UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Leftbehind]

Huh, I would have thought the North had a swing to labour. Wasn't the only region to swing Conservative the North East?

Thanks for the correction - I'd mixed the 2017 Tory & Labour figures for Y&H up in that tab. The image posted above has been replaced.

[Leftbehind]

Lib Dem strength at 2017 GE (the borders were distinguishable in Inkscape, so I didn't think black fills would be too problematic; it doesn't really concern me still because the entire exercise was to show where they weren't a write-off):-



(click to enlarge).

[adma]

I'd almost have expected a bigger swing in light of Grenfell--then again, in a circumstance where the top 2 parties have 80%+ combined, there's a certain max-out point to be reached, at least for Labour...

[Velasco]

Lib Dem strength at 2017 GE (the borders were distinguishable in Inkscape, so I didn't think black fills would be too problematic; it doesn't really concern me still because the entire exercise was to show where they weren't a write-off):-



(click to enlarge).

Turn border lines into white and problem solved. White lines are more distinguishable with dark colours, albeit problematic when using light colours as canary yellow. I have the impression that we've been using the same base map. Could it be?

https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/uk20172.png

[Shadows]

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Seat Projection -

CON       283 (-35)
LAB        308 (+46)
Lib-Dem  10 (-2)
SNP        27 (-8)
Greens     1  (0)
PlaidC      3  (-1)

Still not enough for a majority. Lab can go to 44/45% & get a 3-4-5% lead & still fall short of a majority until they do better in Scotland.

SNP has to crash & Lab has to win 20 more seats in Scotland atleast compared to this !

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note remarks made previously about the problems with the ABCDE system (though note as well that this firm shows larger differences than YouGov). Ipsos-MORI are confirmed as a firm that classifies nearly all pensioners as DE.

But some spectacularly sh!t takes on the data from media idiots, but that's hardly as surprise. That Ipsos-MORI have joined in as well - hahaha at the spin on the bar charts there, Jesus that's woeful - isn't surprising.

[Boston Bread]

Looking at the Ipsos Mori exit poll, two things that struck out at me were the huge difference between men under 30 (LAB at 52) and women under 30 (LAB at 73) and the Conservatives only winning leave voters by 7 and losing remain voters by 14.

Those are rather unlikely figures, IMO.

[IceAgeComing]

its not an exit poll and although its got a larger sample size than normal; cross tabs that small aren't going to be particularly accurate.

[Bumaye]

Still not enough for a majority. Lab can go to 44/45% & get a 3-4-5% lead & still fall short of a majority

 
  
You make that sound so negative. I'd say that's a very good thing. If you get 45% of the votes your shouldn't have a majority in parliament because, well, you didn't got the majority of the votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

its not an exit poll and although its got a larger sample size than normal; cross tabs that small aren't going to be particularly accurate.

Correct. These are the best numbers you're going to see, but they're hardly ideal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, and this was clear enough from the results but whatever, Labour's coalition at the election = workers, the young and minorities; the Tories coalition at the election = pensioners, managers and yr classic swing voter types. I mean this only in extremely crude terms of course.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

[Antonio the Sixth]

By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.

What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

Essex man aka Mondeo man

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex_man

UGH

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

People who aren't rich yet are comfortably off whatever their exact occupation (but are vulnerable to economic shocks; often mortgaged up to the hilt etc), who often live in post-1970 detached housing, and generally have very aspirational/materialistic (delete according to taste; I'm assuming you would use the latter word) lifestyles. Increasingly rare under a certain age for obvious reasons.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Silly question but watching the surprisingly delicate Tory-DUP-dance......would a possible labour - SNP - coalition be possible anyway?

[DKrol]

Silly question but watching the surprisingly delicate Tory-DUP-dance......would a possible labour - SNP - coalition be possible anyway?

If I remember correctly, they come up with even fewer seats than Tory-DUP.

[Babeuf]

Silly question but watching the surprisingly delicate Tory-DUP-dance......would a possible labour - SNP - coalition be possible anyway?

Assuming you're talking about workability if the numbers were hypothetically there, I think it would be difficult but definitely possible. The SNP wouldn't want to be seen causing a Labour government to fall and therefore letting the Tories back in so that would be Labour's messaging whenever things got precarious IMO. They would cause a lot of trouble though.

Obviously on the current numbers they don't have the seats to form a government together.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Silly question but watching the surprisingly delicate Tory-DUP-dance......would a possible labour - SNP - coalition be possible anyway?

If I remember correctly, they come up with even fewer seats than Tory-DUP.

i meant of course what Babeuf was talking about, pardon for not being more clear.

@Babeuf - exactly my point, since coalitions are less "normal" in the UK, i wondered if that would have been as difficult as tories and DUP, thanks so much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Numbers in Parliament for any form of Labour government do not exist. Relations between Labour and the SNP are very bad; actively poisonous actually.

[Helsinkian]

The difference between allying oneself with the DUP as opposed to the SNP is, of course, that the DUP wants to retain the integrity of the United Kingdom whereas the SNP wants Scotland to leave the UK.

[Lachi]

May would want to hope that none of her own rebel.

[Former President tack50]

The difference between allying oneself with the DUP as opposed to the SNP is, of course, that the DUP wants to retain the integrity of the United Kingdom whereas the SNP wants Scotland to leave the UK.

To be fair, is the "vote Tory or Labour will break up the UK" rhethoric as prevalent in the UK as here in Spain? (where "breaking up Spain" is one of the main arguments of the right)

[IceAgeComing]

well it seemed to work for them in 2015...