U.S. Elections Without 9/11

[Lord Admirale]

How would all U.S. elections go if 9/11 never happened?

I'd say George W. Bush loses reelection to John Kerry in 2004, but I'm not sure how 2008 would go for Kerry.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

2002: Democrats gain in the Senate and barely fail to take the House
2004: Democrat (Gore, Kerry, or Dean) defeats Bush and Democrats take the House
2006: Republicans take the House and Democrats keep the Senate with the tie-breaking vote of the VP
2008: Republican (McCain, either Bush, Romney, Huckabee) defeats the Democratic president and Republicans take the Senate
2010: Democrats take both chambers
2012: Republican President is reelected alongside an all-Democratic Congress
2014: Little to no change
2016: God knows

[Medal506]

2004: John Kerry/John Edwards defeats George W. Bush/Dick Cheany
2008: John Kerry/John Edwards defeats John McCain/Sam Brownback
2012: Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan defeats Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
2016: Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan defeats Barack Obama/Jim Webb

[Kingpoleon]

309: Wesley Clark/Mary Landrieu - 50.7%
229: George W. Bush/Dick Cheney - 46.2%

350: Governor Richard Hanna/Former NSA Condoleeza Rice - 53.0%
188: President Wesley Clark/Vice President Mary Landrieu - 44.9%

293: President Richard Hanna/Vice President Condoleeza Rice- 49.1%
245: Governor Paul Wellstone/Senator Evan Bayh - 45.2%

291: Senator Evan Bayh/Governor Harold Ford, Jr. - 48.0%
247: Governor Meg Whitman/Senator Richard Tisei - 47.2%

[OSR stands with Israel]

309: Wesley Clark/Mary Landrieu - 50.7%
229: George W. Bush/Dick Cheney - 46.2%

350: Governor Richard Hanna/Former NSA Condoleeza Rice - 53.0%
188: President Wesley Clark/Vice President Mary Landrieu - 44.9%

293: President Richard Hanna/Vice President Condoleeza Rice- 49.1%
245: Governor Paul Wellstone/Senator Evan Bayh - 45.2%

291: Senator Evan Bayh/Governor Harold Ford, Jr. - 48.0%
247: Governor Meg Whitman/Senator Richard Tisei - 47.2%

lol at Dubya losing the south while winning the northwest and the upper Midwest

[dw93]

2002: Democrats retake the house and make gains in the Senate due to a weak economy, the Enron Scandal getting more attention, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than OTL.

2004: A toss up. If Bush does what Bill Clinton did after the 1994 midterms and triangulates, and does so without triggering a primary challenge, he wins:

301: Bush/Cheney
237: Dem. Ticket



If he does not, nothing gets done, and the economy remains weak, he loses to Gephardt, Dean, Edwards, or if things go bad enough, Gore:

316: Dem. Ticket
222: Bush/Cheney

2006: If Bush is in his Second Term, there's a six year itch and it's a Democratic year. If the Dems lose one or both houses of Congress in 2004, they retake them in 2006. If a Democrat is in their first term, 2006 is a Republican year, the GOP takes one or both houses of Congress.

2008: If the Financial Crisis happens on Schedule, the incumbent Party loses. If it's delayed and Bush is in the White House, I'd say it leans Democratic but the GOP has a good chance at winning a third term so long as Bush avoids Scandal or international issues. If an Incumbent Democrat is seeking a second term, they have the incumbency advantage. so they have the edge, depending on how things go.

2010: Historical Midterm Trends prevail.

2012: If the financial crisis is delayed until after election day 2008, and especially if it happens after Inauguration day 2009, the incumbent party loses. If it happens right on schedule, it's a toss up.

2014:  See 2010

2016: Who Knows.

[Agonized-Statism]

POD is Bin Laden getting killed in 1998's Operation Infinite Reach. Terrorism continues, but nothing on the scale of 9/11, especially as security is stepped up with each more minor incident. 2002 sees the Democrats retake the House and broaden their majority in the Senate.

2004

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY)
Fmr. Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC) ✓

Gore decides to make a comeback with a more progressive veneer after a year of Enron coverage, the stagnant post-Tech Bubble economy, attempts to privatize Social Security, the Federal Marriage Amendment debate, and most importantly Iraq, which happens anyway and roughly on schedule. Republicans are also somewhat divided over Bush's immigration reform. The election is once again disputed, this time over Ohio.

2008

President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) ✓
Senator George Allen (R-VA) / Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE)

The Gore presidency alienates both the hawks and the doves with its handling of Iraq, its civil war, and the disastrous partition plan that follows. It also sees Hurricane Katrina, Vice President Edwards' resignation over a personal scandal, and to top it off, the Great Recession. While Lieberman ends up VP in 2007 with congressional approval, Gore dumps him in 2008 for the popular 2004 DNC keynote speaker.

2012

President George Allen (R-VA) / Vice President Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Fmr. Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓

With little in the way of stimulus, the Great Recession drags on. President Allen avoids expanding the war into Iran as suggested by those like Secretary of Defense John McCain, however. Hillary Clinton is narrowly coronated over Governor Obama and populist renegade Bernie Sanders.

2016

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA) ✓
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Republican infighting and a recovering, if sluggish economy allows Clinton the first reelection since her husband's in 1996.

2020

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) ✓

COVID breaks out, and Rubio wins the anti-lockdown vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Other than Dems making moderate gains in 2002, not much changes. Bush still wins a close reelection and starts losing popularity after Kathrina and banking crash. The GOP perhaps takes congress back in 2004 and narrowly loses in 2006 again. Obama still wins 2008 handily.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Other than Dems making moderate gains in 2002, not much changes. Bush still wins a close reelection and starts losing popularity after Kathrina and banking crash. The GOP perhaps takes congress back in 2004 and narrowly loses in 2006 again. Obama still wins 2008 handily.

Obama does not get the nomination without Iraq