Nova Scotia Elections (Past)

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Was at sea during the most recent vote, but for those who're interested in the province's electoral past, here are county-based maps from 1925 to 1988.

A quick word on the period covered, and the method used:

I don't have maps indicating constituency boundaries for these years, but can still show regional & seat breakdowns as pre-1993, Nova Scotia constituencies didn't cross county lines - therefore, one can add up the votes cast within each county and show those on the map. For counties with multiple MLAs I've put small boxes showing their own margin of victory. For the counties that were dual-member (people voting twice), there's a line connecting the two boxes to indicate this.

As for the boxes themselves, I've simply arranged them in alphabetical order - putting them in the order of North, Centre, South etc. would work for most, but not for the bigger counties of Halifax & Cape Breton.

Starting in 1993, several constituencies have crossed county borders, so the method can't really be used for the most recent elections. The elections of 1925 & 1928 combined Richmond with Cape Breton counties, so I've reflected this with a dashed line indicating the county borders.

One final note on popular vote figures: the percentages given below are adjusted to reflect dual-member constituencies, which lasted through 1978.

1925 - Cons 40 (59.9%), Lib 3 (36.9%), Lab 0 (3.1%)


1928 - Cons 23 (50.3%), Lib 20 (48.2%), Lab 0 (1.4%)


1933 - Lib 22 (52.5%), Cons 8 (45.5%), CCF 0 (0.9%)


1937 - Lib 25 (53.6%), Cons 5 (45.0%), Lab 0 (1.4%)


1941 - Lib 23 (53.1%), Cons 4 (38.0%), CCF 3 (8.8%)


1945 - Lib 28 (53.0%), CCF 2 (15.1%), PC 0 (31.7%)


1949 - Lib 28 (50.8%), PC 7 (37.6%), CCF 2 (11.3%)


1953 - Lib 23 (49.4%), PC 12 (41.7%), CCF 2 (8.2%)


1956 - PC 24 (48.5%), Lib 18 (48.0%), CCF 1 (3.2%)


1960 - PC 27 (48.0%), Lib 15 (42.4%), CCF 1 (9.6%)


1963 - PC 39 (56.2%), Lib 4 (39.4%), NDP 0 (4.4%)


1967 - PC 40 (52.5%), Lib 6 (41.8%), NDP 0 (5.6%)


1970 - Lib 23 (46.0%), PC 21 (46.5%), NDP 2 (7.3%)


1974 - Lib 31 (47.3%), PC 12 (38.5%), NDP 3 (13.6%)


1978 - PC 31 (46.2%), Lib 17 (38.5%), NDP 4 (14.8%)


1981 - PC 37 (47.5%), Lib 13 (33.2%), NDP 1 (18.1%), Ind 1


1984 - PC 42 (50.6%), Lib 6 (31.3%), NDP 3 (15.9%), Lab 1 (2.0%)


1988 - PC 28 (43.5%), Lib 21 (39.6%), NDP 2 (15.8%), Ind 1

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During this period (and post-1993), these were the biggest margins of victory at each election:

1925 - William Flemming (Cons) wins Colchester by 4272 (46.8%)*
1928 - Frank Stanfield (Cons) wins Colchester by 1715 (19.5%)*
1933 - Gordon Isnor (Lib) wins Halifax North by 2042 (23.0%)
1937 - John MacIsaac (Lib) wins Antigonish 1149 (22.2%)
1941 - Harold Connolly (Lib) wins Halifax North by 2162 (34.1%)
1945 - Lauchlin Currie (Lib) wins Richmond by 2190 (53.3%)
1949 - Alex McKinnon (Lib) wins Inverness by 3914 (47.9%)*
1953 - Harold Connolly (Lib) wins Halifax North by 3667 (27.6%)
1956 - Stephen Pyke (PC) wins Cumberland Centre by 935 (20.6%)
1960 - Bob Stanfield (PC) wins Colchester by 3135 (21.1%)*
1963 - Stephen Pyke (PC) wins Cumberland Centre by 1273 (33.4%)
1967 - Stephen Pyke (PC) wins Cumberland Centre by 1415 (39.1%)
1970 - Tom McKeough (PC) wins Cape Breton North by 2870 (25.0%)
1974 - Joe Casey (Lib) wins Digby by 1935 (36.2%)
1978 - John Buchanan (PC) wins Halifax Atlantic by 4325 (41.8%)
1981 - Harry How (PC) wins Kings South by 2992 (45.0%)
1984 - Brian Young (PC) wins Cape Breton North by 4794 (52.2%)
1988 - Guy Brown (Lib) wins Cumberland Centre by 2009 (45.8%)
1993 - Paul MacEwan (Lib) wins Cape Breton Nova by 5785 (69.8%) - biggest majority since 1867
1998 - George Moody (PC) Kings West by 3391 (41.5%) - biggest majority for a third-place party
1999 - Neil LeBlanc (PC) wins Argyle by 3240 (61.5%)
2003 - Murray Scott (PC) wins Cumberland South by 3709 (54.3%)
2006 - Murray Scott (PC) wins Cumberland South by 4329 (65.4%) - biggest PC majority
2009 - Frank Corbett (NDP) wins Cape Breton Centre by 4411 (69.4%) - biggest NDP majority
2013 - Zach Churchill (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 5897 (68.1%)
2017 - Tim Houston (PC) wins Pictou East by 3974 (55.7%)

I should also mention Harold Connolly's 1936 by-election victory in Halifax North: he won by 2902 (58.3%), which exceeded any margins at a general election from 1871 to 1993.

(Asterisks mark dual-member constituencies.)

With the exception of the relatively close elections of 1970, 1988, 1998 and 2017, the MLA with the biggest majority has been on the government benches. The biggest ever win for an opposition member isn't actually listed here - it's Stephen McNeil, who won Annapolis  by 5315 (60.8%) in 2009.

One can also see the importance that voters still place on the MLAs/candidates themselves in Nova Scotia, particularly in the rural areas - Cumberland Centre, once the safest Tory seat under Stephen Pyke, became the safest Liberal one under Guy Brown, and then (once most of it had been absorbed into Cumberland South) it became a record-shattering Conservative seat under Murray Scott. Kings West was much the same - once George Moody retired, the Tories kept it for one more term (with a much-reduced majority, despite the strong Tory swing province-wide) before losing it to Leo Glavine, who's turned it into a strong Liberal seat. Joe Casey didn't run in 1984, and Digby fell to the Tories; however, he chose to run again in 1988 and won the seat back handily (the sitting Tory didn't run again). Bob Levy won Kings South for the NDP in 1984 (a first for the mainland), in spite of the huge Tory victory there in 1981 and an excellent province-wide swing to them - the long-serving incumbent had retired, and Levy himself was a superb candidate. When he was appointed to the bench in 1988, the Tories took it back in spite of the big province-wide swing against them.

Hants West is perhaps the best recent example, which this summer broke what was the longest current PC streak in a constituency (since 1978) by re-electing Chuck Porter. His saga since 2006 very much proves the point: Ron Russell had won handily in 2003, having represented the seat since 1978, but Mr. Porter just barely made it in 2006 in a close three-way fight. Three years later, in spite of the province-wide Tory collapse, he won again with a slightly increased majority. When the Tories had a minor recovery in 2013, he won by a strong margin, and in spite of his change of party won by an even bigger majority this year. It would be very unusual for this to happen anywhere else in Canada, but isn't too unusual in NS - think of Karen Casey, and of course Paul MacEwan, who was returned nine times in a row in spite of jumping from the NDP to independent to Labour to independent again and finally to the Liberals! His huge win in 1993 was a testament to his own popularity as well as the superb Liberal showing in Cape Breton that year - they got 66% of the vote there, a record for the Island since Confederation.

Such tendencies are not nearly so common in the Halifax area, where party seems to be the main determinant and the merits of the member don't count for as much (though I've always gone for the candidate and not the party) - witness the Liberal losses there two weeks ago, as well as in 1998. That's not to say that the member is as irrelevant as they can be elsewhere, but such stories as above are much rarer in Halifax.

One seat that did indicate that the voters valued the candidate was Dartmouth South - Rollie Thornhill, the former Mayor of Dartmouth and a very popular figure, took the seat for the PCs in 1974 in spite of a very good Liberal result in Metro (and throughout the province), unseating a sitting Liberal in the process. Nineteen years later, in 1993, John Savage, the new Liberal leader, ran there too; he had also been Mayor of Dartmouth, but his record hadn't been a very happy one, and I'm sure this at least partly accounts for the result there: he won, but considering the big Liberal tide throughout the province and the fact that he was leader of the party, his majority there was relatively modest: 1255, or 12.8% - 23rd of 40 Liberal seats. (I actually lived in this constituency then, although as I was only five during this election I can't really speak with much first-hand knowledge!)

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In spite of not providing maps for 1993 and since, these are the overall figures for the more recent elections:

1993 - Lib 40 (49.7%), PC 9 (31.1%), NDP 3 (17.7%)
1998 - Lib 19 (35.3%), NDP 19 (34.6%), PC 14 (29.8%)
1999 - PC 30 (39.2%), NDP 11 (30.0%), Lib 11 (29.8%)
2003 - PC 25 (36.3%), NDP 15 (31.0%), Lib 12 (31.5%)
2006 - PC 23 (39.6%), NDP 20 (34.6%), Lib 9 (23.4%)
2009 - NDP 31 (45.2%), Lib 11 (27.2%), PC 10 (24.5%)
2013 - Lib 33 (45.7%), PC 11 (26.3%), NDP 7 (26.8%)
2017 - Lib 27 (39.5%), PC 17 (35.7%), NDP 7 (21.5%)

For a long time we were the only truly three-party province in Canada, with all three big parties in with a good chance of forming government (and all of them doing so during this time). It looks like those days may be ending now, but I'd hesitate to say that for certain until the next election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding maps and results going back to 1967 available here: http://election-atlas.ca/ns/

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Here are maps for 1890-1920; I can't be quite certain of constituency figures for previous years, but may eventually be able to put those up.

1890 - Lib 28 (52.2%), Cons 10 (47.5%)


1894 - Lib 25 (52.2%), Cons 13 (47.0%)


1897 - Lib 35 (55.3%), Cons 3 (44.0%)


1901 - Lib 36 (57.2%), Cons 2 (41.0%)


1906 - Lib 32 (53.2%), Cons 5 (41.6%), Ind 1


1911 - Lib 27 (51.1%), Cons 11 (45.6%)


1916 - Lib 30 (50.6%), Cons 13 (48.7%)


1920 - Lib 29 (46.0%), Farm 7 (15.3%), Lab 4 (12.1%), Cons 3 (26.6%)

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And, as with the more recent elections, these were the safest seats from the 1890-1920 period:

1890 - William Law (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 686 (29.0%)
1894 - Brenton Dodge (Lib) wins Kings by 931 (25.9%)
1897 - George Murray (Lib) wins Victoria by 811 (46.6%)
1901 - George Murray (Lib) wins Victoria by 848 (54.5%)
1906 - Charles Bissett (Lib) wins Richmond by 742 (47.7%)
1911 - George Murray (Lib) wins Victoria by 620 (33.6%)
1916 - James Tory (Lib) wins Guysborough by 734 (24.8%)
1920 - James Tory (Lib) Guysborough by 1310 (33.7%)

The best Conservative result during this time was Benjamin LeBlanc's 1916 victory in Richmond, where he won by 470 (20.1%).

[DC Al Fine]

A liberal named Tory. That's amusing.

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Here are tentative maps for 1867-1886; as I said, I've not yet found constituency figures that quite match the overall provincial numbers found in Beck's text, but these should provide at least a decent guide for the time being:

1867 - Lib 36 (59.4%), Cons 2 (39.6%)


1871 - Lib 24 (52.4%), Cons 14 (47.1%)


1874 - Lib 24 (54.1%), Cons 14 (44.5%)


1878 - Cons 30 (51.1%), Lib 8 (45.0%)


1882 - Lib 24 (52.1%), Cons 14 (46.6%)


1886 - Lib 29 (54.8%), Cons 8 (43.8%), Ind 1


White counties with dots in the seat boxes indicate acclamations.

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And here are the best individual results for these first two decades:

1867 - Daniel McDonald (Lib) wins Antigonish by 1231 (79.4%)
1871 - William Vail (Lib) wins Digby by by 927 (64.6%)
1874 - Albert Gayton (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 902 (50.2%)
1878 - Albert Gayton (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 595 (32.0%)
1882 - John Thompson (Cons) wins Antigonish by 623 (44.5%)
1886 - William Law (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 966 (46.4%)

Daniel McDonald's 1867 margin has yet to be equalled; Antigonish also holds the longest streak of voting for the same party, as the county returned a Liberal member for 22 straight elections. The Tories took the seat (by this time just one member) in 1956, by 215 votes.

In contrast, the longest Conservative hold was Queens, won fifteen times in a row from 1953 until the NDP won it by just 55 votes.

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Not a map this time, but a table illustrating how many constituencies were won by >25% ('Safe'), 10-25% ('Moderate') and <10% ('Marginal') in each election since 1867.

What's particularly notable is how much more common really big constituency majorities have become in the last quarter-century, and (in keeping with an earlier post I made here) how the personal popularity of a candidate is, if anything, a bigger factor now than it used to be. I suppose this is partly attributable to how the three parties have grown closer on the spectrum (again, a difference from many other provinces), making specific policies and candidates matter more.

(As I've always voted for candidates rather than parties, such a trend is, to me, very pleasing!)

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(More appropriate here than in the 2021 election thread, I think.)

Looking back to 1933, when Nova Scotia switched to (mostly) single-member ridings, here is a chart illustrating how many constituencies changed hands at each election, as well as the number of incumbents defeated.

The gap between the two has widened in the last half-century, and was particularly large for this most recent election; I've written before about the value of a re-offering incumbent to a party holding a seat, and we can see a bit of that here: while the number of seats changing hands was comparable to other elections where the government changed, the number of incumbents to lose was far less.



A couple of notes: first, official redistribution estimates were made for 2009 & 2017, while I've had to rely on my own guesswork for others. (The solid vertical lines denote redistricting, while dashed lines denote changes of government.) Secondly, I've included all defeated incumbents, including by-election victors & people who switched parties, so the overlap with seats changing hands isn't a perfect one.

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Here's a graph showing turnout from 1933 through 2021; top line is the highest constituency turnout, middle is overall provincial turnout, and lowest line is the lowest constituency turnout. Numbers are colored according to the winner of the election/seat.

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A few more graphs, tables, etc.:

First, a list of all MLAs (post-1933 - see above) who got 70% or more of the vote.


Murray Scott makes the list three times; Alex McKinnon, Guy Brown & Stephen McNeil appear twice each. Tim Houston almost did as well, getting 69.7% in Pictou East last month. His 73.9% in 2017 is a record for an opposition MLA.

Second, a list of all MLAs in the same period who won by 50% or more.


As with the previous list, Murray Scott is the reigning champion, appearing here three times; Stephen McNeil is the runner-up, appearing twice. He also holds the record for an opposition MLA, winning by 60.8% in 2009.

Third, a chart (this time going back to 1867) illustrating margins by which constituencies were won (>25%, 10-25% or <10%).


Finally, another way of illustrating the same information.

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Earlier I charted the number of incumbent MLAs to lose at each election; looking only at Ministers, here's what we have from 1933 to the present:

1933 (Conservative government defeated)
John Doull (Attorney General) loses Pictou (1 of 2) by 2341
Frederick Fraser (Provincial Secretary) loses Halifax East by 678
Obed Goucher (Agriculture) loses Annapolis by 950
George Murphy (Health) loses Halifax South by 630
Albert Parsons (without Portfolio) loses Hants by 725

1941 (Liberal government re-elected)
Lauchlin Currie (Mines, Labour) loses Cape Breton East by 2170 (returned in Richmond by-election two months later, so stayed in Cabinet)

1953 (Liberal government re-elected)
Merrill Rawding (Highways/Public Works) loses Queens by 392

1956 (Liberal government defeated)
Colin Chisholm (Agriculture/Marketing, Lands/Forests) loses Antigonish by 215
Wilfred Dauphinee (Trade/Industry) loses Shelburne by 251
Arthur MacKenzie (Highways, Public Works) loses Hants East by 50 (had been MLA for Guysborough, but ran in Hants East this time)
Malcolm Patterson (Attorney General, Municipal Affairs) loses Cape Breton West by 336

1970 (PC government defeated)
I. W. Akerley (Highways) loses Dartmouth South by 91
Dick Donahoe (Attorney General, Public Health) loses Halifax Cornwallis by 1432
Percy Gaum (Mines) loses Cape Breton Nova by 61
Donald MacLeod (without Portfolio) loses Pictou Centre by 434

1974 (Liberal government re-elected)
Scott MacNutt (Public Health, Labour) loses Dartmouth South by 620

1978 (Liberal government defeated)
Glen Bagnell (Municipal Affairs) loses Dartmouth North by 1634
Garnet Brown (Recreation) loses Halifax Eastern Shore by 1387
Mike DeLory (Tourism) loses Lunenburg West by 1116
Glenn Ells (Environment) loses Kings North by 461
Jack Hawkins (Agriculture/Marketing) loses Hants East by 741
George Mitchell (Attorney General, Education) loses Halifax Cornwallis by 1342
Peter Nicholson (Deputy Premier, Finance) loses Annapolis West by 361
Dan Reid (Fisheries) loses Pictou West by 153

1988 (PC government re-elected)
Laird Stirling (Municipal Affairs) loses Dartmouth North by 121

1993 (PC government defeated)
Marie Dechman (Housing/Consumer Affairs) loses Lunenburg West by 3366
Debi Forsyth-Smith (Community Services) loses Timberlea – Prospect by 726 (came third) (appointed to Cabinet as a candidate rather than an incumbent MLA)
Gwen Haliburton (Status of Women) loses Dartmouth East by 2483 (also not an incumbent)
Greg Kerr (Tourism/Culture) loses Annapolis West by 3634
Guy LeBlanc (Education) loses Clare by 607
Neil LeBlanc (Supply/Services) loses Argyle by 458
Leroy Legere (Fisheries) loses Yarmouth by 2059
Chuck MacNeil (Finance) loses Guysborough – Port Hawkesbury by 2253
Joel Matheson (Justice) loses Halifax Bedford Basin by 406
Tom McInnis (Deputy Premier, Labour) loses Eastern Shore by 237
Brian Young (Municipal Affairs) loses Cape Breton North by 1548

1998 (Liberal government re-elected)
Wayne Adams (Environment) loses Preston by 229
Jim Barkhouse (Fisheries/Aquaculture) loses Chester – St. Margaret's by 103
Bruce Holland (Technology/Science, Sport/Recreation) loses Timberlea – Prospect by 1454
Alan Mitchell (Justice) loses Dartmouth – Cole Harbour by 731
Gerry O'Malley (Labour) loses Halifax Needham by 2331
Allister Surette (Human Resources, Acadian Affairs) loses Argyle by 1137

1999 (Liberal government defeated)
Keith Colwell (Fisheries/Aquaculture) loses Eastern Shore by 942
Robbie Harrison (Justice, Technology/Science) loses Kings South by 677
Clifford Huskilson (Transportation/Public Works) loses Shelburne by 1
Ray White (Housing/Municipal Affairs) loses Guysborough – Port Hawkesbury by 134

2003 (PC government re-elected)
Gordon Balser (Agriculture/Fisheries) loses Digby – Annapolis by 327
Tim Olive (Natural Resources) loses Dartmouth South – Portland Valley by 1031
Jane Purves (Health) loses Halifax Citadel by 576 (came third)

2006 (PC government re-elected)
Kerry Morash (Economic Development) loses Queens by 55

2009 (PC government defeated)
Barry Barnet (Energy, African Nova Scotian Affairs) loses Hammonds Plains – Upper Sackville by 2597 (came third)
Carolyn Bolivar-Getson (Natural Resources) loses Lunenburg West by 555
Ronnie Chisholm (Fisheries/Aquaculture) loses Guysborough – Sheet Harbour by 1871
Bill Dooks (Tourism/Culture/Heritage) loses Eastern Shore by 1071
Pat Dunn (Health Promotion/Protection) loses Pictou Centre by 131
Len Goucher (Seniors, Public Service) loses Bedford – Birch Cove by 2593 (came third)
David Morse (Environment) loses Kings South by 1279
Mark Parent (Agriculture, Labour/Workforce Development) loses Kings North by 456
Judy Streatch (Education) loses Chester – St. Margaret's by 2073

2013 (NDP government defeated)
Darrell Dexter (Premier) loses Cole Harbour – Portland Valley by 21
Ramona Jennex (Education) loses Kings South by 367
Ross Landry (Justice, Provincial Secretary) loses Pictou Centre by 1774
John MacDonell (Agriculture, Municipal Relations) loses Hants East by 1100
Charlie Parker (Natural Resources, Energy) loses Pictou West by 438
Leonard Preyra (Communities/Culture/Heritage) loses Halifax Citadel – Sable Island by 1032
Moe Smith (Transportation/Infrastructure Renewal) loses Antigonish by 1558 (came third)
(There were also nine Ministerial Assistants - similar to Parliamentary Secretaries - who lost)

2017 (Liberal government re-elected)
Joanne Bernard (Community Services) loses Dartmouth North by 329
Michel Samson (Energy, House Leader) loses Cape Breton – Richmond by 21

2021 (Liberal government defeated)
Randy Delorey (Justice, Provincial Secretary) loses Antigonish by 1710
Lloyd Hines (Transportation) loses Guysborough – Tracadie by 1710
Labi Kousoulis (Finance, Trade) loses Halifax Citadel – Sable Island by 441
Suzanne Lohnes-Croft (Communities/Culture/Heritage) loses Lunenburg by 629

A curious contrast between 2017 & 2021 - in the former, most of the Liberals who lost were backbenchers, while in the latter they were mostly Ministers.

The poorest personal result for a Minister since 1933 is either Len Goucher in 2009 (who got only 20.8% of the vote) or Lloyd Hines in 2021 (who lost by 33.0%).

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Here's the re-election rate for Ministers at each election from 1933 through 2021.



Last election to lose no Ministers: 1984 (PCs returned with an increased majority)

Last election where the Government gained seats but lost Ministers: 1974

Last election where the Government lost seats but no Ministers: 1967

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And here are party leaders who didn't win in their own constituencies during that same time:

1937 - Gordon Harrington (Cons) loses Cape Breton South by 452 (former Premier)
1941 - Leonard Fraser (Cons) loses Cumberland by 156
1945 - Leonard Fraser (PC) loses Queens by 341 (not an incumbent)
1945 - Donald MacDonald (CCF) loses Cape Breton South by 330
1960 - Henry Hicks (Lib) loses Annapolis East by 8 (former Premier)
1963 - Earl Urquhart (Lib) loses Richmond by 83
1967 - James Aitchison (NDP) loses Cape Breton East by 2046 (not an incumbent)
1984 - Sandy Cameron (Lib) loses Guysborough by 390
2001 - Helen MacDonald (NDP) loses Cape Breton North by 702 (by-election) (came third)
2006 - Francis MacKenzie (Lib) loses Bedford by 804 (not an incumbent)
2013 - Darrell Dexter (NDP) loses Cole Harbour - Portland Valley by 21 (sitting Premier)

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Keeping to the single-member constituency period, the first times a party broke 60% in a riding - and each time their record was broken.

Liberal
1933 - Gordon Isnor wins Halifax North with 61.5%
1936 - Harold Connolly wins Halifax North with 79.1% (by-election)
1993 - Paul MacEwan wins Cape Breton Nova with 82.2%
2013 - Zach Churchill wins Yarmouth with 82.3%

Cons/PC
1956 - Stephen Pyke wins Cumberland Centre with 60.3%
1963 - Stephen Pyke wins Cumberland Centre with 66.7%
1967 - Stephen Pyke wins Cumberland Centre with 67.3%
1984 - Brian Young wins Cape Breton North with 70.0%
1999 - Neil LeBlanc wins Argyle with 77.0%
2021 - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle with 82.4%

CCF/NDP
1941 - D. N. Brodie wins Cape Breton East with 60.6%
1998 - Frank Corbett wins Cape Breton Centre with 64.6%
2009 - Frank Corbett wins Cape Breton Centre with 80.1%

Overall
1933 - Gordon Isnor wins Halifax North with 61.5%
1936 - Harold Connolly wins Halifax North with 79.1% (by-election)
1993 - Paul MacEwan wins Cape Breton Nova with 82.2%
2013 - Zach Churchill wins Yarmouth with 82.3%
2021 - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle with 82.4%

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Looking at opposition MLAs only, here's the first time a candidate broke 60%, followed by each time a record was broken.

1941 - D. N. Brodie (CCF) wins Cape Breton East with 60.6%
1988 - Guy Brown (Lib) wins Cumberland Centre with 71.1%
2009 - Stephen McNeil (Lib) wins Annapolis with 73.7%
2017 - Tim Houston (PC) wins Pictou East with 73.9%


As for the biggest majority for an opposition member, here's the first time one surpassed 20%, followed by each time a record was topped.

1941 - D. N. Brodie (CCF) wins Cape Breton East by 2170 (21.1%)
1945 - Russell Cunningham (CCF) wins Cape Breton East by 2613 (28.9%)
1978 - Vince MacLean (Lib) wins Cape Breton South by 4280 (36.4%)
1988 - Guy Brown (Lib) wins Cumberland Centre by 2009 (45.8%)
2009 - Stephen McNeil (Lib) wins Annapolis by 5315 (60.8%)


Finally, let's look at personal results for Premiers, again starting with a 20% margin & building from there.

1945 - Angus L. Macdonald (Lib) wins Halifax South by 3114 (36.8%)
1978 - John Buchanan (PC) wins Halifax Atlantic by 4325 (41.8%)
1999 - John Hamm (PC) wins Pictou Centre by 3629 (42.7%)
2006 - Rodney MacDonald (PC) wins Inverness by 5777 (55.0%)
2013 - Stephen McNeil (Lib) wins Annapolis by 6320 (62.2%)

From a purely numerical perspective, MacDonald's 5777-vote majority is an all-time Tory record for a single-member riding, and McNeil's 6320-vote margin is the biggest ever for a Liberal.

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Looking at the heaviest personal defeats since 1933, the following MLAs lost by more than 20%:

1941
Lauchlin Currie (Lib) loses Cape Breton East by 2170 (21.1%)

1963
Michael MacDonald (NDP) loses Cape Breton Centre by 1502 (22.0%)

1974
John Burke (PC) loses Cape Breton South by 2766 (21.7%)
Walton Cook (Ind) loses Lunenburg Centre by 2548 (25.7%) (came third) (originally elected as a Liberal)
Fisher Hudson (PC) loses Victoria by 1031 (23.8%)
George Snow (PC) loses Yarmouth (1 of 2) by 2768 (22.5%)

1993
Greg Kerr (PC) loses Annapolis by 3634 (32.5%) (ran against Liberal incumbent Earle Rayfuse after redistribution combined their ridings)
Chuck MacNeil (PC) loses Guysborough - Port Hawkesbury by 2253 (23.2%)
Marie Dechman (PC) loses Lunenburg West by 3366 (32.5%)
Leroy Legere (PC) loses Yarmouth by 2059 (21.0%)

1998
Allister Surette (Lib) loses Argyle by 1137 (20.1%)
Gerry O'Malley (Lib) loses Halifax Needham by 2331 (28.2%)

2003
Brian Boudreau (Ind) loses Victoria - The Lakes by 1534 (24.5%) (came fourth) (originally elected as a Liberal)

2009
Len Goucher (PC) loses Bedford - Birch Cove by 2593 (23.7%) (came third)
Judy Streatch (PC) loses Chester - St. Margaret's by 2073 (20.6%)
Ronnie Chisholm (PC) loses Guysborough - Sheet Harbour by 1871 (26.7%)
Barry Barnet (PC) loses Hammonds Plains - Upper Sackville by 2597 (27.0%) (came third)

2013
Sid Prest (NDP) loses Eastern Shore by 1848 (26.0%)
Ross Landry (NDP) loses Pictou Centre by 1774 (22.4%)

2017
Pam Eyking (Lib) loses Victoria - The Lakes by 2404 (32.7%)

2021
Lloyd Hines (Lib) loses Guysborough - Tracadie by 1710 (33.0%)
Alana Paon (Ind) loses Richmond by 2377 (43.6%) (came third) (originally elected as a PC)


The poorest result for an incumbent comes from last month's vote, as Alana Paon placed more than forty points behind her Tory successor. If one looks only at people running under their original party labels, then the widest margin of defeat is that of Lloyd Hines (still from 2021), although there are other losses that come close - three other MLAs lost by more than thirty points (Greg Kerr & Marie Dechman in 1993 and Pam Eyking in 2017).

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Looking at losing incumbents from a different angle, here are ones who got under 30% of the vote (obviously there's some overlap with the other list):

1956
Russell Cunningham (CCF) loses Cape Breton East with 28.0% (came third)

1974
John Burke (PC) loses Cape Breton South with 29.2%
Walton Cook (Ind) loses Lunenburg Centre with 15.5% (came third) (originally elected as a Liberal)

1981
Len Arsenault (NDP) loses Cape Breton North with 24.0% (came third)
Walter Fitzgerald (Lib) loses Halifax Chebucto with 24.8% (came third)

1984
Malcolm MacKay (PC) loses Sackville with 26.5% (came third)

1993
Derrick Kimball (Ind) loses Kings South with 22.5% (came third) (originally elected as a PC) (a four-cornered contest that saw even the winner get under 30%)
Marie Dechman (PC) loses Lunenburg West with 28.1%

1998
Alfie MacLeod (PC) loses Cape Breton West with 27.4% (came third) (by-election gain)
Wayne Fraser (Lib) loses Pictou East with 26.5% (came third) (by-election gain)
Eleanor Norrie (Lib) loses Truro - Bible Hill with 27.9% (came third)
Richie Hubbard (Lib) loses Yarmouth with 25.2% (came third)

2003
Brian Boudreau (Ind) loses Victoria - The Lakes with 12.0% (came fourth) (originally elected as a Liberal)

2009
Len Goucher (PC) loses Bedford - Birch Cove with 20.8% (came third)
Judy Streatch (PC) loses Chester - St. Margaret's with 27.5%
Ernie Fage (Ind) loses Cumberland North with 27.4% (originally elected as a PC)
Ronnie Chisholm (PC) loses Guysborough - Sheet Harbour with 25.0%
Barry Barnet (PC) loses Hammonds Plains - Upper Sackville with 23.0% (came third)
David Morse (PC) loses Kings South with 28.1%

2013
Moe Smith (NDP) loses Antigonish with 25.6% (came third) (by-election gain)
Gary Burrill (NDP) loses Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley with 29.3%
Brian Skabar (NDP) loses Cumberland North with 26.6% (came third)
Sid Prest (NDP) loses Eastern Shore with 27.0%
Ross Landry (NDP) loses Pictou Centre with 29.9%
Percy Paris (NDP) loses Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank with 25.2% (came third)

2017
Pam Eyking (Lib) loses Victoria - The Lakes with 26.8%

2021
Alana Paon (Ind) loses Richmond with 7.3% (came third) (originally elected as a PC)

Alana Paon once again gets the prize for the worst showing, although if one looks only at people running under their original party labels that distinction goes to Len Goucher in 2009.

[DistingFlyer]

Given the fate of the outgoing Speaker at the last election, here's how incumbent Speakers have fared at general elections:

1933 - Daniel McKenzie (Cons) doesn't re-offer in Cumberland
1937 - Lindsay Gardner (Lib) wins Yarmouth by 1872 (20.2%)
1941 - Gordon Romkey (Lib) wins Lunenburg (1 of 2) by 1687 (15.6%)
1945 - Gordon Romkey (Lib) wins Lunenburg (1 of 2) by 985 (7.8%)
1949 - Gordon Romkey (Lib) wins Lunenburg (1 of 2) by 1007 (6.6%)
1953 - Gordon Romkey (Lib) loses Lunenburg (1 of 2) by 1801 (11.2%)
1956 - John Smith MacIvor (Lib) loses Cape Breton South by 651 (6.1%)
1960 - Ken Jones (PC) wins Queens by 1154 (18.1%)
1963 - Harvey Veniot (PC) wins Pictou West by 961 (19.1%)
1967 - Harvey Veniot (PC) wins Pictou West by 1463 (30.4%)
1970 - Paddy Fitzgerald (PC) loses Halifax Cobequid by 1026 (8.1%)
1974 - James Connolly (Lib) doesn't re-offer in Halifax Chebucto
1978 - George Doucet (Lib) loses Sackville by 1693 (16.4%)
1981 - Art Donahoe (PC) wins Halifax Citadel by 1451 (15.6%)
1984 - Art Donahoe (PC) wins Halifax Citadel by 788 (8.7%)
1988 - Art Donahoe (PC) wins Halifax Citadel by 226 (2.4%)
1993 - Ron Russell (PC) wins Hants West by 46 (0.4%)
1998 - Gerry Fogarty (Lib) wins Halifax Bedford Basin by 433 (4.1%)
1999 - Ron Russell (PC) wins Hants West by 3261 (36.0%)
2003 - Murray Scott (PC) wins Cumberland South by 3709 (54.3%)
2006 - Cecil Clarke (PC) wins Cape Breton North by 2115 (24.9%)
2009 - Alfie MacLeod (PC) wins Cape Breton West by 1165 (12.8%)
2013 - Gordie Gosse (NDP) wins Sydney - Whitney Pier by 550 (5.3%)
2017 - Kevin Murphy (Lib) wins Eastern Shore by 503 (7.5%)
2021 - Kevin Murphy (Lib) loses Eastern Shore by 1095 (11.8%)

Over the nine elections that have seen a change of government, four saw the defeat of the Speaker (1956, 1970, 1978 & 2021) while one (1933) saw him not run again. One other (1999) had an opposition MLA in the Speaker's chair.

Only one election (1953) saw the government returned but the Speaker not.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at the value of incumbents, let's compare the swings in open vs. re-offering ridings from the last few elections:


2009 - PC incumbents re-offering (19)
PC - 50.4% to 39.2% (-11%), 9 seats lost
NDP - 25.3% to 36.4% (+11%), 8 seats gained
Lib - 22.2% to 22.1% (-0%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 11.1% PC-NDP

2009 - Open PC seats (4)*
PC - 55.6% to 26.3% (-29%), 4 seats lost
NDP - 25.6% to 46.1% (+20%), 4 seats gained
Lib - 16.3% to 17.6% (+1%)
Swing - 24.9% PC-NDP
*including Cumberland North, where the incumbent was running as an Independent


2013 - NDP incumbents re-offering (24)*
NDP - 53.9% to 35.4% (-19%), 17 seats lost
PC - 22.6% to 26.5% (+4%), 5 seats gained
Lib - 19.8% to 37.0% (+17%), 12 seats gained
Swing - 17.8% NDP-Lib
*not including Antigonish, which was gained at a by-election

2013 - Open NDP seats (9)
NDP - 55.5% to 29.6% (-26%), 9 seats lost
Lib - 26.1% to 46.8% (+21%), 8 seats gained
PC - 15.2% to 22.2% (+7%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 23.3% NDP-Lib


2017 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (30)*
Lib - 51.3% to 44.9% (-6%), 6 seats lost
NDP - 25.9% to 20.0% (-6%), 1 seat gained
PC - 21.5% to 31.3% (+10%), 5 seats gained
Swing - 8.1% Lib-PC
*not including Cape Breton Centre & Sydney - Whitney Pier, which were gained at by-elections

2017 - Open Liberal seats (3)
Lib - 59.3% to 40.8% (-18%), 2 seats lost
NDP - 24.4% to 24.4% (-0%), 1 seat gained
PC - 15.6% to 27.3% (+12%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 15.1% Lib-PC


2021 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (15)
Lib - 45.8% to 43.8% (-2%), 5 seats lost
PC - 28.6% to 32.4% (+4%), 4 seats gained
NDP - 21.9% to 21.4% (-0%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 2.9% Lib-PC

2021 - Open Liberal seats (15)
Lib - 48.2% to 40.5% (-8%), 9 seats lost
PC - 29.9% to 39.0% (+9%), 9 seats gained
NDP - 18.5% to 17.4% (-1%)
Swing - 8.4% Lib-PC


Even with relatively small sample sizes for open seats in 2009 & 2017, the pattern is still a pretty clear one: appreciably larger swings in open seats at each election examined. The gap between open seats & re-offering incumbents appears to be the smallest for 2013, which I imagine can be explained by the fact that the NDP were defending so many ridings in the Metro area, where incumbents are of less value than elsewhere.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking back a little further, here are figures from 1988, 1998, 1999 & 2006 (I've not seen estimates of the effects of boundary changes for 1993 & 2003, so have skipped those):


1988 - PC incumbents re-offering (32)*
PC - 55.1% to 48.2% (-7%), 8 seats lost
Lib - 29.4% to 36.9% (+7%), 8 seats gained
NDP - 15.0% to 14.8% (-0%)
Swing - 7.2% PC-Lib
*not including Inverness South, where the incumbent was running as an Independent

1988 - Open PC seats (10)
PC - 51.9% to 37.4% (-14%), 7 seats lost
Lib - 31.4% to 44.3% (+13%), 7 seats gained
NDP - 12.7% to 15.9% (+3%)
Swing - 13.7% PC-Lib


1998 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (23)*
Lib - 49.4% to 38.5% (-11%), 10 seats lost
PC - 30.6% to 27.8% (-3%), 4 seats gained
NDP - 17.4% to 33.5% (+16%), 6 seats gained
Swing - 13.5% Lib-NDP
*not including Halifax Citadel or Pictou East, which were gained at by-elections

1998 - Open Liberal seats (17)
Lib - 58.4% to 37.3% (-21%), 11 seats lost
PC - 26.1% to 26.4% (+0%), 3 seats gained
NDP - 14.8% to 35.7% (+21%), 8 seats gained
Swing - 21.0% Lib-NDP


1999 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (15)
Lib - 45.4% to 44.0% (-1%), 6 seats lost
NDP - 28.6% to 24.6% (-4%)
PC - 25.3% to 30.6% (+5%), 6 seats gained
Swing - 3.4% Lib-PC

1999 - Open Liberal seats (4)
Lib - 38.4% to 26.9% (-12%), 4 seats lost
PC - 30.7% to 47.3% (+16%), 4 seats gained
NDP - 30.3% to 24.6% (-6%)
Swing - 14.1% Lib-PC


2006 - PC incumbents re-offering (18)*
PC - 47.8% to 52.7% (+5%), 2 seats lost
Lib - 27.1% to 16.8% (-10%)
NDP - 24.1% to 28.5% (+4%), 2 seats gained
Swing - 0.2% NDP-PC
*not including Chester - St. Margaret's, whose incumbent came in at a by-election

2006 - Open PC seats (7)
PC - 45.4% to 41.9% (-4%), 2 seats lost
Lib - 29.5% to 26.9% (-3%)
NDP - 24.2% to 28.9% (+5%), 2 seats gained
Swing - 4.2% PC-NDP

[DistingFlyer]

In 1981 & 1984 the Tory government increased its majority - therefore, let's look not only at the Tory ridings but Liberal ones for those elections:


1981 - PC incumbents re-offering (31)*
PC - 53.5% to 52.3% (-1%), 2 seats lost
Lib - 34.3% to 28.1% (-6%), 2 seats gained
NDP - 11.4% to 19.4% (+8%)
Swing - 2.5% Lib-PC
*not including Cape Breton East, Halifax Needham & Victoria, which were gained at by-elections

1981 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (13)*
Lib - 50.8% to 45.9% (-5%), 3 seats lost
PC - 36.9% to 40.1% (+3%), 2 seats gained
NDP - 12.3% to 14.0% (+2%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 4.0% Lib-PC
*not including Richmond, whose incumbent came in at a by-election

1981 - Open Liberal seats (4)
Lib - 48.7% to 37.7% (-11%), 3 seats lost
PC - 39.6% to 42.3% (+3%), 3 seats gained
NDP - 11.7% to 19.4% (+8%)
Swing - 6.9% Lib-PC


1984 - PC incumbents re-offering (32)*
PC - 50.7% to 53.5% (+3%), 2 seats lost
Lib - 29.1% to 27.6% (-2%), 1 seat gained
NDP - 19.7% to 17.2% (-2%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 2.2% Lib-PC
*not including Kings South & Lunenburg Centre, whose incumbents came in at by-elections, or Cape Breton The Lakes, which was gained at a by-election

1984 - Open PC seats (5)
PC - 54.2% to 48.0% (-6%), 2 seats lost
Lib - 26.8% to 27.6% (+1%), 1 seat gained
NDP - 18.9% to 24.0% (+5%), 1 seat gained
Swing - 3.5% PC-Lib

1984 - Liberal incumbents re-offering (10)
Lib - 47.7% to 45.8% (-2%), 6 seats lost
PC - 39.6% to 46.2% (+7%), 6 seats gained
NDP - 12.7% to 7.2% (-5%)
Swing - 4.2% Lib-PC

1984 - Open Liberal seats (3)
Lib - 47.0% to 37.0% (-10%), 3 seats lost
PC - 41.0% to 54.3% (+13%), 3 seats gained
NDP - 12.1% to 7.9% (-4%)
Swing - 11.6% Lib-PC


The pattern remains consistent here too, but I'd like to draw your attention to a number of individual 1984 races:
Although the Tories got an increased majority and increased vote share provincewide, they lost four ridings due to issues with the local candidates: Dick Weldon (Dartmouth East) had been through the courts on charges in 1982, and Malcolm MacKay (Sackville) was facing an expenses scandal, while the constituency parties in Kings South & Lunenburg East were divided over the adoption of new candidates - a similar problem that saw the loss of Northside - Westmount this year.
Note as well that in the 1988 election, in spite of a strong provincewide swing against the Tories, they improved their position in all four of those ridings, winning back Kings South (where the NDP incumbent didn't run again) and reducing the opposition majorities in the rest.

If we look at the total vote in just those four ridings from 1981 to 1984 to 1988, this is what we see:

PC - 49.2% to 33.8% to 37.6% (-15%, then +4%)
Lib - 27.3% to 32.5% to 35.6% (+5%, then +3%)
NDP - 23.5% to 33.3% to 26.7% (+10%, then -7%)

[DistingFlyer]

Looking at how regions have differed from the provincial average, here are some graphs covering 1941 (when the CCF elected its first MLAs at a general election) through 2021:

First, Metro vs. the province:


Here's Cape Breton:


Here's the mainland:


And here's the mainland broken into two; first, East (Guysborough, Antigonish, Pictou, Colchester, Cumberland & rural Halifax):


And the Western mainland (Hants, Kings, Annapolis, Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Queens & Lunenburg):