Clinton 2016 states most likely to flip
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Poll
Question: What Democratic-voting swing states do you think are most likely to flip? Pick 3
#1
New Hampshire		  
#2
Minnesota		  
#3
Maine		  
#4
Nevada		  
#5
Colorado		  
#6
Virginia		  
#7
New Mexico		  
#8
Other (comment below)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Clinton 2016 states most likely to flip  (Read 769 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: June 06, 2017, 08:31:38 PM »
There's a thread on this for R-voting states, so here's the flipside... what Hillary-voting states in 2016 do you think are most likely to change hands in 2020?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2017, 08:33:40 PM »
Maine, followed by Minnesota (and Nevada, but that's a stretch).
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2017, 08:41:18 PM »
Most to least likely:

Maine
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Virginia
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JGibson
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2017, 09:33:28 PM »
New Hampshire
Maine's 2 statewide ECVs
Minnesota
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2017, 10:22:54 PM »
New Hampshire
Maine-AL
Minnesota
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2017, 10:47:42 PM »
NH and Nevada (I calculated these with Wisconsin would put Trump over the top by 10,instead of Pennsylvania and Michigan), and Maine.

Minnesota like Arizona for Dems has never really cracked 45% under any circumstance and didn't even vote for Reagan once


As for least: New Mexico, the Democrats Missouri.
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Spark
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2017, 10:57:17 PM »
NH, ME, & MN
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2017, 10:59:13 PM »
Minnesota is not flipping as long as the 2020 Dem nominee doesn't get caught up in the same hubris as HRC. 4 years of Trump will cool off the surge of support he managed to garner in the weeks leading up to Nov. 8.
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Da2017
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2017, 11:34:50 PM »
I will go with New Hampshire. Trump lost it by .3. If he makes a bit Inroads with the college educated he has a good shot.  Not sure about Minnesota. It is surprising that Minnesota was to the right of the popular vote.
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TML
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2017, 09:57:06 AM »
For those of you surprised at Minnesota's 2016 result: remember that in both 2000 and 2004 MN was decided by less than 5%. Neighboring states IA and WI were both decided by a fraction of a percent in both elections. Thus, if IA and/or WI swing rightward, as they did in 2016, then it is plausible that MN would be competitive.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2017, 11:43:43 AM »
If Trump were to improve on his 2016 performance it would mostly involve bringing moderate GOP suburbanites back into the fold, that would help him in each of these states (save maybe ME) but especially in NH, CO, NV and VA
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2017, 12:02:25 PM »
It really looks like the rural North and Great Lakes could be the equivalent to Trump as Virginia and Colorado were to Obama. Colorado and Virginia could be to Trump what Missouri was to Obama. The states that seemed winnable but are trending away too quickly.

In 2020, if we are going through a renewal of the Reagan realignment, Colorado and Virginia will probably finally come home. If Trump gets what is now coming to him, or even if he pulls off another Field Goal or Safety margin win, Colorado and Virginia will have margins similar to New Mexico or do about as well as W did in NJ or Oregon.   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2017, 12:52:51 PM »
<30% chance ME 2 will flip

The way Trump has governed with his ethics this will be the new blue wall
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2017, 01:18:43 PM »
Quote from: Da-Jon on June 07, 2017, 12:52:51 PM
<30% chance ME 2 will flip

The way Trump has governed with his ethics this will be the new blue wall



... wasn't this the old blue wall? You know, the one that crumbled...?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2017, 01:32:19 PM »
Yeah, because of ethics, but the ethics probe into Trump as Comey testifies at the moment is damaging.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2017, 04:09:46 PM »
Calling a bunch of (now-)swing states a "blue wall" is foolish.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2017, 05:14:57 PM »
Most Likely to Least Likely:

1. Minnesota
2. New Hampshire
3. Maine
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
6. Virginia (tie)
6. New Mexico (tie)
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1978 New Wave skinny trousers
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2017, 06:10:20 PM »
Most Likely to Least Likely

1. New Hampshire
2. Maine
3. Minnesota
4. Nevada
5. Colorado
6. Virginia
7. New Mexico
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MarkD
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2017, 06:45:12 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2017, 10:52:15 PM by MarkD »
NH is clearly the most likely to flip, and next to that I guess VA and CO.
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2017, 12:51:19 PM »
I only think NH, ME, MN, and NV will flip in a close election. If Trump is somehow on fire, he will win CO,VA,NH and maybe even OR or DE.
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