Next UK General Election thread

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's not just their left flank (which was never that large, especially before 2005) it is that they have alienated successfully large elements of their core vote, who now have decided they might as well vote for one of the major parties - this benefits the Tories in practice. And the sort of campaign they ran for June was absolutely not the best way to win that vote back.

In practice, they are fast becoming a party for the more liberally minded higher professionals with the occasional traditional bastion added in. There is enough of the former to maintain a viable parliamentary party - Bath, SE London, East Dunbartonshire, also St Albans which, while they didn't win, is a very viable taget now - but not much beyond 'viable'. And as for the traditional bastions, other than Orkney and Shetland and the Scottish Highlands, it is uncertain how long they will last without their current MPs. I'm pretty sure Norfolk North and Westmoreland will return to the Conservative column once Lamb and Farron retire, and in many seats where they got respectable vote shares but didn't win they ran a former MP (Compare, say, St Ives and North Cornwall to everywhere else in Cornwall). Perhaps their full collapse has been averted yet...

Also I'll add as a final note, in the English Midlands they failed to finish first or second in any seat. Now this was never a good area for them but in the North of England they won only their leaders' seat (just) and finished second in merely six others, some of which they were still utterly miles behind. In Wales they lost 36 out of 40 deposits.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually the link between deprivation and voting Labour is very clear as this chart below (which covers only England) demonstrates

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually the link between deprivation and voting Labour is very clear as this chart below (which covers only England) demonstrates

Which is the one Tory in the most deprived and the one Labour in least deprived.  I am guessing university towns would be low in terms of deprivation yet still voted Labour while areas with high senior's population would probably be higher on deprivation but vote Tory.

Ummm... it says it underneath the graphic: Walsall North and Sheffield Hallam. Note though that both of those were gains in the previous election.

Actually, note this: According to this data - which is Parliament's own - the least deprived seat is North East Hampshire and the most deprived Liverpool Walton. In other words, the safest Tory and safest Labour seat in the whole UK.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

3.  Why is the London Commuter belt so conservative.  Is it more exurb thus semi rural as opposed to suburban as usually in North America suburbs tend to be bellwethers not heavily conservative.  Now true here in Canada in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa, the areas just beyond the urban/rural fringe tend to be some of the strongest Tory ridings think York-Simcoe, Carleton, or Langley-Aldergrove so far anyone familiar with Canada is the London commuter belt more akin to those ridings than a typical suburban one like say Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, or Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows which are only lean conservative not solid (they lost those in 2015).

As someone who lives in London I'll have a shot at answering this.

My seat is the typical inner London Labour seat (2,000 majority) and has a high combination of Afro-Carribean residents, local authority housing and public sector workers. But the neighboring constituency is Beckenham; one of the safest tory seats. How come?

Mainly because people in Beckenham are much richer; and more concerned about Inheritance tax, crime etc. Just driving around you can tell the area is different; everyone has a driveway, mostly detached houses, lots of retired people.

These seats generally stayed blue; older residents, combined with ex-ukip voters were happy to vote for Theresa May.

The problem seats are Croydon Central, Putney etc where people are generally more affluent, but are still see themselves as culturally liberal; more accepting of immigration, would have gay friends, but still think that taxes should be low, that benefits are too generous. Combined with wealthy Hindus, and other ethnic minorities. Basically people who would happily vote for David Cameron, but not 'Citizens of Nowhere' Theresa May.

So that's why the commuter belt should be divided up into two; basically I'd wager the higher the remain vote the more likely to fall in the second category they are.

There are plenty of Remain voting places in the SE where the Tories are still miles ahead of any opposition; I give you North East Hampshire, Mole Valley, Woking, Wokingham, and Esher and Walton to name just a few.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

One of my first reactions to that map was "In the long run, it doesn't look great for Mark Field, does it?"

On Mortgaged v Owned Outright - how much of the latter is inherited?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

On Mortgaged v Owned Outright - how much of the latter is inherited?

Depends where in London; in the suburban areas - and areas developed as suburban to an extent still - a lot of the time they're houses on which the mortgage has been paid off, but as you get further in... "guess".

That would imply that the Owned Outright map can also act as an age map in Outer London, at least to some extent.

Which for our psephological purposes should not surprise us totally - look at Bromley and Havering, but then again, Enfield stands out.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

some of the patterns will be down to Right to Buy, there's a fair few wards there with relatively high council housing and mortgaged (I live in a similar area but in Reading) the council tenants who bought their houses in the 80s and 90s are either still mortgaged or have sold up to move on to greener pastures, often for a nice profit.

in Enfield you can see the pattern of the parliamentary seats, Southgate safe Con, Edmonton safe Lab and Enfield North marginal and there are a few other boroughs similar

Not any more!