UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[adma]

Canterbury's probably the prime case where a Labour steal was enabled by the disintegration of the LD vote--back in 1997, the opposition was split...

[adma]

Anyone note that this is the second consecutive election where a former Lib Dem leader was defeated?

[adma]

What happened: Theresa May = Gorgeous Gorillawitz in pearls (this *so* captures the May vs Corbyn dynamic)
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4i66k8

[adma]

Yes, very different. Hastings these days is what might politely be described as a bit of a dive. Pretty clear that the hinterland (which is more your average prosperous Sussex countryside) pulled her over the line, just.

Also, there's a recent past of being represented by New Labour--and by 1997-landslide statistical fluke.  Up to 1992 H&R was deemed typical S England Tory vs Lib territory--in 1992, 47.6% vs 35.2%, with Labour well back at 25.7%.  Then in 1997, Labour pole-vaulted to 34.4%, while the Tories sunk to 29.2% and LD to 28.0%  And with incumbent advantage, H&R morphed from a Con-Lib seat to a Con-Lab seat, which it remains...

[adma]

No. The UK does not report any results whatsoever at a more granular level than constituencies.

Or at most, ward-level data serves as a proxy.

Incidentally, re the Survation poll and projecting seat totals from that, I'd take Wales losing 6 Labour seats to the Tories with a grain of salt.

[adma]

No. The UK does not report any results whatsoever at a more granular level than constituencies.

Or at most, ward-level data serves as a proxy.

Incidentally, re the Survation poll and projecting seat totals from that, I'd take Wales losing 6 Labour seats to the Tories with a grain of salt.

Ward level data?

What exactly is this and where is it available?

Basically, using local ward-level election results to interpret where the parties' relative strengths lie.  A bit crude, but seems to be the best one can do...

[adma]

This may explain Kensington's result a bit
https://www.citylab.com/politics/2017/06/londons-richest-neighborhood-just-voted-labour-thats-astounding/529788/?utm_source=SFFB

And re the Republicans: you really have to go back to an earlier age of moderate Republicanism to comprehend the Tories' continuing viability in London, or consider its ghost in recent NYC Mayoral elections (Giuliani, Bloomberg--echoed, of course, by Boris in London).  In fact, given what the GOP is today, a more fitting comparison point than London is Paris: think not of how Sarkozy/Fillon have done there, but of how Le Pen has done there.  *That's* why the GOP fares so poorly in US urban cores.

[adma]

Any leadership poll not considering powerhouse Jacob Rees-Mogg is illegitimate.

No kidding

[adma]

It may be morbid to suggest this, but I can picture someone offering the politically charged observation that those who elected Labour in Kensington all died in the Grenfell fire...

[adma]

But we're in agreement that Corbynism is significantly watered-down of his actual views, and really just a social democratic stepping-stone for wider support.

The inverse, I guess, of Harperism in Canada (at least until the run-up to the 2015 election)

[adma]

I'd almost have expected a bigger swing in light of Grenfell--then again, in a circumstance where the top 2 parties have 80%+ combined, there's a certain max-out point to be reached, at least for Labour...

[adma]

The 2015 Tory campaign received heavy criticism...until the results came in, at which point it became highly praised. 

Did you mean *Tory*, or *Labour*?  Because it sounds like you meant "Labour".  (Or course, the argument could go either way, except that I don't recall any significant high praise for the Tory outcome.   Unless you're speaking of Ruth Davidson rather than Theresa May, of course.)

[adma]

He said 2015, not 2017.

Thanks.