UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[parochial boy]

This is totally anecdotal of course, but I was talking to some of the people I used to work with in London. In 2015, I would say about 70% voted Conservative, this time, not a single one is.

Obviously, middle class twenty-somethings in London are a bit of an odd demographic in this election, but there are definitely a crowd of more-or-less socially liberal, right leaning voters who are plumping for the Communist over the Fascist.

[parochial boy]

This is totally anecdotal of course, but I was talking to some of the people I used to work with in London. In 2015, I would say about 70% voted Conservative, this time, not a single one is.

Obviously, middle class twenty-somethings in London are a bit of an odd demographic in this election, but there are definitely a crowd of more-or-less socially liberal, right leaning voters who are plumping for the Communist over the Fascist.

Sure sure.

What always amuses me on Election Days are the stories told by Lefties. The best are:

- All Cons/Republicans/Right-Wingers I know (and I know a lot despite living in a left-wing bubble with of course no immigrants, older People outside family and people I disagree with cause I'm totally tolerant except for other opinions) stay home/vote the other way.
- Turnout in my left-wing are is skyrocking, never have I seen such a long queue
- I spoke with people in the line and all were voting left-wing, some haven't voted in 100 years, even people normally voting the other side admitted proudly they support us.
- texted with a friend in a heavily rural area and NOBODY was in the voting room when he voted, turnout is down there.


We'll see how it turns out, maybe you should look more at the weather forcast cause it's your side depending on low information, sluggish voters to come out.

Can you actually read English?

ah, forget it, I don't want to engage with the living embodiment of a logical fallacy.

[parochial boy]

Klartext, serious question, do you know the difference between fact and fiction?

[parochial boy]

I didn't make up a totally laughable story of 70% Tory vote to Zero in a landslide Tory victory election but I recalled trends that were correct in the end.

But I didn't expect a Communist (btw, "Fascist" is the new code word for "not left") to understand the difference.

Please learn English, I was talking about a specific group of about 10 people that I know, as an example of a general trend that everyone basically knows is going on.

You exploded that into some massive strawman because you are self evidently not capable of behaving like an adult or of discerning  truth from fiction, and instead have to be some sort of parody of a low-intelligence hysterical fascist.

[parochial boy]

Don't feed the troll, FFS.
I've put him in ignore list months ago yet I end up reading his posts because of all the people quoting him.

My bad, sorry, overreacted to a blatant troll :$

On a more serious note, ignore the rumours swirling around - I've seen loads going in both directions, generally by hugely partisan types.

A high youth turn out could swing a few seats as well; Canterbury and Derby North stick out as examples. It could also keep places like Southampton Test Safe

[parochial boy]

What is the Ipsos-MORI change from the previous poll?

Labour down 4, Tories down 1

Like Yougov, Ipsos-Mori changed their model for the final poll to prevent any outlier result.
Their last poll was 45-40 which was bigger for the big parties than other polls.

That's the thing right? the pollsters have all changed their models so many times that they're basically guessing. Even if one of them happens to be spot on it will be more down to pure fluke than any inherent improvements to their methodology.

[parochial boy]

How is Sunderland such a safe labour area when it voted heavily for brexit?

A million other people beat me to it, but White Working Class people in Britain, especially in the North, still vote Labour.

(see the earlier topic "do coal miners vote tory, labour or lib dem?")

[parochial boy]

This is... the best thing ever...

[parochial boy]

So presumably, the SNP have much more clout in forcing a second referendum, even if they do lose almost half their seats

[parochial boy]

I don't see how anyone could have realistically expected Sunderland to swing towards Labour this time round...

[parochial boy]

I don't see how anyone could have realistically expected Sunderland to swing towards Labour this time round...

The exit poll was saying that...

Yeah, but, come on...

[parochial boy]

Rumors are that Kensington is tight between LAB and CON

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[parochial boy]

Rumors are that Kensington is tight between LAB and CON

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!








No

[parochial boy]

Washington and Sunderland West shows another swing to the Tories. If this is in a safe seat... then what do the marginals look like?

It may be that Tories' gains are distributed much less efficiently. Winning in Leave areas where Labour hold on anyway, losing (as in: swing to Labour) in areas that are less Leave or Remain and more marginal.

There are a lot of Labour-leave marginals in Yorkshire and the Midlands

[parochial boy]

Labour could take Thurrock? seriously?

We are actually seeing swings towards Labour in places that went 65% plus for leave in the referendum. instinctively that doesnt seem good for the Tories

[parochial boy]

Nick clegg lost his seat sheffield hallam

See my sig of Sheffield Steel Workers marching in 1980 against Thatcher's policies....

Not too many steelworkers would have been living in Hallam though...

[parochial boy]

Tooting wow

Big swing as well...

Replicate that swing and even Putney could go, all three Wandsworth constituencies voting Labour would be outrageous.

[parochial boy]

Lab gain Vale of Clwyd

[parochial boy]

The Toroes have basically campaigned on the one issue of stopping a second independence referendum, so have consolidated a strong proportion of the unionist vote.

Labour on 85% in Liverpool Riverside. Wow

[parochial boy]

Just a general question about the system: What's about the British oversees territories and expats? Aren't they allowed to vote or something?

Overseas Brits usually vote in the last constituency they had lived in/or a constituency where they have family; but you lose your vote after 15 yeas abroad. You have to re-register every year though, so a lot of people just end up falling off the register.

[parochial boy]

Some of the swings in the south are... unreal.  Like we've all talked about Canterbury - but there's a bunch of other seats with similar increases.  Hove - Tory from until time began most likely until 1997, they regained it from Labour in 2010 before it went back to Labour in 2015) now has a 20,000 majority with a 15% swing from the Conservatives to Labour.  Brighton Kemptown, Tory since 2010 and before 1997 it was only Labour between 1964 and 1970: 10,000 Labour majority, swing of over 10% to Labour.  Portsmouth South - never Labour, Liberal Democrat from 1997 to 2015, Labour's share of the vote is up 20% and there's a 10% swing to Labour there as well.  Its not even just "metropolitan" areas where this is the case but even the rock-solid safe Labour seats - Labour got 17,000 votes of the Isle of bloody Wight - collectively, they and the Greens were only 10,000 votes behind the Tories (in a place that voted quite heavily to leave the EU).  That's the real interesting part of this election in my eyes...

Might be because I'm studying network data anaysis, but do you think this might be because this region is now very much part of a London political consciousness that is more exposed to London Labour issues such as housing shortages, etc. (I imagine some migrated from London)? Or is increased turnout of previouslly disillusioned voters?

Also, what kind of results did Labour get in Essex.

It kind of depends where you are talking about. Just thinking about some areas I am familiar with, the swings along the Sussex coast (from Brighton to Worthing, even Chichester) are really an extended Brighton effect, and Brighton is knows as "London-on-Sea", has had some pretty major demographic trends in recent years, which are now beginning to knock across the region.

Some of the big swings in South Hampshire/Isle of Wight are a little harder to explain, it is very much a different economic and cultural world to London. Southampton Test and Portsmouth South obviously have the unis, IoW itself has something of a counter-cultural element to it (an, even if he wasn't standing, a rather notorious incumbent). Places like Fareham, are pretty middling suburban sprawl, and quite socially conservative, so it is quiet surprising that they swung Labour at all, at a guess I would say that the terrible transport infrastructure and promises to nationalise the train would have helped.

So I suspect London issues and political culture contributed in lots of the South East, but not all of it, especially in traditional London Commuter areas like Runnymede or Windsor. Less so in Essex and Medway, which both trended heavily Tory.

And to add to that, the swings in the West Country were outrageous too, possibly traditional anti-Tory Lib Dem voters coming into the Labour fold?

[parochial boy]

In 2010, Tories had a 7-point lead over Labour and won 48 more seats. Now with a 2.5 point lead they'll have 56 or 58 more. So it looks like the structural advantage due to FPP has shifted hard to the Tories.

To make it more clear you should take out the Scotland effects. Look at just the English constituency results: in 2010 Tories were up by 11 to Labour and they had a majority of 106. This time Tories are only up by 3.7 in England (!) and likely have a majority of 70.

How much of this is just inefficient realignment of the vote from Lib Dem to Labour however (given the Lib Dems have lost 35 seats?)

I hate to say "global trends" but to a major degree if reflects the fact that Labour, like many a left wing party, is increasingly piling up votes in big cities and struggling in smaller and mid-sized towns. In particular in the Midlands, where many of the old marginals used to be.

[parochial boy]

Here's a map of coal mines in the UK. Anybody want to comment on what it looks remarkably similar too?

[parochial boy]

Which seats did Labour win in 2015 but lose yesterday?

Mansfield
North East Derbyshire
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland
Copeland
Stoke-on-Trent South
Walsall North

In case any one wants to have play around, Britain elects have a spreadsheet with all the results in GB here

[parochial boy]

Labour win Kensington!