Demographics of white Democrats in Mississippi

[Jesus save us]

As I'm sure we're all aware, Mississippi whites vote overwhelmingly for the Republicans(+90% of whites in 2016). But what are the demographics of the handful of whites who vote Democratic? Are a significant number holdouts from the Solid South of yore who haven't gotten the memo? Are they demographically similar to white Democrats elsewhere(disproportianately young, college educated, urban, poor, and female)? Are they disproportionately in mixed-race marriages/partnerships?

[White Trash]

Assuming that they are similar to white Democrats in Louisiana, they are younger, tend to more urban and are often college students. While there are exceptions to the rule, they are few in number.

[Stranger in a strange land]

As I'm sure we're all aware, Mississippi whites vote overwhelmingly for the Republicans(+90% of whites in 2016). But what are the demographics of the handful of whites who vote Democratic? Are a significant number holdouts from the Solid South of yore who haven't gotten the memo? Are they demographically similar to white Democrats elsewhere(disproportianately young, college educated, urban, poor, and female)? Are they disproportionately in mixed-race marriages/partnerships?

Up until about 10 years ago there were, but those people have mostly either died off or switched over to voting Republican. White Democrats in MS are mostly actual liberals nowadays, and are disproportionately young and from out of state.

IIRC (and this is half-remembered, possibly outdated information) Mississippi has one of the lowest rates of interracial marriage in the country, though the few who are are probably more likely to vote Democratic.

[SingingAnalyst]

As I'm sure we're all aware, Mississippi whites vote overwhelmingly for the Republicans(+90% of whites in 2016). But what are the demographics of the handful of whites who vote Democratic? Are a significant number holdouts from the Solid South of yore who haven't gotten the memo? Are they demographically similar to white Democrats elsewhere(disproportianately young, college educated, urban, poor, and female)? Are they disproportionately in mixed-race marriages/partnerships?

Up until about 10 years ago there were, but those people have mostly either died off or switched over to voting Republican. White Democrats in MS are mostly actual liberals nowadays, and are disproportionately young and from out of state.

IIRC (and this is half-remembered, possibly outdated information) Mississippi has one of the lowest rates of interracial marriage in the country, though the few who are are probably more likely to vote Democratic.

Probably true. In 2000, MS had the lowest proportion of people identifying as mixed-race (0.6%) of any state.

[Beet]

"I'm disproportionately a trial lawyer."

jk

[TDAS04]

Maybe college students in such places as Oxford and Starkville, though most of them are probably Republican too.

[Indy Texas]

In all likelihood,

-Non-corporate lawyers in Jackson
-University professors/employees in Oxford, Hattiesburg, etc
-Doctors (especially younger ones or "provisionally white" ones, i.e. Jews, South Asians)

[Technocracy Timmy]

In all likelihood,

-Non-corporate lawyers in Jackson
-University professors/employees in Oxford, Hattiesburg, etc
-Doctors (especially younger ones or "provisionally white" ones, i.e. Jews, South Asians)

Is this also the case in WISsissippi?

[Tintrlvr]

"I'm disproportionately a trial lawyer."

jk

Close to literally all of the white Democrats in Mississippi over the age of 30 are probably either professors or plaintiff's lawyers.

Edit: Or teachers.

[7,052,770]

Educated professionals in the Jackson area or college towns

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I would imagine the state Jewish percentage to be low, but since white Democrats are so pitifully low a percentage as well, maybe Jews could be a decent junk?

[RINO Tom]

Educated professionals in the Jackson area or college towns

Couldn't find anything on 2016, but in 2014, college grads were significantly more Republican than those without one, and the income trend was much steeper ... so I'm curious why you think educated professionals in MS are more attracted to the state Democratic Party than to the state GOP, when stats seem to suggest otherwise.  There isn't much reason, as far as I can tell, to believe an educated and professional White voter in MS is more likely to be a Democrat than a White without a degree or has a lower paying job.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The thing is that we aren't looking for any one group that is majority Democratic, but, rather, groups that are 15-20% Democratic instead of 5-10%, and I would certainly look to urban whites and even some lower class rural whites.  When whites vote 90%+ Republican, the few stragglers are probably from a bunch of different groups.

[7,052,770]

Educated professionals in the Jackson area or college towns

Couldn't find anything on 2016, but in 2014, college grads were significantly more Republican than those without one, and the income trend was much steeper ... so I'm curious why you think educated professionals in MS are more attracted to the state Democratic Party than to the state GOP, when stats seem to suggest otherwise.  There isn't much reason, as far as I can tell, to believe an educated and professional White voter in MS is more likely to be a Democrat than a White without a degree or has a lower paying job.

No, I know that white college grads are more likely to be Republican than Democratic, I'm just saying that the white (especially liberal white) Democratic voting bloc here is disproportionately composed of young urban (by Mississippi standards)/college town professionals.

I would imagine the state Jewish percentage to be low, but since white Democrats are so pitifully low a percentage as well, maybe Jews could be a decent junk?

According to this website, there are only around 1,500 Jews in Mississippi.

[OneJ]

https://fusiontables.google.com/DataSource?docid=1UVNwaKv9xnAwuLv6Z7tFWxV5pu19qB6CIVGtIUsH#map:id=3

According to that link, white Democrats are numerous in Noxubee & Lafayette counties. They also make up a good portion in Jefferson and Claibourne counties (majority black, Delta counties).

Tom made a good point. Madison County is a highly educated county which contains some of Jackson's suburbs and has a sizable median income (higher than the national average). Clinton is estimated to have only garnered 12.5% of the white vote here (and whites swung towards her too). Desoto County is also in a similar situation. It has the second highest median income behind Madison and only 13.9% were estimated to vote for Hillary.

Clinton apparently didn't do much better in Hinds where most of Jackson lies (it's estimated she only got 17.6%).

[smoltchanov]

There are few reasons besides ideology for white to run as a "Black (Democratic) party candidate", when he/she can make much better political career as Republican. Even for moderate conservative, even more so - for "pure conservative". And vast majority of whites in Mississippi belongs to one of these two categories.

[TDAS04]

What were the percentages of the white vote that Trump and Hillary got statewide?

[SingingAnalyst]

What were the percentages of the white vote that Trump and Hillary got statewide?

Roughly 10% for Clinton, 88% Trump, I believe.

[smoltchanov]

^ And that eesentially means - few liberal white professors and students here and there, may be - few trial lawyers, and that essentially all. I am aware of  exactly 1 (one) really liberal white Democratic legislator in Mississippi.

[SoLongAtlas]

Lawyers, professors, some contractors, people that still live there but don't want to.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Four places I can think of:
*Some suburban whites in DeSoto and Rankin counties
*White liberals within the city of Jackson
*College professors/students in Lafayette County at Ole Miss
*Maybe some along the gulf coast who work in the tourism industry

[Matty]

Old whites with bad vision.

[Del Tachi]

White liberals, like white Democrats in every other state in the country.

[Adam Griffin]

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:



Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.

There's also potentially the issue of past exit polls in states like MS, AL & LA underestimating white Democratic support for some reason: it's something I encountered when doing my 2012 county breakdowns and when just delving into 08/12 exit polling data for these states, and have written about on here in the past.

There were instances where the exit polls did not match the confirmed demographic turnout whatsoever; instances where I maxed out black turnout beyond what was reported and gave 100% of the black vote to Obama and yet there was still a discrepancy that could only be explained by an underestimation of white Democratic support in these areas. I don't necessarily buy the 10% for MS & LA, nor the 15% figure for AL.

[smoltchanov]

^ I guess vote by age statistics includes both whites and blacks?