UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Champion indeed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

Swing not particularly meaningful this election given the UKIP collapse and the mobilisation of the student vote.

I know that that's likely what we would see in a swing map, but why isn't it interesting to see?

I posted a link to one, in case you missed it.

I'd seen that NYT abomination before, yeah. That sure as hell doesn't qualify as a map.

[Oryxslayer]

I made my own swing map yesterday so there are probably a few small errors hidden around. Unfortunately because I am new (long time lurker) someone else should probably get it from the current location on alternate history forums's OTL maps and resources thread.

I added three way swings when I realized that Scotland wasn't making sense with the top two system. The also make an appearance in 3 way seats in the south.

[Famous Mortimer]

If they had approved ranked choice voting, and you combined the votes of Labour and SNP, would Labour and SNP have a majority?

[Helsinkian]

Which constituency has the lowest winning vote share? Ceredigion was won with 29.2%; are there constituencies which were won with less than that?

[rob in cal]

   What if the Boundary Review commission had finished its work for this election, with a 600 seat House of Commons.  Would Tories have done a little better?

[136or142]

Which constituency has the lowest winning vote share? Ceredigion was won with 29.2%; are there constituencies which were won with less than that?

Is that in Wales?

[Helsinkian]

Which constituency has the lowest winning vote share? Ceredigion was won with 29.2%; are there constituencies which were won with less than that?

Is that in Wales?

Yes, Plaid Cymru gain from Lib Dems.

[MaxQue]

Survation apparently has a poll out, where Labour leads 45-39.

Should kill any early election speculation and possibly finish off May.

[Phony Moderate]

To add to that, I've just been doing the rounds at various drinking holes and talking to a number of people (a majority of whom probably voted Tory on Thursday) and have come to the conclusion that the Tories will suffer a 1931-in-reverse result if May leads them into the next election.

[Leftbehind]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions - did these regions consist of the same constituencies that make up the EU regions?

[MaxQue]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions - did these regions consist of the same constituencies that make up the EU regions?

Yes (with the exception of Gibraltar, which is in SW region for European election and is not represented in Westminster).

[Leftbehind]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions - did these regions consist of the same constituencies that make up the EU regions?

Yes (with the exception of Gibraltar, which is in SW region for European election and is not represented in Westminster).

Awesome - that makes things easier.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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[MaxQue]

News reports there is no deal with DUP yet, apparently Downing Street sent the wrong press release.

[Antonio the Sixth]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

[Leftbehind]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

2010 (click on a region)
2005 (click the drop-down on the right)
2001 (click the dropdown in the middle)

[Leftbehind]

It seems the 2001 and prior results don't follow the EU regions - the 2001 results just have 'North' with Cumbria's results in with the North East. 2005 onwards follow EU regions and have that in with the North West.

[Antonio the Sixth]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

2010 (click on a region)
2005 (click the drop-down on the right)
2001 (click the dropdown in the middle)

No 2015?

[Leftbehind]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

2010 (click on a region)
2005 (click the drop-down on the right)
2001 (click the dropdown in the middle)

No 2015?

Not from the Beeb, no. Like this year's, they've changed (for the worse) how they present the results. But you can find them from a parliamentary document (pdf at the bottom).

[NOVA Green]

Liverpool wasnt a coal mining area though (a bit around St Helens, but not to anything like the extent of S Yorks other parts of Lancashire). It wasnt even a major manufacturing centre like Manchester. It was chiefly a port city, with a huge Irish immigrant population, so maybe that legacy has meant it stayed more outward looking?

I struggle to believe that Hillsborough would have had such a huge impact on local politics.

And yet Liverpool votes well to the left of other working class areas (80% labour, as opposed to 60% labour in Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds - lower than that in smaller towns like Dewsbury)

And Liverpool was much stronger remain territory than Leeds, or Sheffield, or Birmingham. Which are all wealthier cities. Even Knowsley voted to remain, Knowsley!

I meant to say it's left-wingerism is equivalent to coal mining areas (and even more these days).

Militant was stronger in Liverpool than other working class cities.

Football, plays a huge part into it, from Hillsborough to Robbie Fowler's support of the docker's strike, and the club being generally left-wing.

Liverpool is the most left-wing city bar Glasgow in the UK.

I must confess that Liverpool has always had a special place in my heart since I first visited the City as a young Yank college kid way back in 1994...

The first morning I was there, I skipped the breakfast at the B&B and joined a student march of some 2,000 led by a Trot student association for "free tuition for college students".

http://www.redpepper.org.uk/welcome-to-liverpool-a-heartland-of-the-rebel-cause/

The next day, I spend some time walking around Central Neighborhoods in the City, and hung out in some of the joints in the article above, as well as the African-Caribbean-English Community of Toxteth, home to the Anti-Thatcher riots of '81 (Shortly after the Brixton Riots), caused by systematic racism and distrust between the local community and law enforcement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Toxteth_riots

So. as I'm walking through Toxteth, I have the following dub-reggae song going through my mind from arguably the best currently living Reggae artist in the world Linton Kwesi Johnson (LKJ)... who speaks in a mixture of prose, poetry, with an awesome beat in the background.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9079wwVF84Y

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linton_Kwesi_Johnson

This was the legacy of Thatcherism in the UK.... massive urban unrest, major strikes, and demonstrations, especially in poor and working-class communities throughout England.

Ok--- so the next day us college kids are meeting with one of the top cops in the City, and I ask "What has the Liverpool Police Department done to improve relations with the Afro-Caribbean community since the riots of '81?".

He actually gave a pretty solid answer, although Thatcher being out of power and the City had just recently had a Trot "Militant" Labour Party majority, likely gave a bit more leeway politically towards a policy where the Police Department had dramatically expanded hiring of "Black Cops", focusing on "Community Policing", and working closely with various neighborhood and community associations throughout Liverpool.

Now, this was only a year before the legendary Dockworkers Strike in Liverpool ('95-97), but this is a Proud City, with arguably one of the most militant Unions in Modern UK History (Other than perhaps the Coal Miners in the '80s), and the colour of their Labour Party is Dark Red and not Light Red.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_dockers%27_strike

Billy Bragg---"Never Cross a Picket Line"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojPTz4VAOMA

So. let's fast forward to 2010....

Look at the Council elections within Liverpool... the Tories haven't been players in forever, but look at what happens to the Liberal Democrats (Hint: Obliterated)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_City_Council

So, pretty clear this is ancestral Labour country with a fighting tradition, and although as elsewhere in the UK we had to beat the Fascists of the National Front back during hard times, even in our soccer pitches, we never once folded to the lies and deceit of the Tories and the UKIP over many decades.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-popular-in-liverpool-sun-could-learn-a7726081.html

So myself, do not find it remarkable that Liverpool not only totally embraced a true Labour candidate like Corbyn, but also is one of the most Left-Wing cities throughout the UK.

Now although I'm not quite ready to do a compare and contrast with Glasgow, my son-in-law grew up there after this parent's fled the Troubles in Ireland, where he met my sister..

So, here's a classic Celtic supporter song, since there were various discussions about the power of Football Clubs in Liverpool and political identity....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awositUJYLM

[YL]

Which constituency has the lowest winning vote share? Ceredigion was won with 29.2%; are there constituencies which were won with less than that?

It was Ceredigion, followed by Belfast South and Lanark & Hamilton East; the latter was an absurdly close three-way result, with Labour only 360 votes behind the SNP winner but coming third.

Speaking of which, it's noticeable that Labour came very close in a lot of Scottish seats; there were seven where they were less than 2 percentage points behind the SNP winner.

[Shadows]

A swing of just 2% from Con to Labour would see the party make 40 gains at next general election. Current total 262. Need 320 for majority.



A swing of just 1% from Lab to Cons at next election would yield 19 gains. Enough for a clear working majority of 16.

This is based on 2017 right? Which website are you using? Please share !

[Lachi]

A swing of just 2% from Con to Labour would see the party make 40 gains at next general election. Current total 262. Need 320 for majority.



A swing of just 1% from Lab to Cons at next election would yield 19 gains. Enough for a clear working majority of 16.

This is based on 2017 right? Which website are you using? Please share !

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
This is the website

[Shadows]

If I take the newest Survation Poll (Lab - 44.8%, Tory 38.9%) & put the regional break-up of data (Scotland, Wales, etc) instead of whole UK, here are the results -

Scotland -

SNP - 29 (-6)
Lab - 14 (+7)
Tory - 11 (-2)
Lib-Dem - 5 (+1)

Wales  -

Lab - 22 (-6)
Tory - 14 (+6)
Plaid - 4 (0)

England -

Lab - 270 (+43)
Tory - 253 (-43)
Lib-Dem - 8(0)

Net Lab Gain of 44 seats despite a 8% swing taking Lab seats to 308 seats (still not enough for a majority). So, Lab can't form a government on their own even with a 5% lead.

Lab - 56 Seats (out of 72) in Scotland in 1997 !
Lab - 56 Seats (out of 72) in Scotland in 2001 !
Lab - 41 Seats (out of 59) in Scotland in 2005 !

Lab needs 64 more seats vs 2017 (not considering Sinn Fein) . They need to hold their result in Wales, get atleast 40 more seats in England & realistically, Lab needs to win more than half of Scotland's seats, atleast get 30, otherwise it is literally impossible to form a Lab government !

Corbyn should focus on building Lab in Scotland !