Dana Rohrabacher suggests the US should support ISIS against Iran

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link to video

Later goes on to say that we should support ISIS against Iran, just like how we supported Stalin to get rid of Hitler.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2018 ad: Rohrabacher supports ISIS.

[NewYorkExpress]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link to video

Later goes on to say that we should support ISIS against Iran, just like how we supported Stalin to get rid of Hitler.

It's not exactly a good thing that we supported Stalin against Hitler, when Stalin would have beaten him anyways, because Hitler was an insane idiot.

Rorhabacher doesn't seem to understand that the "lesser of two evils" defense doesn't apply when both parties are equally evil.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rohrabacher is a very sensible guy and a Ron Paul acolyte. He probably meant to say we should support Iran against ISIS/support other Sunni militant groups within Iran. Nothing he said suggests we should back ISIS.

[Virginiá]

Oh my God. That's worse than what George Allen and Todd Akin said

It wasn't as clear or simple as Akin, so that could make it have less of an impact. Either way, if he is smart, he will stop talking and go hide somewhere until election time next year. Despite what he seems to think, his seat is no longer safe, and dumb comments like this will only hasten his downfall.

Kind of lucky for Democrats too - CA-48 was supposed to be one of the harder nuts to crack in California.

[This account no longer in use.]

D+1

[Technocracy Timmy]

He may be a stupid congressman, but he's MY stupid congressman. For real though. F**k this guy.

Hopefully this will win over the national security moderate Republicans in this district. We voted for Clinton over Trump after all. I'm trying to get Harley Rouda elected and volunteering soon to help his campaign.

[SATW]

Can someone primary this asshole already? if not, can a semi-decent democrat beat him?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Can someone primary this asshole already? if not, can a semi-decent democrat beat him?

I'm working on it from the Democratic side. Harley Rouda seems to be a pretty solid Democratic candidate that can win in the right conditions come 2018.

This is a district that's diversifying. But it's still a fairly white Reaganite suburban affluent district. The voters here are usually wealthier and college educated so they're not as elastic as their lower income and noncollege educated counterparts. It's a tough nut to crack as Virginia said.

The two keys are the Vietnamese and Hispanic communities who compromise the overwhelming majority of the district's nonwhite population (which I believe is about 37-42%). The Vietnamese youth are generally much more likely to vote Dem than their parents and the Hispanic population here is primarily of Mexican heritage and are VERY anti-Trump. So turnout from those communities is key.

We'll have to tie Rohrabacher to Trump in the minds of every voter we possibly can to flip this district (barring unusually positive circumstances that would benefit us such as a Trump impeachment).

[kyc0705]

[Chief Justice Keef]

F[inks] Rohrabacher.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I had to read the thread title four times to make sense of that, then I saw the video.

This guy has become a walking disaster. He's doubling down on his pro-Russia stances, making no effort to distance himself from Trump even though his district voted for Clinton, and even Kevin McCarthy thinks Putin pays him.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm working on it from the Democratic side. Harley Rouda seems to be a pretty solid Democratic candidate that can win in the right conditions come 2018.

This is a district that's diversifying. But it's still a fairly white Reaganite suburban affluent district. The voters here are usually wealthier and college educated so they're not as elastic as their lower income and noncollege educated counterparts. It's a tough nut to crack as Virginia said.

The two keys are the Vietnamese and Hispanic communities who compromise the overwhelming majority of the district's nonwhite population (which I believe is about 37-42%). The Vietnamese youth are generally much more likely to vote Dem than their parents and the Hispanic population here is primarily of Mexican heritage and are VERY anti-Trump. So turnout from those communities is key.

We'll have to tie Rohrabacher to Trump in the minds of every voter we possibly can to flip this district (barring unusually positive circumstances that would benefit us such as a Trump impeachment).

As some who has a large amount of family living in Orange County, and who has visited the area many times to see them, I think I know the lay of the land down there. However, as an Orange County resident, I would like to see what you think about the potentially competitive districts in the region. I personally have the feeling that Rohrabacher was the safest, but he appears to never have faced a competitive election before and could be on the path to getting caught with his pants down.

How would you rank the four from best to worst chance at Democratic pickups? Obviously Issa comes first but then who comes next out of the 39th, 46th, and 48th?

[KingSweden]

2018 ad: Rohrabacher supports ISIS.

[Kamala]

I thought Mimi Walters was probably the safest Orange County republican..?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Oryxslayer and Kamala,

I don't know much about the politics of neighboring districts to mine. I've really only studied the area of California's 48th and up until 2016 I never thought it would become competitive until I was much older. The 48th district swung 12 points Dem from 2012-2016. But large swings don't necessarily dictate a long term trend (or at least dictate that the trend is increasing in its pace). I'm unaware what the trends were for the other Orange County/socal districts so I can't really comment.

Rohrabacher could just as easily win reelection by 10+ points or lose by a few points. The large swing in this district could be a statistical anomaly. Maybe the anti-Trump Hispanic vote doesn't show up to the extent they did in 2016 and many college whites and Vietnamese voters who voted Rohrabacher downvallot but Hillary Clinton for President could just as easily stay in line with Congressman Rohrabacher.

RINO Tom and I have previously argued that these voters aren't very swingable and will likely stay mostly Republican even with Trump in office. I still lean towards that idea even today. But Congressman Rohrabacher is so incompetent and arrogant that a strong campaign from a solid candidate could catch him by surprise. I'm not sure if this applies to other Clinton-GOP districts in the area.

[MATTROSE94]

More proof that the US has a biased policy against Shi'a Muslims.

[mvd10]

I wonder when they will start calling for supporting radical Islamic terrorists (omg I said it) against Merkel and her Eurabian liberal fascist cronies. Maybe the GOP needs to be wiped out before we get rid of these idiots...

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I wonder when they will start calling for supporting radical Islamic terrorists (omg I said it) against Merkel and her Eurabian liberal fascist cronies. Maybe the GOP needs to be wiped out before we get rid of these idiots...

is this a serious post? i can't tell

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oh my God. That's worse than what George Allen and Todd Akin said

You mean more honest. This is the position of tons of members of congress, but most aren't honest enough to admit to being ISIS supporters.

[mvd10]

I wonder when they will start calling for supporting radical Islamic terrorists (omg I said it) against Merkel and her Eurabian liberal fascist cronies. Maybe the GOP needs to be wiped out before we get rid of these idiots...

is this a serious post? i can't tell

Nah, I'm part of the fiscally conservative sociall liberal™ NeverTrump crowd.

[Badger]

Kobacker has always been one crazy mother f*****

[socaldem]

I'm working on it from the Democratic side. Harley Rouda seems to be a pretty solid Democratic candidate that can win in the right conditions come 2018.

This is a district that's diversifying. But it's still a fairly white Reaganite suburban affluent district. The voters here are usually wealthier and college educated so they're not as elastic as their lower income and noncollege educated counterparts. It's a tough nut to crack as Virginia said.

The two keys are the Vietnamese and Hispanic communities who compromise the overwhelming majority of the district's nonwhite population (which I believe is about 37-42%). The Vietnamese youth are generally much more likely to vote Dem than their parents and the Hispanic population here is primarily of Mexican heritage and are VERY anti-Trump. So turnout from those communities is key.

We'll have to tie Rohrabacher to Trump in the minds of every voter we possibly can to flip this district (barring unusually positive circumstances that would benefit us such as a Trump impeachment).

As some who has a large amount of family living in Orange County, and who has visited the area many times to see them, I think I know the lay of the land down there. However, as an Orange County resident, I would like to see what you think about the potentially competitive districts in the region. I personally have the feeling that Rohrabacher was the safest, but he appears to never have faced a competitive election before and could be on the path to getting caught with his pants down.

How would you rank the four from best to worst chance at Democratic pickups? Obviously Issa comes first but then who comes next out of the 39th, 46th, and 48th?

CA-39 Ed Royce
District Partisanship - Toss-up
Incumbent Strength - Very Strong
Rating: Toss-up


This seat straddles the meeting place of three large counties--L.A., O.C., and San Bernardino.

This district is probably experiencing the most consistent movement towards the Democrats and is extremely diverse with large Asian-American and latino communities.

The district is based in Fullerton, which has over 135,000 residents. Fullerton is home to Cal State Fullerton and has large latino and Asian-American populations. Buena Park (home to Knotts Berry Farm) and La Habra are also quite diverse. These cities have a clear Democratic lean and anchor the 65th assembly district with Assemblywoman (former Fullerton Councilwoman) Sharon Quirk-Silva and State Senator Josh Newman--both of whom picked up seats from the GOP in November.

The GOP base of the district is Northeast Orange County--Yorba Linda, Brea, Placentia--still largely white commuter communities and home to the Nixon library. Chino Hills in San Bernardino County is growing more diverse but still has a clear GOP lean to it.

The L.A. County portion of the district leans Democratic also and is home to the sizable Chinese-American community of the South San Gabriel Valley (Hacienda Heights, Rowland Heights, Walnut, Diamond Bar). There is also a significant latino presence in the area. Unlike the community in the West/Central SGV, where the Chinese-American community has been organized and activated by the Judy Chu/Mike Eng/Ed Chau political machine, the community in the SE SGV has been more often represented by GOP Asian-Americans.

One challenge is that the more Democratic areas--Hacienda Heights and Rowland Heights--are unincorporated so there is not a municipal platform from which to launch a political career.

The key for Democrats here is to ramp up party-line voters in Fullerton, Buena Park, and the L.A. portion of the district to counter-balance GOP areas and Royce's personal popularity. Royce is very well-connected locally and known as a nice man with great constituent services.

This is certainly the least white non-Cuban district held by a Republican (with the possible exception of TX-23) with a white, non-hispanic population of only about 35%. 36% Republican; 35% Democratic. 50.8% Romney '12; 54% Whitman '12.

CA-45 Mimi Walters
District Partisanship - Lean Republican
Incumbent Strength - Strong
Rating: Lean Republican


Mimi Walters is the type of mainstream Republican that one would expect to do well in Orange County. The old Orange County.

Irvine, home of UCI, anchors the district, and is getting more and more Democratic--the result of a large, mostly Asian-American major university and a largely Asian-American resident population.

Tustin and Orange are more working class cities that combine growing latino populations with generally conservative whites that have pushed the cites towards the Dems. Many of the latino areas in Orange, however, are in the neighboring district held by Lou Correa.

The GOP strength in the district is in the East and South of the district. Lake Forest and Laguna Hills, are more conservative working class white communities that haven't yet diversified. Meanwhile  Rancho Santa Margarita, Coto de Caza, Mission Viejo, and Villa Park are wealthy and conservative--real Housewives of Orange County megamansion territory.

Mimi Walters seems like a strong, though largely untested incumbent. This district is one of the more elastic ones in the area with much stronger Democratic performance in presidential years and--even then--considerable swings from one year to the next. The key issue will be to run up margins in Irvine and to do well in Tustin and Orange.

59% white; 39% Republican; 31% Democratic. 54% Romney '12; 59% Whitman '12.

CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher
District Partisanship - Lean R
Incumbent Strength - Very weak
Rating: Lean Democratic

The Republican base in this coastal Orange County district is Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach and Newport Coast are very wealthy, very white and is home to the yacht set. Much of the money in the areas is old money derived from conservative business interests and industries. Huntington Beach has a bit of a rougher more working class vibe. It is also very white, but is more working class with many residents probably having most of their wealth tied up in their family homes. In some ways, Trump's politics fits in quite well with Huntington Beach's white residents where people combine devout Christianity, nationalism, prejudice, and a hedonistic party lifestyle.

Costa Mesa and Fountain Valley are rapidly diversifying communities. The white population is similar to Huntington Beach, as described above. In Fountain Valley (and parts of HB), there is a growing Vietnamese community, which once had voted solidly GOP. Obama made tremendous strides with Vietnamese voters and Trump has pushed the community further towards the Democrats--particularly young voters. Costa Mesa, meanwhile, has a burgeoning latino community.

Laguna Beach is a liberal bastion in the district, an artsy seaside village with a substantial LGBT community. Nearby Aliso Viejo is also quite diverse and home to a number of tech firms and also gays priced out of Laguna.

There are a couple large retirement communities in the district, also. Laguna Woods in the South is essentially a giant retirement community that tends to be evenly split in Presidential races and which (prior to Trump) had been trending slightly GOP. Seal Beach is home to Leisure World and a military base and tends to lean GOP.

The key for Democrats is to win big in the South of the district, Costa Mesa, and Fountain Valley to counterbalance Newport Beach. A Democrat will also need to break even in the north of the district--HB/Seal Beach.

The district is the whitest Orange County seats--63% white; 41% GOP, 30% Dem; 54% Romney '12, 58% Whitman '12

CA-49
Rep. Darrell Issa
District Partisanship: Toss-up
Incumbent Strength: Weak
Race Rating: Likely Democratic

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Clever geopolitical move. What could possibly go wrong?

[Technocracy Timmy]

CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher
District Partisanship - Lean R
Incumbent Strength - Very weak
Rating: Lean Democratic

The Republican base in this coastal Orange County district is Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach and Newport Coast are very wealthy, very white and is home to the yacht set. Much of the money in the areas is old money derived from conservative business interests and industries. Huntington Beach has a bit of a rougher more working class vibe. It is also very white, but is more working class with many residents probably having most of their wealth tied up in their family homes. In some ways, Trump's politics fits in quite well with Huntington Beach's white residents where people combine devout Christianity, nationalism, prejudice, and a hedonistic party lifestyle.

This analysis is mostly good but if I remember correctly, the precincts in HB and NB swung against Trump compared to their support of Romney. So I don't think it's accurate to say that Trump's politics fit well in this community-at least when compared to Romney's.