The Presidency of Newt Gingrich

[Progressive]

Iowa Eve

January 23, 2000

The 2000 Republican primaries had gone nothing like planned thus far. Gov. George Bush of Texas was the consummate frontrunner, pushing back a surging, moderate Sen. John McCain of Arizona. But late in August 2000, the former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich of Georgia, once the butt of political jokes, held a rally in Georgia with thousands of supporters and current/former members of Congress who wanted a conservative GOP nominee but feared the intellectual haplessness of Gov. Bush. Speaker Gingrich announced his long-speculated bid for the presidency, and promised to double-down on America's role in defining the "moral majority," as he called.

Gingrich outlined his most important issues: ending the "out of control welfare state," scaling back "over intrusive, failed Clinton foreign policy," denying money to public schools that continue to fail students, and making America business friendly again.

Businessman Steve Forbes, who launched a presidential bid of his own, dropped out that fall and backed Gingrich as both a political supporter and financial backer. Gingrich's campaign style was different than that of Bush and McCain. He was brash, sharp-tongued, whip-smart, and convinced supporters thus far that only he could shake up the system that "the Bushes and the Clintons" had benefited from.

Polls showed Gingrich surging in Iowa and Alaska (0 delegates), which held caucuses on January 24, 2000, the next day. Gingrich actually visited Alaska twice, in the hopes that a win there could counter-balance any bad news in Iowa. Few GOP pundits believed Gingrich could win the nomination, though many fretted that he would damage the inevitable nominee, George Bush.

Gingrich was ready to fight. He and his wife Callista held rallied all day, and were not afraid to criticize Republicans too. But could Gingrich become president. Would he be the famed number 43?

Stay tuned, the story is about to get interesting.

[Progressive]

IOWA CAUCUSES

January 24, 2000

IOWA RESULTS
George W. Bush          46%  WINNER
Newt Gingrich             43%
Alan Keyes                  5%
John McCain                4%
Gary Bauer                  2%
Orrin Hatch                 <1%

Despite the barrage of negative ads and being outspent nearly 15 to 1 in Iowa, Speaker Gingrich scored what many in the press deemed an "upset runner up" position, coming within 3 points of Gov. Bush. In what Gingrich called the "first bullet of the new American Revolution," he urged his supporters to look toward New Hampshire for the "first conquer," and chided Gov. Bush's campaign for running "sleazy, negative ads."

"The American people are tired of the Oval Office serving as an owner's box for rich, elite families. The Clintons. The Bushes. Enough is enough. It's time for a moral majority in this country again. It's time to end the entitlement empire. It's time to end the failed Clinton Bush foreign policy."

Gingrich won the Alaska Caucuses that night, which served mainly as a beauty contest as there were no delegates to award. Still, Gingrich won the Alaska Caucuses with 56% of the vote, to Bush's 31%, stoking fear in many Bush campaign advisers that Gingrich enthusiasm would be hard to topple going forward.

In the days following Iowa, Gingrich's campaign focused with laser precision on winning New Hampshire. Gingrich gambled that New Hampshire Republicans were especially concerned with reviving America's business-friendly environment. Gingrich scored support of real estate tycoon Donald Trump. Gingrich announced that if he were elected president, he would inject billions of dollars in sorely needed infrastructure across the country, especially in New Hampshire.

Up Next: New Hampshire upends the 2000 GOP Primary

[Progressive]

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

February 1, 2000

Just after the Bush team's near miss in Iowa, top aides to the Texas noted frantically that the Grantie State has gone gaga for Gingrich. Gingrich lawn signs were seemingly everywhere, and Gingrich even scored major newspaper endorsements and the backing of Gov. Judd Gregg, much to the heartbreak of the Bush campaign.

Sen. John McCain was also a wildcard in the race. As one of the three final GOP contenders for the nomination, McCain took a slice of the prevalent anti-Bush vote. But data also suggested that McCain was reaching voters who would choose Bush over Gingrich, including veterans and those who identify as lifelong Republicans.

Gingrich and Bush campaign aides got into a "war of words" over data just before the New Hampshire debate. Bush aide Karl Rove insisted that the Gingrich campaign was "by design, meant to fail" because it relied too heavily on Internet and computer-based outreach to draw voters to the primaries, including tepid Republicans and conservative independents. Rove insisted that the Bush campaign launch negative ads about Gingrich's prior marriages.

NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS
Newt Gingrich        51% WINNER
George W. Bush     26%
John McCain          22%
Dropped out           1%

"I guess it turns out Republicans don't care for dynasties do they?" bellowed Gingrich to supporters who roared back in agreement. "We're sick of it, as a party, of the Bills and the Hillarys, the George's and the Laura's, the Al's and the Tipper's. Conservatives across this great state sent a message to the elite ruling class in Washington that we won't take it anymore!"

The results were devastating for the Bush team. Karl Rove's reliance on traditional voter data was not entirely wrong. George W. Bush indeed tied with Gingrich among Republicans, but independents came out 70% for Gingrich with much of the remainder going for McCain.

BREAKING: McCain drops out of the race, refuses to endorse Bush or Gingrich, does not rule out independent bid or support for Democratic ticket.

NEXT UP: Wounded Bush tries to make a comeback in Delaware and South Carolina.

NOTE: If you want more information, i.e. where the candidates did well, exit data, polling, etc. let me know.

[Progressive]

DELAWARE AND SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY TIME

February 8-19, 2000

The day after a devastating loss in New Hampshire, Bush campaign aides decided to focus the campaign's energy on a full-throttle brawl in South Carolina. The Palmetto State was known for delivering surprises, and Bush aides figured that Delaware would otherwise be an unimportant step on the road to the nomination.

On February 3, 2000, a top deputy to RNC Chair Jim Nicholson phoned Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL). "Look, Jeb, your brother has to compete in Delaware. Ted [Castle] is furious that [Karl] Rove and Joe Allbaugh don't have him scheduled in there at all. He also thinks he's vulnerable in November if Newt is the nominee. Thinks Delaware won't bite. You need to play the delegate game if you want to beat Gingrich. Everyone is talking Newt. Gore's internals supposedly have him up big against Gingrich maybe 14, 16 points, and only up a few points against George. Please. Get him to Delaware."

The next day, George and Laura Bush did a 48 hour campaign blitz in Delaware, with Rep. Ted Castle who endorsed Bush. Castle insisted that "Delaware will be the state that launches President George W. Bush!"

DELAWARE RESULTS
Newt Gingrich       57% WINNER
George W. Bush    39%
Drop outs             4%

Another rout for Gingrich. The Bush campaign was piping mad, and Rep. Tad Castle was embarrassed.

The days preceding South Carolina were grueling. Bush's campaign was accused by Gingrich aides of launching low-blow attacks against Newt and his wife Callista, calling him a "Don Juan Newt" due to his affairs, comparing him to a "pimp" in one episode. Evangelical leaders were split. Many big names went for George Bush. But Newt Gingrich earned the support of others. Gingrich aides worried that for the first time they saw wear and tear in their candidate. Gingrich's stunning New Hampshire and Delaware wins launched their campaign into frontrunner status. Their scrappy operation defied expectations and was on the verge of derailing Bush. But would South Carolina deliver for Newt?

SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS
Newt Gingrich        53%  WINNER
George W. Bush     45%

South Carolina did. And Gingrich prevailed again. The Bush campaign was shocked into silence. George W. Bush would meet the next day with his brother in Florida. If Gingrich won both Arizona and Michigan on February 22, there was no way he could carry on the campaign.

UP NEXT: A fiery debate and the Arizona, Michigan primaries.

[Progressive]

I feel like Newt will choose Bush as his VP.

Primaries ain't over!

But this TL will include a very detailed VP selection analysis

[Progressive]

ARIZONA AND MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

February 22, 2000

"Friends and neighbors. Many months ago Cindy and I announced that I would put my name in contention for the presidency. We did not get the results we wanted and weeks back I ended my presidential bid. Since then, the Republican primary has become contentious--full of vitriol, and, let's face it, light on substance. Our party, and more importantly, our country, deserve a contemplative, policy-focused Republican primary focused on what matters to the American people. Let's face it. Speaker Gingrich, a man I like and a man I respect, will win the nomination if he wins our state. I don't believe the Republican race should end. The nomination should be earned. And the current tenor of the GOP debate is not one that I'm comfortable with. We must answer the questions that the American people demand we answer in order to earn their vote. So, to that end, my friends, I urge you to vote for George Walker Bush in the Republican primary on February 22. I have not endorsed Gov. Bush. And I am not casting any judgment on Speaker Gingrich. But I ask you to expand the primary process by supporting Gov. Bush in Arizona so we can have a conversation as a party and as a country about the direction we want America to go in. Thank you."

 - Sen. John McCain, February 20, 2000

ARIZONA PRIMARY RESULTS
George W. Bush    46.9% WINNER
Newt Gingrich       45.9%

Meanwhile, Gov. George W. Bush campaigned with Mitt Romney, a former GOP senate candidate with political aspirations in Massachusetts, who was the son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney. It did Bush little good.

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Newt Gingrich      54% WINNER
George W. Bush   43%

The truth is that the winner of the night was still Newt Gingrich, who won Michigan by 11 points, losing Arizona by just 1 point. But Gingrich and his team were irked by McCain's pseudo-endorsement of Bush. And they worried that other Republican leaders would follow suit in order to deny Gingrich what he wanted: a shortcut to take on Al Gore.

In a speech that night in Virginia, Gingrich declared that "the days of crooked crony Washington politics are over! Americans are speaking louder and clearer by the day--by the election, really. We want to cleanse our cities of criminals and thugs and crack cocaine. We want to close failing schools across the country and replace them with schools of the parents' choice. We want to stop Medicare and Social Security from going bankrupt. And yes, that means making bold choices by putting the fate of these programs in American ingenuity and not the predatory government! Stop Gore! Stop Bush! Join me and take back America from the crooked class!"

Republican party stalwarts grew nervous as Gingrich appeared to embrace more extreme elements of traditional GOP dogma. GOP policy leaders urged Gingrich to tone down the rhetoric on privatization of Medicare and Social Security, and try to embrace "compassionate conservatism," the slogan of Gov. Bush's campaign. Gingrich aides recorded the conversation and aired it to the press in an attempt to prove that DC insiders were trying to prop up the Bush campaign. The controversy took days of coverage and eventually a formal apology was issued to the Gingrich campaign.

NEXT UP: Puerto Rico + Mini Tuesday (Virginia, North Dakota, Washington)

[Progressive]

PUERTO RICO AND MINI TUESDAY I

February 27-29, 2000

Leading up to the February 27 Puerto Rico primary, Republicans George W. Bush and Newt Gingrich held an extremely contentious debate in Virginia, site of one of the Mini Tuesday Republican primaries. Gov. Bush called Gingrich "a good but unhinged man" and Gingrich accused Bush of being part of the "Clinton crony class." Gingrich's populist messaging in the GOP primary touched a nerve with Bush, who thought that his campaign focused on compassionate economic issues through a conservative lens. Making matters worse, Bush nudged his brother Jeb, governor of Florida, out of the way for what was though to be a surefire path to the Republican nomination. Now, just weeks away from both the Florida and Texas primaries, Bush was in a do or die moment. Bush needed a win in Virginia. Washington and North Dakota, with a populist bend in both states, were unlikely to yield him a result. Bush also campaigned in Puerto Rico with his Spanish-speaking brother.

PUERTO RICO PRIMARY
George W. Bush    66% WINNER
Newt Gingrich       31%

VIRGINIA PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich       52% WINNER
George W. Bush    46%

WASHINGTON PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        59% WINNER
George W. Bush     39%

NORTH DAKOTA PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        61% WINNER
George W. Bush     35%

Another near-sweep for Gingrich. Despite losing the low-stakes Puerto Rico primary, Gingrich swept Virginia, Washington, and North Dakota. Virginia was particularly painful for Bush. He hoped that Northern Virginia insiders and Evangelicals in the state would deliver a win. He came 6 points short.

The Bush campaign was running out of money and patience. 12 states were set to vote on March 7. Worse for Bush, polling nationally finally showed Gingrich eclipsing Bush.

CNN: 49% Gingrich, 38% Bush
WSJ: 50% Gingrich, 38% Bush

Bush needs to win California and Northeast primary states on March 7 in order to remain viable for the nomination. If Gingrich wins California, the path to the presidency shrinks for Bush.

NEXT UP: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington [caucus]

[Progressive]

Are the democratic primaries going the same way?

Yes, Democratic primaries are same as IRL. Al Gore will be the Democratic nominee here.

[Progressive]

2000 GOP PRIMARY PUNDIT CHAT

Interactive Feature

Given the hotly contested nature of the Republican Primary, Meet the Press on NBC has added a video production feature in which American voters and election observers can ask pundits questions about the race. So, for the next 24 hours or so, feel free to ask questions about this election so far. A pundit (someone prominent around 2000) will respond in detail to your question. Some examples can be:

How does polling look in Super Tuesday states? California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

Who has received endorsements from whom?

What's Bush's path to nomination?

Etc. Feel free to ask away. Super Tuesday post will come within a day or so.

[Progressive]

1.Is there anyway Bush can be out in the lead after Super Tuesday?

2.Could celebrity endorsements and them trying to get the vote out help for both candidates?

3.How do voters feel about the Bush attack ads against Gingrich about his affair history?

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

1. Bush can reclaim frontrunner status if he were to win a number of the Super Tuesday states out of the ones that are voting on March 7: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

But that may be a very tall order. In public, Bush campaign aides explain that Bush needs to win California or New York and a number of northeastern states voting on March 7. But in private, Bush campaign aides admit that they really need to win both in order to swing the narrative back that Bush is ahead. The Bush team sank $3 million of Bush family money into California alone, only to see Bush go from a 49% to 41% lead over Gingrich to a 47% to 46% deficit of one point. Gingrich has also earned the support of New York Gov. George Pataki and officials in other states where there is voting in Super Tuesday.

2. Both Bush and Gingrich have celebrity endorsements. Democrat Al Gore has most celebrity endorsements. Gingrich notably has Donald Trump and Steve Forbes along with country music stars like Ted Nugent.

3. Gingrich has seen a *slight* drop in support from Evangelicals since the airing of these campaign ads, but he has consistently gained support among white working class Catholics and less religious Republican folks. The trend lines really break down like this: Bush is winning "country club" Republicans and Wall Street Republicans, minus, say, Trump and Forbes. Gingrich is winning "country" Republicans and Main Street Republicans.

[Progressive]

Good job so far.

1.What do the battleground EV maps look like for Gingrich and Bush?

2. What is the status for the Senate? 

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider

1.

This is the generally accepted "swing-state" map. The states shaded in grey are states that Bush, Gingrich, and Gore campaign officials acknowledge will be battlegrounds come the general election. There are some nuances to keep in mind here. For example, rumors continue to grow that Republican Sen. John McCain is being courted as a potential vice presidential candidate for Democrat Al Gore. Should this happen, or should McCain not enthusiastically endorse the eventual Republican nominee, Arizona may remain up there as a swing state. If McCain does come to throw his weight behind the GOP nominee, Arizona may leave that map.

There are a number of paradoxes to keep in mind as well. First, while Bush still outpolls Gingrich in New England states among GOP primary voters, Gingrich on average polls better there against Gore than Bush does. In Texas, voters give Bush a 55% to 35% edge over Gore, but just a 49% to 39% edge over Gingrich. Similarly, in Georgia, voters give Gingrich a 52% to 37% lead over Gore, but give Bush only a 49% to 41% lead over Bush.

2. It's too early to give a serious look at Senate races. There are close races to watch in Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Washington.

[Progressive]

SUPER TUESDAY

March 7, 2000

The second coming of Reagan. A man with loose morals and a quick mouth. A candidate in a league of his own. Gingrich has been called a lot things leading up to the Super Tuesday primary. Gingrich rallied with Gov. George Pataki in New York, with businessman Donald Trump in Connecticut. He won big endorsements with Rep. Virgil Goode of Virginia and California State Treas. Matt Fong. Gingrich held town hall events with Alan Keyes in Maryland, and won the support of fishermen associations in Maine. Slowly, but surely, Gingrich was reshaping the face of the GOP. The brash, the scrappy, the outspoken began to supplant the careful, the cautious, the country club flavor of the GOP of the past decades. And if there were any doubt that Newt Gingrich was the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2000, Super Tuesday proved that the controversial House Speaker was more than a fluke.

CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich       53%   WINNER
George W. Bush     45%

CONNECTICUT PRIMARY
George W. Bush     50% WINNER
Newt Gingrich       48%

GEORGIA PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich       70% WINNER
George W. Bush     30%

MAINE PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        49.9% WINNER
George W. Bush     49.2%

MARYLAND PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        63%  WINNER
George W. Bush     35%

MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        49.98% WINNER
George W. Bush     49.55%

MINNESOTA CAUCUSES
Newt Gingrich         66%  WINNER
George W. Bush      33%

MISSOURI PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich         58%  WINNER
George W. Bush      39%

NEW YORK PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich      53% WINNER
George W. Bush   43%

OHIO PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich       54% WINNER
George W. Bush    44%

RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY
Newt Gingrich        51% WINNER
George W. Bush     46%

VERMONT PRIMARY
George W. Bush     52% WINNER
Newt Gingrich        43%

WASHINGTON CAUCUS
Newt Gingrich        64% WINNER
George W. Bush     36%

In his victory speech in Ohio that night, Gingrich thanked Bush for "putting up a strong fight," but called on Bush and his family to "come together in support of conservative unity against the corrupted Clinton machine." Gingrich and his wife, Callista, along with his two daughters, beamed on stage in awe of the magnitude of the evening. Gingrich won from California to Missouri, from Maine to Georgia.

Meanwhile, at a rally in Florida, Gov. George W. Bush, along with his brother Jeb, Florida's governor, acknowledged the tough defeat of that night but vowed to move forward. In private, brother Jeb was in hysterics. Aides tell varying stories but they all essentially go like this: Jeb confronted George in his Miami hotel room. He pushed a hotel lamp off a table at his brother, George. Jeb, normally mild-mannered, through grating teeth, yelled, "if you lose Florida, I'm f@cked. I'm f@cked. I'm simply f@cked. One of Newt's goons will primary me. Do you understand? I won't even win renomination." Gov. Jeb Bush's wife, Columba, was crying outside of the hotel room, worried that her brother in law's crushing defeat that night, and possibly in the future in Florida, would crush her husband's dreams."

That night, Laura Bush turned to her husband, George and said: "Enough. Let's go home. Let Newt deal with Gore. Let him lose all the states. They'll love you in 01."

UP NEXT: Will George W. Bush drop out? Or will he stay the course?

[Progressive]

"We Don't Have a Path to Victory, But We Have a Mission"

March 8, 2000

In a teary address to supporters in Austin, Texas, Gov. George W. Bush announced that he would "suspend any and all campaign activities" effectively making former House Speaker Newt Gingrich the Republican nominee. For much of 1999 and 2000, the Texas governor was the prohibitive frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Bush's concession and campaign suspension comes after devastating losses once voting went underway.

In his concession speech, Bush did not specifically endorse Gingrich but offered him "warm wishes and success" on the campaign trail.

Meanwhile, Gingrich, at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, PA, Gingrich thanked Bush for his "contribution to the race," and urged the Republican Party to move on in the interest of unity and defeating the "Clinton Gore corruption machine."

UP NEXT: Gingrich Vice Presidential Speculation

[Progressive]

VEEPSTAKES

Spring and Summer 2000

Where Gingrich hit a stride in the primaries, he hit a slump after becoming the presumptive Republican nominee. He spent much of the spring consistently behind Gore between 7 and 12 points nationally, and losing ground fast in reliable Republican states like Virginia and swing states like New Hampshire and New Mexico. Gingrich pigeonholed much of the GOP establishment with his bold policy platform. Some of these policy pronouncements include:

1. Partial privatization of Social Security and Medicare
2. Funding incentives for cities and states that push the creation and semi-privatization of charter schools.
3. Mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes and other federal crimes.
4. Privatization of student loan and small business loan programs and elimination of "redundant, unnecessary, and welfare-state programs."
5. Creation of a Domestic Energy Administration within the Department of Energy focusing on procuring domestic energy spots across the country.

Gore framed these stances, and many others, as medicine too tough to swallow for millions of Americans struggling. Still, Gingrich stood firm in his principles. He knew that his campaign needed another moment of shine. That would come from the vice presidential campaign announcement. Gingrich aides leaked a "long short list" of names being considered for the VP nomination in no particular order.

Rep. John Kasich (R-OH): The House Budget Committee Chair, Kasich stayed neutral during the primary and supports much of Gingrich's economic agenda especially as it relates to balancing the budget.

Gov. John Engler (R-MI) Uncharismatic and wonkish, the Michigan governor has enacted tough welfare reform and is a top prospect for a position in the Gingrich administration.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) Sen. Lugar could provide foreign policy bona fides to Gingrich's campaign. But rumors are swirling that Lugar does not like Gingrich may run in 2004 if Gingrich does not win and would rather not be tainted by a failed presidential campaign.

Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY): The wily billionaire from New York would be a wildcard pick. He recently married his wife Melania and re-registered as a Republican. Many are concerned that he could irritate the base, however.

Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK) Gingrich has stumped on the trail with the Congressman from Oklahoma who could add racial diversity to the ticket. But Gingrich is wary of the criticism that he does not have executive chops and is said to be looking for someone with a stronger portfolio.

Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI): Gingrich often praises the Wisconsin governor for his slashing of welfare rolls and creation of charter vouchers.

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY): Several GOP senators privately urged Gingrich to select Gov. Pataki after Mayor Giuliani dropped out from a Senate race against First Lady Hillary Clinton due to health reasons. They feel that Pataki will add balance and could block her from the Senate seat.

Gen. Colin Powell: Gingrich recently added the general to his foreign policy advisory, but Powell has not seemed inclined to join a ticket, instead preferring a cabinet role.

Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) Adding George W. Bush's brother to the ticket could add a popular swing state governor and soothe Bush family wounds surrounding the primary. Still, in private, Gingrich tells confidants that he loathes "the Bushes."

Carly Fiorina (R-CA) The Hewlett-Packard CEO has only been the top woman in charge for over a year, but Gingrich is impressed with her business and political acumen. Fiorina is the first woman to lead a Top 20 company.

Someone else: Gingrich has suggested he could offer a surprise pick.

Who do you think/want Gingrich to choose?

[Progressive]

VEEPSTAKES: NEWT AND CALLISTA, THE FINAL TALK

July 25, 2000

Newt: Before we make this announcement tomorrow we've got to be sure you're ready to be bold and you have an answer to everything. If you make this work it will be the greatest time of your life. But we can't screw this up I'll be blunt with you, and...

Callista: What Newt means is that this is a really unique chance and we think you're the right choice to be Newt's top partner. This means a lot to me too. You're part of the family, no matter what happens and...

Newt: Well, we will win, that's what will happen.

VP Candidate: Speaker Gingrich, Mrs. Gingrich, you can count on me. This won't be easy  but I've made a lot of success in my life and my wife and my family will make you and this county proud.

Newt: I believe it. We need America to believe it. Look I'll be blunt. My staff is nervous about this. They know you can do the work. They think you're ready to debate. They're worried about your stance on the issues but I'll tell you this they're wrong and here's why. The base needs me. The party needs me. But the country needs both of us and you'll help me make this new coalition of Republicans. What the party insiders don't get is that people want a bright team and that's what you and I will be.

VP Candidate: Mr. Speaker I very much look forward to working with you on this and you can count on me. I believe in your agenda and I will defend it all the way until we win on Election Night.

Callista: It's really an honor to be working with you and your lovely family on this. Tomorrow we break the news and it's going to explode because this is the biggest decision yet.

Newt: Now one final thing. They're thinking Gore is gonna' choose Lieberman, Kerry, Gephardt, Bayh, or Shaheen. I'm hearing he's between Lieberman and Kerry with Shaheen as a wildcard. Are you comfortable not just debating them but effectively destroying them in a debate?

VP Candidate: I will do that and more, sir.

NEXT POST: THE ANNOUNCEMENT! Can you guess who it will be? The answer may surprise you

[Progressive]

VEEP PICK SHOCK! POLITICAL WORLD ROCKED

July 26, 2000

In Detroit, MI on July 26, 2000, GOP nominee Newt Gingrich shocked the political world by choosing wealthy businessman and Winter Olympics Committee chair Mitt Romney as his running mate. The son of the late Governor George Romney, Mitt Romney was a relative neophyte to politics having run an unsuccessful but spirited race in 1994 against Sen. Ted Kennedy. At the Detroit rally, Romney introduced his wife Ann and his family, and promised to help lead Newt Gingrich to victory for "bold, conservative principles." Instantly, right-wing groups began to launch diatribes against Romney's "liberal positions." But soon, Focus on the Family and other right-wing values groups came to Romney's defense, calling him a "staunch and steadfast supporter of a conservative Supreme Court."

The Gingrich campaign instantly launched varying 30-second ads introducing Gingrich's running mate in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Michigan, and a number of other states followed suit. Karl Rove called the pick "embarrassing and destabilizing," which earned the condemnation of his former boss, Gov. George W. Bush who said that he "welcomed Mr. Romney to the ticket and was pleased to support his compassionate conservatism."

Al Gore and the Democrats began to pile on the lack of foreign policy credentials of the GOP ticket. To hone in on his campaign theme of "steady, effective government," Al Gore chose Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, possibly as a foil to Romney, to serve as VP.

Up Next: GOP Convention and Fall Political Primer

[Progressive]

RNC Convetion

July-August 2000

It's in the history books. Newt Gingrich, the controversial former House speaker was the Republican nominee for president. And for his running mate, an obscure businessman from Massachusetts. A Mormon, former Senate candidate, and son of a Michigan governor: Mitt Romney. Pundits observed that the 2000 GOP Convention had a cheery, patriotic tone oozing with calls for an end to "Clinton Gore corruption" and calling for an "America first" economic and foreign policy.

For the first time in the 2000 election, Newt Gingrich led Al Gore in head to head polls on average 47% to Gore's 43%. Gore's message of competent, steady government was not resonating people who desired "change" or who felt their economic situation was not improving.

At the GOP Convention, the Bush family gave resounding endorsements of Gingrich as did Sen. John McCain and others. It was clear--the GOP put aside its differences and made a promise to Gingrich and Romney to push them as close to 270 electoral votes as possible. Fearing a potential primary challenge in 2002, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the keynote speaker at the convention, along with United Way president Elaine Chao gave rousing speeches.

Going forward, the Republican coordinated campaign was in full swing. During the Democratic convention in Los Angeles, Columba Bush and Callista Gingrich held joint rallies in seven different locations in Florida while Mitt Romney and his wife Ann held numerous town hall events in Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada. Newt Gingrich was pumping out 3-4 campaign events a day while Al Gore was averaging about 1 or 2 a day. Gingrich believed in "expanding the map," and directed his campaign to pour resources into Upper Midwest and Northeast states.

NEXT: FIRST POLLS CLOSE!
NOW: ASK ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN BEFORE FIRST POLLS CLOSE FOR ELECTION NIGHT 2000

[Progressive]

RNC Convetion

July-August 2000

It's in the history books. Newt Gingrich, the controversial former House speaker was the Republican nominee for president. And for his running mate, an obscure businessman from Massachusetts. A Mormon, former Senate candidate, and son of a Michigan governor: Mitt Romney. Pundits observed that the 2000 GOP Convention had a cheery, patriotic tone oozing with calls for an end to "Clinton Gore corruption" and calling for an "America first" economic and foreign policy.

For the first time in the 2000 election, Newt Gingrich led Al Gore in head to head polls on average 47% to Gore's 43%. Gore's message of competent, steady government was not resonating people who desired "change" or who felt their economic situation was not improving.

At the GOP Convention, the Bush family gave resounding endorsements of Gingrich as did Sen. John McCain and others. It was clear--the GOP put aside its differences and made a promise to Gingrich and Romney to push them as close to 270 electoral votes as possible. Fearing a potential primary challenge in 2002, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the keynote speaker at the convention, along with United Way president Elaine Chao gave rousing speeches.

Going forward, the Republican coordinated campaign was in full swing. During the Democratic convention in Los Angeles, Columba Bush and Callista Gingrich held joint rallies in seven different locations in Florida while Mitt Romney and his wife Ann held numerous town hall events in Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada. Newt Gingrich was pumping out 3-4 campaign events a day while Al Gore was averaging about 1 or 2 a day. Gingrich believed in "expanding the map," and directed his campaign to pour resources into Upper Midwest and Northeast states.

NEXT: FIRST POLLS CLOSE!
NOW: ASK ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN BEFORE FIRST POLLS CLOSE FOR ELECTION NIGHT 2000

Is Massachusetts going to be anywhere near close with Romney on the ticket or will it stay Safe D like usual?

MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL ELECTION RCP AVERAGE - 2000
August 2000:             Gore (D) 49% - Gingrich (R) 37% - Nader (G) 4%
September 2000:       Gore (D) 52% - Gingrich 38% - Nader (G) 3%
October 2000:           Gore (D) 53% - Gingrich 42% - Nader (G) 2%
Final Polling:             Gore (D)  52% - Gingrich 43% - Nader (G) 2%

[Progressive]

Could you cover the Senate races, please?

Could you cover the Senate races, please?

CLOSELY WATCHED SENATE RACES

California STRONG DEMOCRAT
Despite a Gingrich internal poll showing the GOP nominee heading north of 40% in the state, incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is expected to dispatch GOP Rep. Tom Campbell

Delaware LEAN DEMOCRAT
Incumbent Sen. William Roth, Jr.'s fortunes have collapsed since the summer where Gov. Tom Carper overtook him in the polls. VP nominee Mitt Romney held a number of fundraisers for Sen. Roth and held a campaign event in Delaware with the hopes of making it a swing state.

Florida TOSSUP
Rep. Bill McCollum (R) and Treas. Bill Nelson (D) are locked in a heated battle that has largely focused on local issues and stayed clear of the Gingrich-Gore slugfest. Gov. Jeb Bush has become less popular in the state since the presidential primary, and his support for McCollum has lost its luster.

Georgia LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Incumbent and appointed Sen. Zell Miller (D) hopes to fend off a challenge from former Sen. Mack Mattingly (R). Ordinarily, this race would be Miller's to lose. But Gingrich's wild popularity in his home state of Georgia could tighten the race.

Michigan TOSSUP
Sen. Spencer Abraham (R) is facing the battle of his life from Rep. Dabbie Stabenow (D). Gore is expected to win Michigan, and the support of the AFL-CIO may push Stabenow on top. Still, the GOP is hoping to capitalize on winning "Reagan Democrats," and Abraham may hang on.

Minnesota LEAN REPUBLICAN
St. Auditor Mark Dayton (D) and Sen. Rod Grams are locked in a very tight race, but Gingrich's appeal to working class Democrats in Minnesota may push Dayton to the side.

Missouri TOSSUP
Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) is dead, but so is incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft's popularity in Missouri. Still, Newt Gingrich's appeal to working class voters in Missouri is pushing it further out of grasp of Gore's hand, and may rescue Ashcroft's re-election bid.

Montana LEAN REPUBLICAN
Farmer Brian Schweitzer (D) is running a strong campaign, but incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns has a slight edge in polls.

Nebraska TOSSUP
Nebraska AG Don Stenberg (R) is trying to pry the seat from Democrat Gov. Ben Nelson upon Sen. Kerrey's retirement. Polls have suggested either man could win.

Nevada LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Rep. John Ensign (R) is running a strong campaign and is likely to ride Gingrich's wave of popularity in the west.

New Jersey TOSSUP
Mitt Romney has held numerous fundraisers for Rep. Bob Franks, the Republican trying to snag the seat from Democrats.

New York LEAN DEMOCRAT
First Lady Hillary Clinton (D) has a moderate lead in polls, but Rep. Rick Lazio (R) is trying to ride support for Gingrich on Long Island and in Upstate.

Pennsylvania LEAN REPUBLICAN
Rep. Rick Santorum (R) has campaigned extensively with Newt Gingrich in Pennsylvania. Gingrich called Santorum "the future of our party" and Santorum holds a polling edge over Democratic Rep. Ron Klink.

Virginia LEAN REPUBLICAN
Incumbent Sen. Chuck Robb (D) just has not sealed the deal this year and consistently falls behind Gov. George Allen (R) in the polls.

Washington TOSSUP
Rep. Maria Cantwell (D) and incumbent Sen. Slade Gordon (R) are locked in a tight contest. Gingrich polls poorly in Washongton, giving Gordon concern.

[Progressive]

1.Do the Gore campaign feel like they have a advantage when it comes to VPs?

2:Most likely states to flip?

3.Will runner up Govenor Bush campaign for Gingrich?

This is the final swing state map. Gingrich rather safely has 210 electoral votes, and Gore rather safely has 189 electoral votes. In the last few weeks in October, Gingrich has surged in polling in the Midwest and the Northeast. Meanwhile, the Gore campaign has doubled-down in its funding for campaign events in the South, hoping to pick off a state like Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, or West Virginia. George W. Bush held events for Gingrich in Iowa and Florida.

[Progressive]

Debate Summary

Four Commission on Presidential Debates took place in the 2000 general election cycle including one debate between Businessman Mitt Romney (R) and Senator Joe Lieberman (D).

Debate #1: PBS/UMass:

This debate, the first one in the series, was surprisingly cordial, focused mainly on policies and campaign choices. Gingrich highlighted major policy differences and economic outlines to end the "predatory welfare state." Gore said the pressing issues of the day required a president focused on creating jobs not eliminating safety nets. This earned resounding applause. But Gore lost points on poise, speaking like a runner who'd just run out of a breath from a brisk morning run at each time it was his turn to speak. At times Gore seemed angry and called Gingrich "wholly unqualified" and called Mitt Romney a "disastrous, reckless choice." Gingrich shot back and said that the Founding Fathers would have chosen Mitt Romney as vice president. "He is the son of American business, American ingenuity and American promise. That's what our Founding Fathers envisioned--a citizen candidate and soon to be YOUR citizen vice president."

Edge: Gingrich, but both candidates appeared amateurish

Debate #2: Vice Presidential-CNN/Norton Center for the Arts

Romney spent much of the debate introducing himself to the 33.7 million Americans tuned into to hear him speak, many for the first time. He outlined his success in business, his humility from a failed candidacy for Senate, and his effectiveness in reversing the financial ruin of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics games. He often went on the attack calling Gore and Lieberman a product of "corrupt, crony Washington politics." Meanwhile, Lieberman urged voters to consider that he and Gore were a "steady hand in Washington."

Edge: Romney on both style and substance--more and more, it appears that the electorate is looking for signs of change.

Debate #3: PBS/Wake Forest

This was a real scrabble between Gore and Gingrich. Both men traded insults and policy prescriptions got lost in the narrative of the politics. The tone and tenor of the campaign were clearly affecting the psyche of both men. Gore gave a very strong defense of proactive environmental policies, to which Gingrich retorted, "listen to this guy. This is what liberal elites do. They want to control the weather when I want to control welfare frauds from digging into your pockets." This may have been a bridge too far, eliciting boos from the audience for the first time all year in a debate.

Edge: Rather solid Gore victory, despite pettiness early in the debate.

Debate #4: PBS/Wash U

Gingrich needed a win tonight. He saw his national numbers drop a full point after the last debate from about 47% in the polls to 46%. Gore hovered between 45% and 46%. But on this night Gore delivered sermon-like policy proposals and appeared presidential. He surgically explained the faults of the Clinton presidency and explained why Gore would just be more of the same. Gore seemed tired, irritated, and exasperated. He was a policy wonk. In his view, he wanted to focus on renewable energy, environmental protections, and technological innovation, and his opponent was auditioning to be a talking head on Fox News. But Gingrich had the last word. "I'm asking you, America, for a chance. Join me. Give me a shot. I won't let you down in making America once again that shining city on the hill."

Edge: Clear Gingrich
 
Nader Factor

Nader was polling 2-3% nationally, though his support appeared to be dropping by the day. Liberals were coming home to Gore with the concern that Gingrich was gaining steam electorally and was doubling down on his anti-liberal, conservative policies.

QUESTION FOR THE AUDIENCE

Next several posts will be actual election returns from election night. What format do you want?

1. Mini-script of election night coverage from news network? (Covering from beginning to end)
2. Final results of polls as they close? (I.e. I will post Vermont, SC, KY, etc in their entirety upon poll closings)?

[Progressive]

7:00pm

Welcome to Election Night coverage of the contentious 2000 presidential election. It's fair to say that both parties are waiting with bated breath to find out the results tonight. The presidency, Senate, and House are up for grabs. It's 7:00pm and there are poll closings to report.

In the state of Indiana, with its 12 electoral votes, Newt Gingrich can be declared the winner:

19% reporting
Gingrich  58.9%
Gore 39.0%

A similar story in the great state of Kentucky. Now this one stings for the Gore campaign because in the last few weeks they sunk $300,000 into advertising in Kentucky. But Gingrich has won Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes tonight.

10% reporting
Gingrich  59.3%
Gore 39.3%

The news gets brighter for Al Gore in Vermont with its 3 electoral votes. Vice President Gore has won Vermont.

56% reporting
Gore 56.0%
Gingrich  40.1%

But there's more that we don't know than what we do know and here's where it's too close to call. In the state of Florida and its 25 electoral votes it is too close to call with a Gingrich lead. Keep in mind that much of southeastern Florida has not yet been counted and this could tilt in favor of Gore, but for now, Gingrich has a rather impressive lead in Florida.

65% reporting

Gingrich  52.6%
Gore 45.0%

Same story in Virginia. Much of northern Virginia in the DC suburbs has not reported its numbers, but Newt Gingrich has an impressive lead thus far over Gore, though this race is expected to tighten.

70% reporting
Gingrich  54.0%
Gore 44.4%

7:25pm

It is just 25 minutes past the hour and we have a number of crucial calls we can make. In the state of Virginia we can declare that Newt Gingrich has won Old Dominion, underperforming Clinton badly in the north but winning unprecedented margins in the southwest.

91% reporting
Gingrich  52.9%
Gore 45.9%

We can now report Georgia and South Carolina as well

Georgia
80% reporting
Gingrich  56.2%
Gore 42.2%

South Carolina
55% reporting
Gingrich  58.8%
Gore 39.7%

Well the night is not shaping up very much as all. No real surprised here, perhaps, other than the fact that Gingrich essentially leads in all states where polls have closed. This could spell trouble for the Gore campaign. 7:30pm update next. Currently, Gingrich has 54 electoral voters to Gore's 3 electoral votes, but the night is young.

[Progressive]

Donna Brazile and Vice President Al Gore chat at 7:45pm EST.

DB: Al, can I come in?
AG: Donna, what's going on. It's not going our way is it?
DB: Look I didn't say that--
AG: Just tell me where we stand ok, Donna?
DB: We just lost West Virginia

43% reporting
Newt Gingrich 53.44%
Al Gore 43.22%

DB: Hold on, they just called North Carolina for Gingrich?
AG: Already?
DB: Yes, already [DB hands memo to AG]

19% reporting
Newt Gingrich 56.36%
Al Gore 41.07%

AG: What about the Senate?
DB: Bill Nelson is up slightly, Zell Miller is gonna' win but smaller than expected. Ummm...George Allen is up big. DeWine is gonna' win.
AG: Any good news?
DB: Nothing yet sir, here's where we stand in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida, 92% reporting
Newt Gingrich 50.9%
Al Gore 47.8%

Ohio, 31% reporting
Al Gore 48.95%
Newt Gingrich 48.61%

New Hampshire, 80% reporting
Newt Gingrich 49.95%
Al Gore 47.34%

Gingrich 73
Gore       3

[Progressive]

8:00pm

Called for NEWT GINGRICH

Florida (25)
Newt Gingrich  50.3%
Al Gore 48.2%

Alabama (9)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (7)
Oklahoma ( 8 )
Texas (32)

Called for AL GORE


Connecticut ( 8 )
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Illinois (22)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Ohio, 65% reporting
Newt Gingrich 49.9%
Al Gore 46.5%

New Hampshire, 93% reporting
Newt Gingrich 49.4%
Al Gore    46.3%

Maine, 30% reporting
Newt Gingrich   48.1%
Al Gore  47.6%

Michigan, 49% reporting
Newt Gingrich 48.9%
Al Gore  48.3%

Missouri, 10% reporting
Newt Gingrich 51.5%
Al Gore 46.0%

Pennsylvania, 33% reporting
Newt Gingrich 48.43%
Al Gore 48.42%

Tennessee, 7% reporting
Newt Gingrich 52.2%
Al Gore   45.7%

8:23pm

Called for GINGRICH

Ohio (21), 79% reporting
Newt Gingrich 49.7%
Al Gore 46.7%

Missouri (11) , 55% reporting
Newt Gingrich 52.1%
Al Gore 45.5%

8:47pm

Called for GINGRICH

Arkansas (6), 21% reporting
Newt Gingrich 52.8%
Al Gore 44.9%

8:58pm

Called for Gingrich

Maine (3/4), 66% reporting
Newt Gingrich  48.9%
Al Gore    47.0%

Pennsylvania (23), 84% reporting
Newt Gingrich 49.3%
Al Gore 48.1%

Gingrich has earned 217 electoral votes, with 77 for Gore. 33 electoral votes are uncalled. Gingrich is on the cusp of victory. The Gore campaign strategy has crashed.

SHOCK NEWS: Rumors are swirling that Democratic vice presidential candidate, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is on the phone with GOP vice presidential candidate Mitt Romney lobbying for a potential position in a future Gingrich administration.

[Progressive]

FINAL RESULTS

Newt Gingrich 338 votes  50.5% popular vote
Al Gore 200 votes          47.1% popular vote

NOTES TO ALL

1. Thanks everyone for viewing and I appreciate all the comments and suggestions.
2. Let me know if you want to know more about specific races?
3. **Should I create a Presidency of Newt Gingrich timeline?** "43: NEWT!" would be part one in a series about the Gingrich presidency.