion of amerindian blood (thus they are darker too). The point is that identity politics based on ethnicity doesn't play a role as socioeconomic factors, geography or tradition. Except the aforementioned Milagro Sala of the Jujuy province, I can't recall politicians or "aboriginal" political movements  of importance.

[Velasco]

But Menem is going with PJ i.e. FV in order to gwtoa out of jail card? Cambienos won in La Rioja 2015?

And the ACF off San Juan and San Luis is dead?

2015 election.

The first round results in La Rioja were: Scioli 36.2%, Macri 31.7%, Massa 26%, Rodríguez Saá 3.3%, Del Caño 1.7%, Stolbizer 1.1%

In the second round Macri got 56.5% and Scioli 43.5%

It's obvious that most of the people voting for Massa in the 1st round switched to Macri in the 2nd. Massa didn't endorse anyone, but said that the country needed a change.

Adolfo Rodríguez Saá got a very poor result in the 2015 election. Nowadays Compromiso Federal is a non-entity outside San Luis.

Currently the main 'dissident' peronist faction is the one led by Sergio Massa (and De la Sota in Córdoba). The UNA Rioja list and 1País -Somos San Juán are aligned with Massa, if I'm not wrong. I guess the Massa faction is part of the Justicialist Unity Front of the San Luis province.

[Velasco]

What are the opinion polls saying for BA???

According to Clarín, polls predict a three cornered contest in the senatorial election between Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Unidad Ciudadana), Esteban Bullrich (Cambiemos) and Sergio Massa (1País). CFdK comes first and the second place would be fought between Bullrich and Massa. Florencio Randazzo would come in a distant fourth, followed by Néstor Pítrola (Workers' Left Front) and the rest of candidates.

https://www.clarin.com/politica/dicen-ultimas-encuestas-provincia-buenos-aires_0_ryp7oEBmW.html

Then you've got, as you say the whole caudillo archetype which, as I understand it, goes back even before Columbus to the Spanish conquest of Andalusia and the Canary Islands. Culture influences political structures which in turn influence culture.

Caudillo is a Spanish word that refers to a leader -whether military, political or ideological- that commands a group of people. It's a person that exercises leadership providing guidance to an organisation, a community or an entire nation. The word is commonly used for XIX and XX Century leaders, Caudillismo in Latin America is a fascinating phenomenon with an interesting history. I am curious to know what do you understand as the caudillo archetype and its origins you date in the conquest if Andalusia and the Canaries, although I'm afraid this subject could be off-topic.

[Velasco]

Then you've got, as you say the whole caudillo archetype which, as I understand it, goes back even before Columbus to the Spanish conquest of Andalusia and the Canary Islands. Culture influences political structures which in turn influence culture.

Caudillo is a Spanish word that refers to a leader -whether military, political or ideological- that commands a group of people. It's a person that exercises leadership providing guidance to an organisation, a community or an entire nation. The word is commonly used for XIX and XX Century leaders, Caudillismo in Latin America is a fascinating phenomenon with an interesting history. I am curious to know what do you understand as the caudillo archetype and its origins you date in the conquest if Andalusia and the Canaries, although I'm afraid this subject could be off-topic.

Well to start with what were Cortes and Pizarro and other conquistador leaders if not Caudillos? It is often said that the concept of 'caudillo' comes from the reconquista, of a warlord leading a band to grab territory from the Moors in El Andalus or indeed later the Canaries for them and for the Crown of Castile. The conquest of the Spanish Indies was seen as a continuation of the same process, warlords and their bands grabbing land from the heathens for their own benefit but also for the Crown of Castile and the Catholic Church. The Spanish Indies were classified as being part of the Crown of Castile just like the reconquered in El Andalus and Canaries rather than being legally 'colonies' as the British territories in North America were.

That's just what I've read anyway, the Reconquista is not an area of expertise for me, others will know more.

It does seem to me clear however that when the archetype of the Caudillo re-emerged in the XIXth century hispanic America it was an archetype drawing very much from the Spanish side of the American heritage. (but as you say this is a bit off topic)

Well, Cortés and Pizarro belonged to the ranks of the lesser nobility. They were hidalgos, members of a military caste which was unused once the Reconquista was completed with the conquest of Granada. Such event occurred in 1492, the very same year Columbus 'discovered' the 'Western Indies'. It's logical that some of the most unsettled and adventurous among the ranks of the hidalgos tried to search their fortunes in America. As military leaders they can be considered caudillos, like a famous XI century Castilian warlord called El Cid. I guess that Jean de Béthencourt (a baron from Normandy) or Pedro de Vera, whom conquered the Canaries alongside with other warlords, can be considered caudillos too. Then we have the wars of independence and the phenomenon of caudillismo in the new republics (XIX century), the peronist caudillos (my favourites ) and... Franco (Caudillo de España por la Gracia de Dios). I guess that the figure of the warlord is not exclusive of Spain and Latin America, even though the Hispanic caudillos may have some particular characteristics... moreover the term is used to define not only military but political leaders too. It's fascinating, but it'd be off-topic unless we establish a connection with San Martín, Juan Domingo Perón and his disciples


More on topic, Minister of Education Esteban Bullrich runs for the Senate in Buenos Aires province.  Back in March, the man went to the Netherlands with Macri and others in the president's entourage. In the house of Anna Frank, he uttered a sentence which provoked reactions ranging between astonishment and indignation. Bullrich said that Anna Frank is "a very important symbol, especially working in eduction"- "She had dreams, knew what she wanted and those dreams were frustrated, mostly by a leadership which was not able to unite and bring peace to a world that promoted intolerance".

No words can explain...

[Velasco]

According to La Nación, the Mauricio Macri administration is preparing far-reaching reforms to implement after the elections. In order such reforms will be enacted, the main condition is defeating Cristina Fernández in the Buenos Aires province elections. As said before, La Presidenta is running for the Senate. The ruling coalition Cambiemos placed Esteban Bullrich against her.. Macri assured in 2016 that Bullrich would not be candidate because he is "one of the best education ministers" Argentina ever had and is making a "historical reform".

Macri administration wants to promote a fiscal reform, as well a political reform that includes changes in campaign funding; also changes in the public ethics law, regulatory agencies and the judiciary. These are some of the "long term modifications" that the Casa Rosada would want to implement once the "electoral hurdle" is passed. One of the main presidential obsessions is to create employment to reduce poverty. The view of Macri and the entrepreneurship is that goes hand in hand with a reduction of the "Argentinian cost". Accordingly ministers Nicolás Dujovny (Treasury) and Jorge Triaca (Labour) would be working in a broad fiscal reform that suppresses taxes and contributions, promotes legal contracts and combats work in the black economy. The support of the Justicialist Party (Peronist) is key to implement such reforms, especially the support of the provincial governors considered "friendly" by La Casa Rosada. Among the measures on political reform the government would like to see enacted feature the abolition of the PASO (primary elections) and the introduction of electronic vote.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2038961-el-gobierno-prepara-profundas-reformas-para-despues-de-las-elecciones

In other news, yesterday it was the 43 anniversary of the death of Juan Domingo Perón. Former president Carlos Menem, who is running for Senate in La Rioja province, released a video in his Facebook campaign account where he remembers h¡s engagement to politics was motivated by a radio speech made by Perón. The man is apparently touched and on the verge of tears. His supporters hail: "¡Grande, Carlos!". Pure Menem style!

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2038826-el-llanto-de-carlos-menem-al-recordar-a-juan-domingo-peron-que-se-convirtio-en-un-spot-para-su-campana

That's nothing, you have to listen to a full speech by Macri

Do you think it's necessary?

[Velasco]

Elections in Chaco:

An election to renew 16 seats of the Chaco provincial legislature was held yesterday. The peronist Frente Chaco Merece Más ("Chaco Deserves More Front"), which governs the province, won the election with a 12% margin over Cambiemos ("Let's Change"). Trotskysts won a seat, apparently for the first time.

Frente Chaco Merece Más (Justicialist) 46.23%, winning 9 seats
Cambiemos 34.1%, winning 6 seats
Workers' Party (Trotskyst) 5.72%, winning 1 seat

Turnout 56.5%

Incumbent governor is Domingo Peppo, who replaced former cabinet chief (with president Cristina Fernández) and currently mayor of Resistencia (the provincial capital) Jorge Capitanich.

[Velasco]

This was a setback for the Justicialist front then or?

Since:
Chaco
Candidatos a Diputados Nacionales
25 de octubre de 2015

Electores Hábiles   864.891      
% de Votantes   77,28      
Partidos / Alianzas Electorales
ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIAa   343.023   53,75   2
ALIANZA CAMBIEMOSb   179.386   28,11   1
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVAc   92.247   14,46   
DEL OBRERO   12.778   2,00   
ALIANZA PROGRESISTASd   7.845   1,23   
PARTIDO CIUDADANOS A GOBERNAR   2.864   0,45

Not necessarily, since yesterday's was a provincial and not a national election. With regard to the previous election to the provincial legislature, the Justicialist Front lost one seat which went to Cambiemos. The seat won by the Workers' Party (Partido Obrero, PO) was previously held by a former member of the governing alliance who later became independent, apparently. It was just a minor provincial election.