UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

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I predicted 319 Tory seats + DUP support creating a minority Tory government. So happy I got the big picture right. I don't know where is this deal UKIP voters going to Lab coming. UKIP's collapse saved Tory as*es & a Lab outright majority. As every poll showed that UKIP votes went majorly to Tories & saved May.

This was a story of Corbyn & the young people. Not just landslide margin, but also huge youth turnout in addition. Most people modeled predictions on a 40-50 or at best 60% turnout of 18-24, but some polls show 72% of 18-24 voted, even higher than the average. Anywhere near that number is flat out gigantic.

And this election showed that Jeremy Corbyn is Labour. His vision is the Labour party of the future & Jeremy Corbyn is the future of UK.Theresa May will form an unstable government with DUP & when UK will again go to poll in 3 or 5 years time, the number of millennials will increase hugely (will come into the voting age) & older Tory voters will die off.

Good luck Tories !

Yesterday, a generation woke and roared at last. It took dispiriting result after dispiriting result but the numbers suggest we’ve finally been galvanised: the turnout among 18- to 24-year-olds is being estimated at 72 per cent.


http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/how-britains-youth-vote-general-election-swung-with-record-numbers-of-young-voters-a3561186.html

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If this was a freaking so-called supposed centrist or a mild conservative instead of Corbyn, can you imagine the hype? The guy with an army of young people & passionate supporters bringing record youth turnout going against the media, elites, his own party to prove he is the new face of his party & deservedly.

Today was Corbyn's momentum. Young people didn't just tweet, they showed up to the polls in gigantic numbers to back Corbyn. The back-benched MP, ridiculed by everyone, dismissed as not being credible, castigated by his own party leaders has not led Labour to a 29 seat gain with more than 11% gain in vote share.

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BTW brilliant job Momentum & kudos to the ex-Bernie Sanders campaign people who flew to the UK in helping train people to organize, canvass & in the introduction of new technology. Momentum did a brilliant job with the videos & in mobilizing via social media !

'Join Labour' searches surge after Jeremy Corbyn electrifies country with shock result

From 8 June to 7pm on 9 June, searches for “join Labour” rose 72 points relative to previous searches for the topic. The biggest jumps came at 10pm, when the exit poll predicted a hung parliament and at 8am when the scale of the Labour advance was obvious. By contrast, the Conservatives saw a modest increase of 31 points relative to previous searches at 7am while the Liberal Democrats remained mostly static.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/join-labour-party-register-member-corbyn-election-result-google-searches-a7782866.html

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Sky -

Most important issue deciding vote

Health 23%
Economy 20%
Immigration 15%
Security & terrorism 14%
Britain's relationship with the EU 14%

Seems Healthcare is the top issue now. Far bigger than Brexit !

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A swing of just 2% from Con to Labour would see the party make 40 gains at next general election. Current total 262. Need 320 for majority.



A swing of just 1% from Lab to Cons at next election would yield 19 gains. Enough for a clear working majority of 16.

This is based on 2017 right? Which website are you using? Please share !

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If I take the newest Survation Poll (Lab - 44.8%, Tory 38.9%) & put the regional break-up of data (Scotland, Wales, etc) instead of whole UK, here are the results -

Scotland -

SNP - 29 (-6)
Lab - 14 (+7)
Tory - 11 (-2)
Lib-Dem - 5 (+1)

Wales  -

Lab - 22 (-6)
Tory - 14 (+6)
Plaid - 4 (0)

England -

Lab - 270 (+43)
Tory - 253 (-43)
Lib-Dem - 8(0)

Net Lab Gain of 44 seats despite a 8% swing taking Lab seats to 308 seats (still not enough for a majority). So, Lab can't form a government on their own even with a 5% lead.

Lab - 56 Seats (out of 72) in Scotland in 1997 !
Lab - 56 Seats (out of 72) in Scotland in 2001 !
Lab - 41 Seats (out of 59) in Scotland in 2005 !

Lab needs 64 more seats vs 2017 (not considering Sinn Fein) . They need to hold their result in Wales, get atleast 40 more seats in England & realistically, Lab needs to win more than half of Scotland's seats, atleast get 30, otherwise it is literally impossible to form a Lab government !

Corbyn should focus on building Lab in Scotland !

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You put wales down twice, I think the 2nd wales should be England?

Yea changed. Point stands. Unless Lab does strongly in Scotland & replaces SNP as the main party, it is impossible for them to for a government on their own. The best case for a Lab PM is a Labour + SNP government !

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Which of the following do you think is the biggest reason more people than expected chose to vote for Jeremy Corbyn?   

Scrapping tuition fees - 35%, The arrogance of the Conservatives - 30%, His performance as leader - 22%


Which of the following do you think is the biggest reason more people than expected chose not to vote for Theresa May?   

The “dementia tax” policy - 27%, Her performance as leader - 24%, Failing to take part in televised debates - 18%

 
Regardless of how you voted in the election, which of the following party leaders do you think had the best campaign?

Jeremy Corbyn - 67%, Theresa May - 16%, Don’t know - 17%
 

Which of the following issues best reflects the reason why you changed your mind? LAB

The performances of the leader - 25%, School funding policy - 16%, Social Care policy - 14%


Which of the following is closest to your view?

There should be a second referendum - 36%, There should not be a second referendum - 55%, Don’t know - 9%


In light of the General Election result, which of the following do you prefer?

A “hard” Brexit - 36%, A “soft” Brexit - 47%, Don’t know - 17%


Do you approve or disapprove of Theresa May’s decision to govern with agreed support from the Democratic Unionist Party?

Approve                      33%, Disapprove                  47%, Don’t know                  20%

http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118541

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Theresa May has started borrowing Jeremy Corbyn's campaign slogans

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-slogans-borrow-using-labour-leader-conservative-prime-minister-a7789366.html

Owen Smith rumoured to be in line for a job in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/owen-smith-rumoured-line-job-10621819

Jeremy Corbyn To Tour 60 Tory Marginals As He Keeps Labour On 'General Election Footing'

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-to-tour-60-tory-marginal-seats-permanent-general-election-footing-plp_uk_59403012e4b09ad4fbe39a2f

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Theresa May is now almost as unpopular as pre-campaign Jeremy Corbyn, finds YouGov poll

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-less-popular-election-2017-campaign-leader-conservative-labour-poll-yougov-a7792006.html

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You third-wayites are amazing. Corbyn just achieved the highest gains for Labour since Clement F**king Attlee and turned around a 17-point deficit (which, let's face it, was at least partly caused by the infighting that YOU triggered because you couldn't accept him as a legitimate leader) into a near-tie, electing more MPs in the process than the party has had since the Blair years, and somehow you still manage to find things to complain about him and insist that he's unelectable even as Labour has taken a lead in the polls.

Look, I get that you don't like Corbyn very much and strongly disagree with his views, and I respect that. I myself am not a fan of his foreign policies (though his domestic policies are excellent). But stop pretending that your issue with him has anything to do with his objective quality as a leader, because that's blatant bullsh*t.

Atlee was fairly uncharismatic & a moderate speaker. At a time when Corbyn's own party leaders didn't believe in him or his policy & the entire media & corporate & political establishment was against him, I don't know how valid are the expectations.

I also don't think a 3rd way person will support such an extreme right wing Tory government. Brexit is a contentious issue & was splitting the Lab party with a big chunk of both Leave & Remain voters potentially leaving - It was a losing stand. The amazing performance of Lab in getting Ex-Lab voters who had gone over to UKIP & anti-establishment Brexit voters as well as the huge remain section in urban areas & among the young voters, has vindicated Corbyn's strategy !

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Is Corbyn the most leftist of Labour leader since WW2? or more?

Yes, probably. However him personally is not the same as his platform, which is only really to the left of the New Labour manifestos (it is certainly nowhere near as left as 1983, which is what Corbyn would prefer to enact).

Michael Foot will probably be more left wing than Corbyn. Many of the pre-Margaret Thatcher leaders were broadly similar to Corbyn. Corbyn's manifesto apart from nationalization is a pretty tame left wing version & doesn't really represent his left wing economic policies adequately !

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Is Corbyn the most leftist of Labour leader since WW2? or more?

Yes, probably. However him personally is not the same as his platform, which is only really to the left of the New Labour manifestos (it is certainly nowhere near as left as 1983, which is what Corbyn would prefer to enact).

Michael Foot will probably be more left wing than Corbyn. Many of the pre-Margaret Thatcher leaders were broadly similar to Corbyn. Corbyn's manifesto apart from nationalization is a pretty tame left wing version & doesn't really represent his left wing economic policies adequately !

I don't think Foot was to the left of Corbyn. Corbyn is a staunch Bennite, and Foot while more favourable to that direction, was seen as a unifying figure between the two wings (although undoubtedly on the left).

But we're in agreement that Corbynism is significantly watered-down of his actual views, and really just a social democratic stepping-stone for wider support.

Harold Wilson maybe, but Foot? He was from the hardcore left wing faction of Labour & he was so left that the party split & Social Democrats sort of gained traction out of it ! Foot was very divisive in the party & was totally disliked by the moderate section, perhaps even more than Corbyn !

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Seat Projection -

CON       283 (-35)
LAB        308 (+46)
Lib-Dem  10 (-2)
SNP        27 (-8)
Greens     1  (0)
PlaidC      3  (-1)

Still not enough for a majority. Lab can go to 44/45% & get a 3-4-5% lead & still fall short of a majority until they do better in Scotland.

SNP has to crash & Lab has to win 20 more seats in Scotland atleast compared to this !

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If people think DUP is better than SNP then they have mental issues & need to get their head examined instead of typing in. A semi-Christian Taliban with actual links to extremists, who are anti-science, creationists, anti-abortion, notoriously anti-gay & I could go on.

SNP believes in an indepenent Scotland via a democrastic process but have progressive policies vs a more gentle & subdued Christian Taliban - Really???

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1. Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?

Strongly support 33%, Tend to support 26% (59%)
Tend to oppose 15%, Strongly oppose 13% (28%)
Don't know 13%


https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/c9858cf0-527a-11e7-86f0-4e52bfafa255/question/f7a01240-527a-11e7-bfce-be36d6dc7ab1/toplines


Jeremy Corbyn has overtaken Theresa May for the first time in a poll asking who would make the best prime minister. The YouGov survey for The Times found that 35 per cent of respondents thought the Labour leader would make the country's best leader. Ms May was a point behind on 34 per cent, while 30 per cent said they were unsure.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-theresa-may-poll-best-prime-minister-pm-latest-labour-conservatives-a7803911.html

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Labour five points ahead and Jeremy Corbyn much more popular than Theresa May in new poll

Labour is five points ahead of the Tories at 46 per cent, found the Sunday Times. The survey, which took a random sample of 5,000 people, also found that Ms May’s approval rating is at minus 17, a mirror opposite to Mr Corbyn’s plus 17.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-more-popular-opinion-polls-theresa-may-brexit-sunday-times-philip-a7807421.html