Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024

[I’m not Stu]

What would a map look like? More Hispanic voters are voting in TX. I noticed Trump didn't do as well in Texas as previous Republicans.

[Young Conservative]

He didn't do as well primarily as a result of Trump being a horrible fit. Secretary Clinton hardly did better than President Obama in 2008. The difference was the Republican vote, largely due to third party protest votes. With any other GOP candidate, it would have been double digit R.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Piggybacking on what Silent Cal said, a scenario where Texas goes Dem in 2020 or even 2024 means that it's a realigning election. Dems have 400+ electoral votes in their column if they win Texas.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

It isn't hard to envision a scenario where dems break 400 EV's with a 7-8 point victory. 365 EV's in a 7 point victory is abnormally low.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If Texas votes Democratic, it'll be like a 1992-style realignment. That being said, I kinda doubt it will by 2020. I think Democrats will start winning down-ballot races there before they start it in presidential elections, kind of like Virginia before 2008.

[RINO Tom]

If Texas votes Democratic, it'll be like a 1992-style realignment. That being said, I kinda doubt it will by 2020. I think Democrats will start winning down-ballot races there before they start it in presidential elections, kind of like Virginia before 2008.

But, IIRC, the maps that allowed VA Democrats to win downballot races before 2008 didn't really resemble the maps that allowed upballot VA Democrats to win post-2008; do you think a similar thing will happen with Texas?

[Sir Mohamed]

Quite frankly, I don’t see it in 2020 or 2024. Though the state slightly becomes more Democratic due to demographic changes, Trump was a bad fit for the state. It may become a battleground state in the 2030s. But that’s a long time.

[Tekken_Guy]

Texas will be trending Dem in the future for sure. I feel that swing was the beginning of a trend. Even if Trump was just a bad fit for Texas, now that he won his image is going to affect the entire GOP in the long run. Plus minorities, millennials, and well-educated whites are building up a strong coalition that will be swinging left.

I don't think 2020 will be the year Texas flips, barring a Democratic landslide: Georgia, NC, and Arizona will probably go there first.

[Del Tachi]

Would require for Trump to be unpopular and face a significant third-party challenge from the right/center-right.

[Devils30]

Texas could vote for a Democratic candidate if Trump and the GOP stay this unpopular. That said, it will be nowhere near the tipping point until 2028-32 at the earliest, if not later.

[I’m not Stu]

It isn't hard to envision a scenario where dems break 400 EV's with a 7-8 point victory. 365 EV's in a 7 point victory is abnormally low.

Maybe this?

[I’m not Stu]

Texas could vote for a Democratic candidate if Trump and the GOP stay this unpopular. That said, it will be nowhere near the tipping point until 2028-32 at the earliest, if not later.

Trump only won TX by 9%, nearly half the margin Romney won Texas.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Texas could vote for a Democratic candidate if Trump and the GOP stay this unpopular. That said, it will be nowhere near the tipping point until 2028-32 at the earliest, if not later.

Trump only won TX by 9%, nearly half the margin Romney won Texas.

I would be absolutely terrified if Hillary only won California by 9 points. As recently as 2004, TX was much more Republican than California was Democratic.

[TheSaint250]

Won't happen then. Later though. Probably 2036

[Sumner 1868]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

As for the "swing" in 2016, let's look a little closer:

Bexar County
Obama 2008: 52.23
Obama 2012: 51.46
Clinton 2016: 54.19

Colin County
Obama 2008: 36.66
Obama 2012: 33.41
Clinton 2016: 38.91

Denton County
Obama 2008: 37.47
Obama 2012: 33.35
Clinton 2016: 37.13

Fort Bend
Obama 2008: 48.50
Obama 2012: 46.08
Clinton 2016: 51.39

So she clearly did a bit better in the overhyped suburbs...but still not very well.

[Virginiá]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

Since when? And what generation(s)/age groups? Trump's performance with young (18-29) Hispanics was about as poor as Romney.

[PoliticalShelter]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

Since when? And what generation(s)/age groups? Trump's performance with young (18-29) Hispanics was about as poor as Romney.

Indeed, the large generational gap in Hispanic heavy states like Texas and Arizona don't exactly support this. There is evidence that this is happening amongst blacks though.

[Sumner 1868]

Since when?

It's up for debate, but it's a fact in the 1960s Democrats were carrying 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. Today they hoover around two-thirds.

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I can't find the exact chart (probably due to Google-bombing since the election) but it showed that in 2012 that 70+ Hispanics were about 15% Republican, Boomers a bit more than them, Xers a bit more than Boomers, while the youngest Hispanics were about 31 percent Republican. That's still majority Democratic, but it shows a bad sign for the future. Hispanics are going to be more assimilated whether the far-right likes it or not, and when that happens they'll move onto new bogeymen.

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A bad sign itself. Shouldn't he, after everything, have done abysmally worse?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Kamala Harris in 2024.

[Sumner 1868]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

Since when? And what generation(s)/age groups? Trump's performance with young (18-29) Hispanics was about as poor as Romney.

Indeed, the large generational gap in Hispanic heavy states like Texas and Arizona don't exactly support this. There is evidence that this is happening amongst blacks though.

I couldn't age and race polling in either of those states.

[PoliticalShelter]

Since when?

It's up for debate, but it's a fact in the 1960s Democrats were carrying 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. Today they hoover around two-thirds.

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I can't find the exact chart (probably due to Google-bombing since the election) but it showed that in 2012 that 70+ Hispanics were about 15% Republican, Boomers a bit more than them, Xers a bit more than Boomers, while the youngest Hispanics were about 31 percent Republican. That's still majority Democratic, but it shows a bad sign for the future. Hispanics are going to be more assimilated whether the far-right likes it or not, and when that happens they'll move onto new bogeymen.

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A bad sign itself. Shouldn't he, after everything, have done abysmally worse?

Well according to the CNN exit poll in 2012, republicans got 23 percent with millennial Hispanics, while getting 35 percent with 65+ hispanics.

And citing the republicans performance during the 60s makes little sense considering how very little Hispanics were probably voting at the time (and the democrats abnormal performance with catholic voters during this time period as well).

In fact the decline of republican performance with Hispanics since 2004 now makes sense; its because of the emergence of younger Hispanics who dislike republicans for the same reason as a large number of their white millennial counterparts.

[Virginiá]

It's up for debate, but it's a fact in the 1960s Democrats were carrying 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. Today they hoover around two-thirds.

They've been pretty stable at their current numbers though. GOP landslide or not, Democrats have tended to oscillate between the same numbers. IIRC, Bill Clinton's win in 1996 actually netted the biggest winning margin on record (I don't have exit polls of 1964), and I don't even think it was higher than Obama's top % with Hispanics - it was just wider. Clinton's weakness with young voters in general hurt her with all races, but it didn't seem to benefit Trump that much. They defected to 3rd parties. As I understand it, Hillary also had a more unique issue with young Hispanic voters that was highlighted somewhat during the election.

My point being that recent election results have all been within the realm of normal for Democrats. The only issue I might find is with those who postulate that if whites continue trending Republican, even past, say, 65% or so, then Democrats really need to be running up the score with non-white voters even more so. Given the generational trends with white voters, I don't think the GOP will be able to pull that off. Not without converting a ton of liberal Millennials into Republicans.

CivicYouth has some states on race/age:

http://www.civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/CIRCLE_2012Election_GenderRace_ForWeb1.pdf
http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_08_exit_polls.pdf

CivicYouth is a great resource for young voter stats, but they always seem somewhat disorganized. Their 2016 report doesn't have the same degree of statistics on race, or if they do it is hidden somewhere. Here is their official report:

http://civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/CIRCLE-Full-Exit-Poll-Analysis_Final.pdf

[Technocracy Timmy]

Hispanics are going to be more assimilated whether the far-right likes it or not, and when that happens they'll move onto new bogeymen.

This isn't gonna happen as fast as people think. Younger hispanic Americans still face discrimination in many areas of life due to their skin tone and the net worth of Hispanic families are not only much closer to African Americans than Whites, but there has also been a growing gap in net worth between White families and Hispanic and AA families in the post 2008 world.

Even Asian Americans still vote strongly for the Democratic Party even though their net worth is closer to whites. There's a lot of hurdles for Hispanics to overcome to be able to assimilate. And Trump and his minions are stalling that process BIGLY.

[SoLongAtlas]

It won't probably until 2032 or 2036.

[Light Yagami]

I don't think the Republicans are in danger of losing Texas any time soon. Trump was the WORST possible fit for the state, Dems contested it somewhat, and there was supposed to be a rapid "emerging majority" which would make the state close this time. Trump still won it easily (10 points). The thing about Texas to remember

-Many of those voting for Gary Johnson were traditional Republicans (and some sanders supporters/potheads to be fair, but still) who will come home to Trump.
-I said before that many Democrats (blacks, some WWC) stayed home in the mid-west (look at drop in turnout in Iron Range for example and Northern Wisconsin) but same can be said for several Texas Suburbs.
-If you know anything about Texas Hispanics, it's that there not as D as Hispanics in other states. Many have been here for quite a while, and you have loads of protestants/evangelicals. In order for a Democrat to flip Texas (unless the Dems somehow start getting more rural whites to vote D) is for a over 40% Hispanic electorate which...wont happen for quite sometime. And even when it does, no guarantee they vote as Democrat as today.
-Texas is a giant state, and extremely hard to campaign in. Look at White, popular in Houston but no one knew who he was statewide. And outside of a the urban cities, the Democrat machine does not exist. Even getting weaker in South Texas (another thing, you saw swings to Trump in South Texas, Northern New Mexico, and Southern Colorado. Entirely Hispanic areas, reason for this is these areas are heavily working class obviously but also much more Americanized (nueovmexicos) and a similar pattern emerged there as seen throughout small town and rural America. So, the Democrats struggles with the WWC can easily be transplanted to these groups, which does throw a wrench in the whole "demographics is destiny" argument).