Next UK General Election thread

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Sample Size 1648, Scotland 167, so pretty decent for Scotland

Lab - 329 (Majority) in Swingometer

Which is totally faulty given it shows Lab gaining 10 seats over SNP in Scotland with SNP at 27 overall with only 8 seat losses.

Scotland Cross-tab is more interesting though -

Lab - 36%
SNP - 31%
Tory - 25%
Lib-Dem - 5%

Which gives the following seats in Swingometer -

Lab - 36 (+29)
Tory - 14 (+1)
SNP - 4 (-31)
Lib-Dem - 5(+1)

Lab is getting much more than 10 seats with this performance in Scotland but at 31% SNP will not go down to 4 seats (that is kinda absurd).

But Labour's seat to vote thing is getting better, more uniform, translating to seats properly. Surely Lab will pick up 20-25 odd seats if they get 35-40% of the vote in Scotland. I also expect bandwagon effect, whoever is stronger between SNP & Labour will get the lion's share of left wing voters. Voters will chose 1 party in most seats & double down on that to stop the Tories.

Yougov's seat prediction model (whether by fluke or not) was surprisingly good. I think if it was done here it would give Lab over 340 seats.

Anyways look at the age based polarization -

18-24 - 15/73
25-49 - 30/56
50-64 - 38/41
65+  - 66/19

Tories are done when they lose even the 50-64 old voter demographic. It is just that the 65+ dinosaurs live in a different world pro- Margaret Thatcher type world which has gone away.

As more older people die & young people come in, this will be a bloodbath & a demographic disaster for the Tories !

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Electoral calculus tells me the SNP would win just 3 seats with that result. It's insane how spread out their vote must be.

Indeed. According to their map, they would only win Dundee East, Ross Skye and Lochaber and Inverness.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

322 Labour (+60)
288 Tories (-30)
  15 LibDem (+3)
    3 SNP (-32)
    3 PC (-1)
    1 Green
  18 N. Ireland

322 is the majority because Sinn Fein won't take their seats. The momentum will be with Lab & if they are the leader in Scotland & in many other marginal seats, the momentum will swing towards them. Lib-Dem in this poll is winning a few more seats in Scotland.

If this is the true case, Lab wins more seats in Scotland & gets a majority. Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

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Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

Why 2 years, do you say?

Maybe thinking of the Brexit negotiations.

Yea nothing will come up till Brexit stuff is done. The deal will be crappy & then DUP throws a fit & we see fresh elections.