GA-07: Businessman David Kim running for D nomination
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  GA-07: Businessman David Kim running for D nomination
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Author Topic: GA-07: Businessman David Kim running for D nomination  (Read 1527 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 07, 2017, 03:58:14 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2017, 04:00:59 PM »

Good news
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2017, 04:04:37 PM »

I think this one is very tough for 2018 but I can see it flipping in 2020. Not hard seeing a Democratic victory at the presidential level in 2020 and includes a congressional flip if Dems find a candidate.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2017, 04:08:33 PM »

I don't believe this seat is vulnerable, so whatever.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2017, 04:15:53 PM »

There's always a random seat or two (or more) flipping that no one ever sees coming. This could be that dostrict

Unlikely, less democratic than GA-06, would be outside of the path to 217
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2017, 04:49:07 PM »

It's worth noting that the Gwinnett County portion did not vote for Trump, so most of the Republican strength is reliant on Forsyth County. A good registration effort in Gwinnett would erode some of that strength.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2017, 05:11:04 PM »

Based on pre-2016 fundamentals, this district is more vulnerable on paper than GA-6. Incumbency, educational attainment/income and mid-term voting propensities for non-black, non-white voters will affect said mileage in 2018, however.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2017, 12:41:01 PM »

Forsyth County is 10% Asian as of 2015, up from 6% in 2010. Non-hispanic White has dropped from 80% to 75% over this time frame. It's not Gwinnett and it's not as diverse as DeKalb, but it's a surprising change with growth considering its history.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2017, 06:05:03 PM »

Forsyth County is 10% Asian as of 2015, up from 6% in 2010. Non-hispanic White has dropped from 80% to 75% over this time frame. It's not Gwinnett and it's not as diverse as DeKalb, but it's a surprising change with growth considering its history.

And the demographic change in Forsyth is not evenly distributed through the county.  The southern part (which is in CD-7) is diversifying faster than the northern part.  This is not to say I expect a D win in 2018, unless there's a huge wave.  2020 may be a decent shot, though.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2017, 09:53:21 PM »

I remember noting this district back when the results first came out. This district swung from 60-38 Romney to 51-45 Trump, and it's reflected in the way both Gwinnett and Forsynth counties are trending. I originally thought it may still be a bit out of reach for Democrats, but now I'm starting to think by 2018, it could very well be in play. It'll definitely be a tougher target than GA-06 for Dems though.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2017, 11:07:38 PM »

I could see this being vulnerable in 2022 after redistricting, but probably not now.
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