Demographics of white Democrats in Mississippi

[Del Tachi]

White liberals, like white Democrats in every other state in the country.

[Del Tachi]

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:

Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.
 

Not necessarily, a lot of liberal young people in Mississippi probably leave the state and that is probably a major factor in why the older-cohorts are so Republican-voting.

[Del Tachi]

Obligatory reminder that in 2012, Romney only won the under-65 crowd in MS by 5 points:

Relatively young (i.e. non-ancient) whites in Mississippi are probably no less Democratic than whites in, say, Georgia. They're not that much of an anomaly. You're still looking at a majority-white electorate (anywhere from 50/50 to 55/45) even in the 18-29 grouping, meaning that anywhere from 20-25% of those whites are voting Democratic.

It's pretty obvious when looking at both the exit polls and general demography of the state by age that older blacks do not really vote at all in Mississippi (the legacy of the times in which they were raised). This is the predominant problem with flipping MS, but once they - and their white cohorts that are voting 95% R - pass on, the state becomes much more competitive.
 

Not necessarily, a lot of liberal young people in Mississippi probably leave the state and that is probably a major factor in why the older-cohorts are so Republican-voting.

But this is already a factor that is already occurring/accounted for, no?

If you fast-forward 20 years, under the assumption that:

1) -5 points in margin: an 80/20 white electorate that's voting 95% R is gone and replaced with a 70/30 white electorate that is 85% R among whites

2) -10 points in margin: the middle age-groups include a larger percentage of black voters; say, from 30% black to 40% black

3) -1.5 points in margin: maintain the 20% white support among the young whites who are being minted there (also factoring in a larger percentage of voters in this age group being black as well)

Then it'd be a pretty big shift.

I don't think you can extrapolate the voting habits of the 18-29 year old cohort out as they age because these young Democrats probably leave the state at higher rates than younger conservatives.

Mississippi is the worst state in the country for college graduates, while the cost of living here is phenomenally low compared to places even like Metro Atlanta and Nashville there is still a heavy brain drain occurring.  I think a lot of the young talent the state loses to its neighbors would be from more Democratically-inclined youth.