What Democrat will run in Arizona in 2018?

[diptheriadan]

The Democratic bench in Arizona is a tad thin, and Sinema's running for reelection hasn't made it any longer. Who will run?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Only plausible hope that would turn this into a tossup and could possibly beat Flake is Mark Kelly.

[Figueira]

Sinema actually clarified that she isn't ruling out a Senate run.

Deedra Abboud is already running, FWIW.

[Vosem]

The correct answer here is "unless the environment abruptly worsens for Democrats, Kyrsten Sinema". She has made it clear many times that she has statewide (specifically Senatorial) ambitions, but she's also somewhat cautious (although who knows; she was considering a run against McCain in 2016 before Kirkpatrick announced early, embarrassing her, though probably helping her in the long run).

[The Arizonan]

Only plausible hope that would turn this into a tossup and could possibly beat Flake is Mark Kelly.

This is assuming that Jeff Flake doesn't lose the nomination to Kelli Ward.

[136or142]

From politics1.com

U.S. SENATOR:
Jeff Flake (R)* - (Campaign Site)
Jeff DeWit (R) - State Treasurer, Businessman & Trump Campaign Activist
Robert Graham (R) - State GOP Chair & Businessman ∑
Kelli Ward (R) - Ex-State Sen., Physician, Tea Party Activist & '16 Candidate
Deedra Abboud (D) - Attorney & Muslim-American Community Activist
Randy Friese (D) - State Rep., Surgeon & Navy Veteran
Chris Russell (D) - Attorney & Army Veteran
Doug Marks (Libt) - Application Developer, Army Veteran & Ex-Carpentersville (IL) Town Board Member

Italicized means they are considering running.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Only plausible hope that would turn this into a tossup and could possibly beat Flake is Mark Kelly.

This is assuming that Jeff Flake doesn't lose the nomination to Kelli Ward.

No, he's winning the primary no question about it. His vunerability in the primaries is overated. But if Ward won, it would go from lean R to tilt R with a regular democrat, and lean R to tilt D with Mark Kelly.

[Webnicz]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

[Kamala]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

Or what Glenn was to Ohio.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

Or what Glenn was to Ohio.

Yes, that's also a good analogy.

[Pollster]

A Ward primary upset is not out of the realm of possibility - she took almost 40% of the GOP primary in 2016 and held McCain to just barely above 50%, and McCain is much more entrenched and nationally well-known than Flake, who barely won his first term and underperformed Romney by 4 points.

If Ward remains Flake's only competitor and manages to turn out (and ideally build upon) her 2016 vote, it could very well be a photo finish.

Sinema is a smart political operator who I assume is waiting for the most opportune moment to enter the race. I have no doubt that she is in frequent communication with the DSCC and is using the Dem's thin bench in the state as leverage to secure strong financial support when she does eventually enter.

[Skunk]

I know it's not that big of a deal in her district but, would a bisexual atheist really be able to win statewide in Arizona?

[Pollster]

I know it's not that big of a deal in her district but, would a bisexual atheist really be able to win statewide in Arizona?

In a Clinton midterm, this would allow the GOP nominee to make religious freedom an issue that sticks. In a Trump midterm, this will hold much less resonance but would probably boost turnout among the Mormon voters who rejected Trump.

[BuckeyeNut]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

Or what Glenn was to Ohio.

Yes, that's also a good analogy.

... Is it? Ohio and Florida have special ties to space and good reason to love astronauts. Kelly is a good man from all I can tell, but that doesn't make him Nelson or Glenn.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

Or what Glenn was to Ohio.

Yes, that's also a good analogy.

... Is it? Ohio and Florida have special ties to space and good reason to love astronauts. Kelly is a good man from all I can tell, but that doesn't make him Nelson or Glenn.

America loves astronauts, especially ones who are more moderate, have a popular wife, good family values, name recognition, and a highly decorated naval veteran who served in the gulf war. And not yet, but he definitely has the potential. No pushover for sure.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Only plausible hope that would turn this into a tossup and could possibly beat Flake is Mark Kelly.

This is assuming that Jeff Flake doesn't lose the nomination to Kelli Ward.

Yeah. She's consolidating the Trumpist/anti-Flake vote from the looks of it. She's probably so toxic as to move it to leans safe D.

Ain't no way a chemtrail conspiracy theorist is winning a Senate seat

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Only plausible hope that would turn this into a tossup and could possibly beat Flake is Mark Kelly.

This is assuming that Jeff Flake doesn't lose the nomination to Kelli Ward.

Yeah. She's consolidating the Trumpist/anti-Flake vote from the looks of it. She's probably so toxic as to move it to leans safe D.

Ain't no way a chemtrail conspiracy theorist is winning a Senate seat

yeah, she is way overated and flake's vulnerability is way overated in both the primary and the general.

[BuckeyeNut]

I wish Kelley or Giffords would run, its interesting how they are both pro gun reform but are likely the best dems to win, Compared to Kirkpatrick who was pro gun.
If Dewitt runs I expect Sinema to run as well but the chances of Dewitt doing so is slim.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Kelly ward does have a decent following... I mean check out her facebook. these guys are super loyalist.

Giffords is not in the best physical shape to be running, I would totally respect it if she just remained retired throughout her life, but Kelly should give it a go, who knows, he could be what Bill Nelson is to Florida...

Or what Glenn was to Ohio.

Yes, that's also a good analogy.

... Is it? Ohio and Florida have special ties to space and good reason to love astronauts. Kelly is a good man from all I can tell, but that doesn't make him Nelson or Glenn.

America loves astronauts, especially ones who are more moderate, have a popular wife, good family values, name recognition, and a highly decorated naval veteran who served in the gulf war. And not yet, but he definitely has the potential. No pushover for sure.

I'm just not sure about that first point being true anymore. Carmona was an excellent candidate, but he ran in the wrong year. It's a shame he's done.

[Pollster]

Disregard Ward at your own peril - she has a clear base that could be enough to win the primary if turnout is low enough.

[henster]

I am surprised by the lack of buzz around Ruben Gallego a Latino Iraq War vet seems like a good fit for rapidly diversifying Arizona.

[Pollster]

I am surprised by the lack of buzz around Ruben Gallego a Latino Iraq War vet seems like a good fit for rapidly diversifying Arizona.

Gallego will be viable statewide in Arizona once the Latino population becomes a high enough share of the statewide population and are fully mobilized as an electorate (i.e. the perfect storm that re-elected Reid in 2010). Until then he would struggle to hit 40% among this state's predominantly older and whiter electorate, especially the Mormon population.

One thing that makes Arizona difficult for Dems is that Phoenix (while still quite liberal) is one of the less liberal metro areas in the country. A Democrat with a base outside of the Phoenix area would be a stronger statewide candidate.

[Webnicz]

I am surprised by the lack of buzz around Ruben Gallego a Latino Iraq War vet seems like a good fit for rapidly diversifying Arizona.

Dems should be targeting the east valley, they need to close the margin in CD-5 & 6 which I think they can, especially in CD6 if they use the ossoff strategy and appeal to the wealthy in Scottsdale.

But ruben gallego is far to much to the left to appeal to CD5 and CD 6 voters, Im not saying Dems will ever win in these regions but the margins in these suburbs are what have been killing the dems for the last decade.

[Orser67]

Probably some random state legislator, who could still win depending on the national environment. Although the demise of Sinema's candidacy has been greatly exaggerated. Still plenty of time to enter the race.

[The Arizonan]

I am surprised by the lack of buzz around Ruben Gallego a Latino Iraq War vet seems like a good fit for rapidly diversifying Arizona.

Gallego will be viable statewide in Arizona once the Latino population becomes a high enough share of the statewide population and are fully mobilized as an electorate (i.e. the perfect storm that re-elected Reid in 2010). Until then he would struggle to hit 40% among this state's predominantly older and whiter electorate, especially the Mormon population.

One thing that makes Arizona difficult for Dems is that Phoenix (while still quite liberal) is one of the less liberal metro areas in the country. A Democrat with a base outside of the Phoenix area would be a stronger statewide candidate.

Phoenix has a slight Democratic lean, but the metropolitan area has a heavy Republican lean. Maricopa County has a heavy Republican lean and hasn't voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1948.