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Author Topic: Post your SC-05 predictions here  (Read 1331 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: June 10, 2017, 09:38:01 AM »
My prediction:

53.5% Ralph Norman (R)
43.3% Archie Parnell (D)
  1.6% Josh Thornton (A)
  1.0% Victor Kocher (L)
  0.4% David Kulma (G)
  0.2% Write-Ins

Norman (R) wins by 10.2 points.
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smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2017, 11:59:22 AM »
Close to my. Low double digits Norman...
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2017, 10:00:21 PM »
52% Ralph Norman (R)
45% Archie Parnell (D)
Other 3%
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2017, 10:02:56 PM »
Norman(R):  54%
Parnell(D):  42%
Other:  6%
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2017, 11:03:21 PM »
Norman 56
Parnell 41
Kocher 2%
Thornton 0.4%
Write-in/Other 0.6%
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2017, 11:54:49 PM »
Ralph Norman (R)-55.55%
Archie Parnell (D)-41.50%
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2017, 12:01:16 AM »
Norman 55
Parnell 43
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GlobeSoc
The walrus
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2017, 09:23:18 AM »
53-Norman
44-Parnell
3-Everyone else
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JMT
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2017, 11:10:51 AM »
Quote from: Not_Madigan on June 10, 2017, 10:02:56 PM
Norman(R):  54%
Parnell(D):  42%
Other:  6%

This does not add up to 100%

But I agree with the Norman/Parnell percentages.

Norman: 54%
Parnell: 42%
Others: 4%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2017, 07:04:56 AM »
I won't change my prediction for this one ...
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2017, 04:03:23 PM »
55% Norman (R)
44% Parnell (D)
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Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2017, 05:26:56 PM »
Norman (R):  53%
Parnell (D):  43%
Other:  4%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: June 18, 2017, 05:51:46 PM »
Norman 56%
Parnell 42%
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2017, 07:30:43 PM »
Ralph Norman: 56.5%
Archie Parnell: 40.5%
Josh Thornton: 2.0%
Others: 1.0%
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Kamala
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2017, 02:48:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/876880834392936448

New poll has Norman ahead by 9. 53-44.

That's a 6-point swing from 2016 and a much smaller swing from 2014 and 2012. What that tells me is that Parnell is effectively maxing out the Dem vote in this district, and there are very few Republicans voting for him.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2017, 02:52:06 PM »
Quote from: Bring Back the Big Tent on June 19, 2017, 02:48:05 PM
https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/876880834392936448

New poll has Norman ahead by 9. 53-44.

That's a 6-point swing from 2016 and a much smaller swing from 2014 and 2012. What that tells me is that Parnell is effectively maxing out the Dem vote in this district, and there are very few Republicans voting for him.

It's actually an 11-point swing from 2016. Mulvaney won by more than 20 points last year.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2017, 02:56:11 PM »
So does the dem have any chance here at all?

Harry enten said that polls of house races have MOE of like ten.  A 9 point lead could be a tie for all we know.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2017, 06:35:00 PM »
Quote from: marty on June 19, 2017, 02:56:11 PM
So does the dem have any chance here at all?

Harry enten said that polls of house races have MOE of like ten.  A 9 point lead could be a tie for all we know.

Not a chance in heck that the dem wins. Too racially polarized, and too many southern rural whites in this cd.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2017, 06:36:51 PM »
Norman 54%
Parnell 43%
Other 3%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2017, 06:40:40 PM »
Oh what the heck, might as well give a prediction.

Norman:55
Parnell:42
Other:3
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2017, 07:03:21 PM »

I agree with this.
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SATW
SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2017, 07:09:24 PM »
55% Norman
43% Parnell
2% Other
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2017, 08:37:47 PM »
Norman 53%
Parnell 44%
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JGibson
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: June 19, 2017, 08:39:50 PM »
Norman (R) 54.4%
Parnell (D) 42.9%
Others 2.7%
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