UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Al, how would you group occupations into a meaningful class structure adapted to a modern service economy? I'm asking mainly because I might have to grapple with that problem myself at some point soon, and I want to at least try to get it right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In most other cities, the urban middle class have largely abandoned the Tories.  See Bristol West, for example, which does contain some working class inner city areas but not enough to explain the scale of the Labour blowout.

Bristol West is a student constituency as much as anything else, but yes they've lost a lot of support in historically middle class districts in all large provincial cities. Of course this reflects as much as anything else the fact that the sort of people living in such places is very different to even twenty years ago: comfortably off and older people have continued to move further out into the suburbs and the countryside and what has replaced them has been further subdivision of houses and a lot of young people with professional job titles but nothing like the level of financial security.

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Tend being something of an understatement! Actually the main bedrock of Tory support, if we're looking at occupations and so on, these days are people with managerial jobs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing to note: various different firms have already (and others will join them) publish findings with grand titles like HOW BRITAIN VOTED or whatever and flourish their numbers around as FACT. You should be very careful about this: the sort of reasonably sound exit polling demographic data that is the norm in other countries is not collected in Britain.

[Leftbehind]

East Midlands:

https://imgur.com/a/Q2F4q

[parochial boy]

I mean, yes, it is. Al or another British poster can correct me if I'm wrong, but, but I really think it boils down to the fact that class is still, if not the, at least one of the defining factors of British political cleavages. It might have been a bit less true this time around (although Al actually suggested earlier that Labour actually made major gains in some working-class areas), but it's still way truer than it ever was in the US.

Class is a major factor in determining party preference etc in much of the country, but it has become increasingly hard to define and measure in statistical terms due to the transition towards a service-dominated economy. This is a problem that the polling industry and the political science community stubbornly refuse to deal with, preferring instead to insist that class simply doesn't matter much now because they're lazy and don't want to have to do hard work. Which is a tricky thing to reconcile with actual existing voting patterns.

A comment I made elsewhere:

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What is also notable is that there are striking house effects from polling firms in terms of what patterns relating to the above system are shown; this is really not a good sign as regards its usefulness.

What did you make of the Great Class Survey that the BBC did a few years ago? dividing people into categories like "Precariat" or "Emergent Service workers". To my eyes, it seemed like a decent attempt to update on the old classifications, maybe a little on the simplistic side, but that would seem to be an inherent risk in any attempt to chop people into generalised social categories.

[Hnv1]

Torygraph readers who voter Labour and Mirror readers who vote Tory who and what are you?

It is good too see FT readership still has a stable Labour base

[Kamala]

Huh. A Davidson leadership would almost be the Conservatives' version of Blairism- a shift towards the centre.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm sure glad Al made his point about the measurement of class before I saw this chart. Otherwise it would have been utterly depressing.

[Kamala]

Huh. A Davidson leadership would almost be the Conservatives' version of Blairism- a shift towards the centre.

Ruth cant run for Tory leadership atm, as she doesn't have seat in westminster,
she stated many times, she's not interested in running for Westminister and rather focus on holyrood

I know she can't, but I'm just hypothesising based on the poll results you posted.

[Hnv1]

Huh. A Davidson leadership would almost be the Conservatives' version of Blairism- a shift towards the centre.

Ruth cant run for Tory leadership atm, as she doesn't have seat in westminster,
she stated many times, she's not interested in running for Westminister and rather focus on holyrood

Can't see how she gets to be first minister without Labour's backing...that won't happen

[rob in cal]

  Saw the breakdown by religion in one poll, can't remember which, that showed that Hindus were far more pro-Conservative than South Asian Moslems.  Are Hindus generally of a much higher income and social status than other South Asian background people?

[YL]

From Alasdair Rae's blog, http://www.statsmapsnpix.com/:

Conservative vote vs. deprivation score in England, 2017


and 2015 for comparison


It's a little weaker in 2017, but still quite strong.

And English consituencies coloured by winner and sorted by deprivation:

[Leftbehind]

Shame the last deprivation scale isn't interactive/more detailed.

[Phony Moderate]

[ApatheticAustrian]

i know questioning sub-samples is silly but what other party could especially "special school teachers" vote for with 20 points?

green/ukip?....

[Shadows]

Theresa May has started borrowing Jeremy Corbyn's campaign slogans

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-slogans-borrow-using-labour-leader-conservative-prime-minister-a7789366.html

Owen Smith rumoured to be in line for a job in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/owen-smith-rumoured-line-job-10621819

Jeremy Corbyn To Tour 60 Tory Marginals As He Keeps Labour On 'General Election Footing'

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-to-tour-60-tory-marginal-seats-permanent-general-election-footing-plp_uk_59403012e4b09ad4fbe39a2f

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sure glad Al made his point about the measurement of class before I saw this chart. Otherwise it would have been utterly depressing.

In addition to all that I wrote earlier, it's worth pointing out that YouGov always shows a particularly small level of divergence between the various ABCDE groups anyway; e.g. only a 9pt difference between Labour AB and DE vote last time which isn't notably different from what they've shown now. I suspect that wrt the Tories the pensioner issue is really blowing up their stats this time, because even with the Brexit backlash there's really no way that...

And again what must always be endlessly, tediously, emphasised is that none of this data (no matter who from) is particularly reliable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Inadvertent self-owning from YouGov on the value of any demo data they produce if you look carefully. Let's just say that newspaper readership figures do not exactly have much relationship to even the weighted sample and I'm sure you can all draw further conclusions and implications.

Of course what YouGov are really good at, somehow, is turning dodgy data into reasonably accurate projections. I suspect the trick is that movement is movement and you still pick it up no matter what...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The North West.

[YL]

Shame the last deprivation scale isn't interactive/more detailed.

The data (or at least the ordering of constituencies, which is all the graphic is based on) can be found here.

As mentioned in the caption there is one Tory seat, Walsall North, in the most deprived decile, and one Labour seat, Sheffield Hallam, in the least deprived decile.  Both, of course, changed hands.

Most deprived Tory constituencies, including all in the top three deciles:
1. Walsall North
2. Clacton
3. Blackpool North & Cleveleys
4. Great Yarmouth
5. Hastings & Rye
6. Stoke on Trent South
7. Plymouth Moor View
8. Torbay
9. Rochford & Southend East
10. Pendle
11. Telford
12. Boston & Skegness
13. South Thanet
14. Northampton South
15. Mansfield
16. Southampton Itchen
17. Camborne & Redruth
18. Morecambe & Lunesdale
19. Sittingbourne & Sheppey
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland
21. North Thanet

Losses last week which would have appeared near the top of that list include Peterborough, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport and Portsmouth South.

Least deprived Labour constituencies in England, including all in the bottom four deciles:
1. Sheffield Hallam
2. Stroud
3. Warwick & Leamington
4. Sefton Central
5. Cambridge
6. Reading East
7. Harrow West
8. Wirral South
9. Leeds North West
10. Warrington South
11. Canterbury
12. Wirral West
13. Penistone & Stocksbridge
14. High Peak
15. Gedling
16. Enfield Southgate
17. York Central
18. Tynemouth
19. City of Durham


(NB this dataset is England only)

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Any leadership poll not considering powerhouse Jacob Rees-Mogg is illegitimate.

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for that link, YL.

West Midlands:
https://imgur.com/a/xYSTt

[Antonio the Sixth]

And again what must always be endlessly, tediously, emphasised is that none of this data (no matter who from) is particularly reliable.

Just why are British polls so bad, exactly? And why after getting it wrong so many times they still haven't worked out a better methodology? This seems a bit baffling.

@NewStatesman
 France and Britain are living each other's 1997 elections, says @PaulineBock



http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/france-and-britain-are-living-each-others-1997-elections

interesting article

There are flaws in the logic (Chirac actually did have a "strong and stable" majority and dissolved the Assembly to try to avoid losing it the next year; of course the socialists actually won the thing; and of course Jospin wasn't exactly Corbyn), but still, wow.

[adma]

Any leadership poll not considering powerhouse Jacob Rees-Mogg is illegitimate.

No kidding

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

lol Rees-Mogg. He isn't even the most powerful or interesting Traditionalist Catholic from Somerset on the British right.