Next UK General Election thread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well I suppose we need a new one.

Theresa May failed to secure a majority in the June 2017 snap election, I made the title of the thread "Next UK General Election" because we do not know when the next election will be. The next one is due in 2022 but a lot of people believe it will be before then.

[Silent Hunter]

It will require either a 2/3 majority in the Commons or a no confidence vote. That might be a while.

[Paleobrazilian]

It will require either a 2/3 majority in the Commons or a no confidence vote. That might be a while.

Well I'm sure Corbyn will be up for it. If May remains she may try to hold on but it'll be tough. If she goes than a new GE is pretty much certain.

[jaichind]

The status quo does not look sustainable and will most likely fall apart soon.  Main issue is a battle between CON and LAB to try to pin the fault for a new election on the other.  Main lesson of June 2017 election it seems is the side that provoked an early election tends to lose relative to expectations.   

[libertpaulian]

Isn't May (assuming she remains PM) only set out to continue what was supposed to be Cameron's term? 

Thus, wouldn't the next election be in 2020, barring any early elections?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

if there was to be an early election it will be in October

This is so 1974, isn't it?

[cp]

Isn't May (assuming she remains PM) only set out to continue what was supposed to be Cameron's term? 

Thus, wouldn't the next election be in 2020, barring any early elections?

No. When an election is called the preceding 'term' ends and the proverbial clock is reset to 5 years.

[jimrtex]

Does the review of the parliamentary constituencies still have to be approved by Parliament, and if so, will the results of this election prevent that from happening?

[Donerail]

Does the review of the parliamentary constituencies still have to be approved by Parliament, and if so, will the results of this election prevent that from happening?

Some suggestions that the DUP will block the boundary review—proposals in Northern Ireland seem to hurt the DUP and help Sinn Féin.

[kyc0705]

Lighting a candle for Brenda from Bristol.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm pretty sure we're going to have a new election by the fall of this year. A two seat majority only with a regional party won't last a year, let alone five years.

[Person Man]

Come on guys, is the UK becoming the next Italy?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Could we have a snap election in 2019 after Brexit negotiations are complete?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

May's refusal to step down practically ensures a Corbyn ministry by this time next year. My God.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Could we have a snap election in 2019 after Brexit negotiations are complete?

We're gonna have a snap election well before negotiations are complete.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Lighting a candle for Brenda from Bristol.

Frankly, whoever runs *against * the election during the inevitable election is going to have a powerful issue behind them. The people of the UK are tired, and tbh I can't blame them.

[Lachi]

Lol, thanks to may, Corbyn is almost guaranteed to win the next election, especially if someone like Boris gets in. If Davidson becomes the next leader, well, that's a whole 'nother story entirely.

[afleitch]

Seems the Tories now want to seek a formal coalition with the DUP. But the DUP won't negotiate on Sundays.

[DC Al Fine]

Seems the Tories now want to seek a formal coalition with the DUP. But the DUP won't negotiate on Sundays.

Heh. Glad somebody is keeping the Sabbath.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Seems the Tories now want to seek a formal coalition with the DUP. But the DUP won't negotiate on Sundays.

Hahaha of course

[DavidB.]

Seems the Tories now want to seek a formal coalition with the DUP. But the DUP won't negotiate on Sundays.

Welcome to our world.

[Dan the Roman]

People here are delusional thinking

1. Corbyn would be in within a year - He can never be "in" during this Parliament. His support for the IRA means the DUP can never, under any circumstances, support him. His relative "success" in rUK in fact makes him even more an object of absolute loathing given that he appears to be "normalizing" the IRA. Tories and the DUP have an effective majority of closer to 5 with SF not taking their seats. No Tory will possibly ever play a role in Corbyn coming in.

2. People are vastly overestimating what happened. People are acting as if the voters might actually prefer Corbyn to May as PM. There is zero evidence from Thursday that they did. In fact, I suspect a lot of the Tory losses in places like Kensington occurred precisely because it looked impossible that Corbyn ever could be PM. A second election might lead to Labour advances elsewhere in leave areas, though talk of a "Progressive Alliance" with the LDs and SNP is going to make that harder, but next time around things will be for keeps. It will be whether you want Corbyn as PM and I think it is far more likely Labour falls back in London and the South than that they make further gains. That is especially true if those voters think they have already sent a message to the Conservatives regarding Brexit or there is an interim deal.

Labour made advances in the richest and poorest parts of the country simultaneously because the election was entirely about the Tories. Whether Corbyn can survive greater scrutiny is an open question. Already the behavior and tone of his supporters, especially regarding May, seems to be reawakening all the doubts moderates had about them. He has yet to lead May in a single poll.

I would place more on May leading the Tories to a majority in the future than on Corbyn winning one.

3. There is no viable alternative to May. Boris Johnson is not a viable leader except in the eyes of people who are not Conservative MPs. He reminds people of Trump which might have been useful 18 months ago or even a year back, but as recent developments in Europe have shown, is a massive liability. He was a joke as Foriegn Secretary and the idea he can strike a deal with Brussels is laughable. He has little support among Mps, one reason he dropped out last year is that his natural base was 40 or so MPs, the rest were borrowed from Gove. He had a disaster of a campaign then, and his short tenure in the cabinet since and none previously means he has no patronage base.

Yet for all those faults if he could get to the membership ballot he could still win. That cannot be allowed by the big beasts and the only way the Tory rules allow that to be prevented is to have no contest. That means May has to stay unless there is total consensus on a leader, and as there is no way to have consensus in favor of Boris Johnson, that means May leaving is entirely dependent on Johnson either voluntarily stepping aside or being run over in the street.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I make no predictions here, but on a day-to-day level the parliamentary arithmetic isn't quite as catastrophic as is being implied as the SNP are not the most regular attendees and don't vote on English domestic issues. Governments have survived for a long time with worse positions (even if they weren't generally elected with them). Unless the government falls then an early election would only happen if the polls made it look enticing and what has just happened might not make that quite so tempting.

Like, rule nothing out but an unpopular government with a shaky hold on the Commons that lasts for quite a while is on balance the most likely outcome.

[The Free North]

Random question but does anyone have a map of the 1931 election by chance?

[Gary J]

Does the review of the parliamentary constituencies still have to be approved by Parliament, and if so, will the results of this election prevent that from happening?

The Boundary Commissions are due to put forward proposals in September 2018. Before the new boundaries can be put into law, Parliament will have to approve them. If the changes are rejected, then the existing boundaries will continue in force.

Given that only the Conservative Party is reasonably happy with a 600 seat House of Commons, it must be quite possible but not certain that the results of the boundary review will be rejected.