UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[MaxQue]

Kensington is having a third recount later today; count suspended for now

They think about doing the recount tomorrow.

[MaxQue]

As a wise man once said: aaaaaaayyyy lmao

But basically: in most of the country a standard sh!t election (but even that is way better than what was expected! The number of Labour candidates who hadn't bothered to write victory speeches and who won...) with a deffo Brexit backlash in London... and... unprecedented involvement of the young in the political process. The results in studenty areas are *extraordinary*. It is a good thing that attention will have to be paid to young people.

Sir Julian Brasier probaly discovered there was an university in Canterbury.

[MaxQue]

Kensington is having a third recount later today; count suspended for now

They think about doing the recount tomorrow.

It's ridicoulous really. All three counts have had Labour in the lead and now the Tories want a third recount. I can understand it's a hard thing to swallow, but they'll have to accept it eventually.

Well, they were granted the recount, can't cancel now and the room is booked all day.

[MaxQue]

While DUP says they want a softer Brexit, not only Farage is coming back, but it's widely believed May will be challenged if Brexit is watered down. Her position is untenable.

Well, one of the main reasons she wanted a wider majority was to be able to pass a Hard Brexit, despite some opposition in her party. There was not the votes to pass it and, obviously, still not. Hard Brexit is dead.

DUP won't yield on that anyways, the whole Northern Irish economy depends on open borders with Ireland.

[MaxQue]

Survation apparently has a poll out, where Labour leads 45-39.

Should kill any early election speculation and possibly finish off May.

[MaxQue]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions - did these regions consist of the same constituencies that make up the EU regions?

Yes (with the exception of Gibraltar, which is in SW region for European election and is not represented in Westminster).

[MaxQue]

News reports there is no deal with DUP yet, apparently Downing Street sent the wrong press release.

[MaxQue]

Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Ugh, of f**king course it would help the Tories.

What are the odds that this abomination ever comes to pass now that the Tories don't have a majority on their own?

Almost none, as the only other party gaining from it is SF. DUP is a big loser from it.

[MaxQue]

Honestly, 10% is a really high deviation, and I could see it increasing the chance of an undemocratic outcome quite a bit. I'd say 5% is the maximum that can be tolerated (when I draw districts myself I usually try to stay within 1%). But yeah, most important is keeping the solid levels of representativeness that 650 seats allow, or at least not going backwards.

5% is really hard in UK. They use wards as building blocks, which building 75k constituencies from block ranging from 1000 (rural districts) to 15000 (large cities). Try to make it at 1% deviation with 10000 inhabitants bulding blocks.

[MaxQue]

Least deprived Labour constituencies in England, including all in the bottom four deciles:
1. Sheffield Hallam
2. Stroud
3. Warwick & Leamington
4. Sefton Central
5. Cambridge
6. Reading East
7. Harrow West
8. Wirral South
9. Leeds North West
10. Warrington South
11. Canterbury
12. Wirral West
13. Penistone & Stocksbridge
14. High Peak
15. Gedling
16. Enfield Southgate
17. York Central
18. Tynemouth
19. City of Durham

Interesting that those are virtually all University, Northern or diverse parts of London consituencies.

Of the two that aren't, Stroud has always had a bit of a hippy/arty reputation, but what explains Gedling?

No clue, it's a wierd seat going by its results.
Labour majorities since 1997:
1997: 3802
2001: 5598
2005: 3811
2010: 1859
2015: 2986
2017: 4694

Seems extremely inelastic.

[MaxQue]

And, yes, before anyone asks: George was Angela's uncle.

Grandfather, no?

[MaxQue]

Christian Taliban? Lol

Well, very religious, to the point they refuse to do anything on Sundays.