Next UK General Election thread

[IceAgeComing]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 6%
UKIP: 2%

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

This is a phone poll so you can't compare it directly with the previous internet survation poll

[IceAgeComing]

if by outside chance you mean "theoretically this could happen, but it won't" then yeah sure, that's all true.  There aren't the numbers in the Commons for a Labour government right now, so there'd have to be another election for that realistically to happen.

realistically; I can't see an election before 2019 unless the Tories lose a fair few by-elections to the point where they can't get the votes to survive a confidence motion; and although the numbers are probably very tight generally we get a lot less by-elections now than we used to get; they might be able to convince a few more MPs outside the Tories and the DUP to abstain for some concessions which would increase their margin; and I don't know whether an early election mid-Brexit negotiations is something that Labour would... entirely want unless things were looking incredibly good, especially after what happened this year to the Tories - remember, people don't like voting if they feel that an election in unnecessary and they'll likely punish the people that they find responsible.

[IceAgeComing]

Yougov are the only major polling firm that stick SNP and Plaid together; the others have the two separate (and generally include the latter with the others)

The (worthless) internals on the poll have Labour ahead in Scotland ftr.

yougov internals are worse than useless, don't bother looking at them - especially the regional ones since they are tiny and unrepresentative - one of the other post-election polls that had Labour ahead nationally had the Tories at over 40% in Scotland which, eh, isn't the case.

[IceAgeComing]

yougov internals are worse than useless, don't bother looking at them

[IceAgeComing]

I can't see any path that Rees-Mogg would manage to get through the first rounds of the leadership election where only MPs vote, so it's not really worth thinking about.