Next UK General Election thread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Tim Farron is stepping down, means Lib Dems will have a new leader for whenever the next election is.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

(via @Survation)

[thumb21]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

[IceAgeComing]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

This is a phone poll so you can't compare it directly with the previous internet survation poll

[Leftbehind]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (-1)

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

This is a phone poll so you can't compare it directly with the previous internet survation poll

Changes from last telephone poll added.

[thumb21]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

This is a phone poll so you can't compare it directly with the previous internet survation poll

Ok.

[The_Doctor]

A random question.

What would the UK people recommend for an American who's become intrigued by the British electoral ongoings to familiarize himself enough to not be a complete idiot in commenting by regurgitating the hot takes of Twitter?

I've been scrolling through past British elections on Wikipedia, and suchlike, but clearly, British political traditions and customs are very unlike the United States so I can't really comment with knowledge here.

Not to derail the thread or anything. Sorry about that.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

On Theresa May resigning as Prime Minister following the General Election result:

Support: 45%
Oppose: 48%

(via Survation, 16 - 17 Jun)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

On Theresa May resigning as Prime Minister following the General Election result:

Support: 45%
Oppose: 48%

(via Survation, 16 - 17 Jun)

[Leftbehind]

On Theresa May resigning as Prime Minister following the General Election result:

Support: 45%
Oppose: 48%

(via Survation, 16 - 17 Jun)

I'll take a narrow right-wing plurality over what we've been looking at for the past 3+ years.

[cp]

A random question.

What would the UK people recommend for an American who's become intrigued by the British electoral ongoings to familiarize himself enough to not be a complete idiot in commenting by regurgitating the hot takes of Twitter?

I've been scrolling through past British elections on Wikipedia, and suchlike, but clearly, British political traditions and customs are very unlike the United States so I can't really comment with knowledge here.

Not to derail the thread or anything. Sorry about that.

Great question! I think you're already doing the right thing. Expand your wikipedia readings to include articles on British history, institutions, and major figures and you'll start to get a better idea over time. Don't get too frustrated by how much there is to learn, though. Some people spend their whole lives trying to understand British politics and still don't know it all!

If you have specific questions then feel free to DM to ask me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On Theresa May resigning as Prime Minister following the General Election result:

Support: 45%
Oppose: 48%

(via Survation, 16 - 17 Jun)

I'll take a narrow right-wing plurality over what we've been looking at for the past 3+ years.

Looks like the time is ripe.

[Phony Moderate]

Who Would Make The Better Prime Minister? (YouGov):

Corbyn - 35% (+3)
May - 34% (-9)

Changes compared to June 7th (i.e. the eve of the election).

[_]

PM Corbyn when?

[TheSaint250]

PM Corbyn when?

Ew

[Gary J]

PM Corbyn when?

There is an outside chance of Friday 30 June.

The House of Commons is currently debating a motion to approve the Queen's speech, which sets out the government's legislative programme for the next two years. The vote is due on Thursday 29 June. If it does not pass then it is likely that the Prime Minister will then resign and arguably it would be unconstitutional not to do so.

There may be some doubt about what will happen because the interaction between the traditional constitutional conventions and the provisions of the fixed term parliaments law, have never been tested.

It is likely that a slim Conservative/DUP majority will prevail, so the interesting constitutional issues will not arise, but the numbers involved do not give the Prime Minister much margin of error.

[IceAgeComing]

if by outside chance you mean "theoretically this could happen, but it won't" then yeah sure, that's all true.  There aren't the numbers in the Commons for a Labour government right now, so there'd have to be another election for that realistically to happen.

realistically; I can't see an election before 2019 unless the Tories lose a fair few by-elections to the point where they can't get the votes to survive a confidence motion; and although the numbers are probably very tight generally we get a lot less by-elections now than we used to get; they might be able to convince a few more MPs outside the Tories and the DUP to abstain for some concessions which would increase their margin; and I don't know whether an early election mid-Brexit negotiations is something that Labour would... entirely want unless things were looking incredibly good, especially after what happened this year to the Tories - remember, people don't like voting if they feel that an election in unnecessary and they'll likely punish the people that they find responsible.

[Gary J]

The outside chance disappeared after my previous post, as the Conservatives and DUP finalised the deal to give Theresa May an overall majority in Parliament.

If Mrs May had had to resign after losing the vote on the Queen's speech then the Leader of the Opposition would be asked if he could form a ministry with the confidence of the House. If the answer was no then presumably Mrs May would continue in office, in a caretaker capacity, while the House of Commons got to vote on an early election motion.

If Jeremy Corbyn's answer was yes then he would get a chance to form a government and dare the other parties to vote it down. Given that there is a convention that there should be at least a few months gap between general elections, there would have been a chance that the Conservatives would abstain on confidence votes whilst they changed their leader. However none of this will happen now.

[thumb21]

SURVATION (TELEPHONE)
(Compared to 17/6/2017)

CON 41 (0)
LAB 40 (-4)
LIB 7 (+1)
SNP 2 (-1)
UKIP 2 (0)
GRN 2 (+1)

OPINIUM
(Compared to election result)

LAB 45 (+4)
CON 39 (-4)
LIB 5 (-3)
UKIP 5 (+3)
SNP 3 (0)
GRN 2 (0)

On prefered prime minister:
OPINIUM
(Compared to 6/6/2017)

May 35 (-7)
Corbyn 34 (+5)

[Leftbehind]

New ICM poll:

VI:
Lab 43% (+5)
Con 41% (-2)
Lib 7% (-1)
UKIP 3% (-1)
Grn 3% (+1)

Leadership:
+9 Corbyn (44% Good, 35% Bad)
-26 May (28% Good, 54% Bad)

Trust managing the economy:
39% May & Hammond
32% Corbyn & McDonnell

[DL]

I would be very curious to see a poll of Scotland on Westminster vote intention. I wouldnt be surprised to see a major crash in support for the SNP since the election and a return to Labour

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would be very curious to see a poll of Scotland on Westminster vote intention. I wouldnt be surprised to see a major crash in support for the SNP since the election and a return to Labour

One can only hope...

[Leftbehind]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

[DKrol]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

When polls list it only as Nats, does that just mean SNP & Plaid Cymru? It doesn't include Sinn Fein et al., right?

[MaxQue]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

When polls list it only as Nats, does that just mean SNP & Plaid Cymru? It doesn't include Sinn Fein et al., right?

All posters (but one) do not poll Northern Ireland (and the one who does includes SF in others).