AZ-PPP: Ducey loses to Garcia, beats Farley

[SWE]

Source

Garcia: 44
Ducey: 42

Farley: 40
Ducey: 42

Granted, it's a Garcia internal, but still, unexpected. I haven't been following Arizona politics or Ducey's tenure to any real degree, any idea why he's so unpopular?

[Holmes]

Interesting.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Wasn't expecting this race to be that competitive. I was even tempted to rate this Safe R, taking this poll into account, Likely R

[Pollster]

Been a long time since I've worked in Arizona, but from what I understand Ducey has spent his tenure governing from the far right in a state that is quickly moving towards the center, especially on the issue of education which I assume is what makes Garcia an appealing candidate.

[KingSweden]

I'd be curious if Stanton takes another look at this or taking on Flake

[This account no longer in use.]

Damn, this might be an even bigger Dem wave than expected.

[Webnicz]

Ducey (or Douchey)  is only considered safe because of his ties to dark money, while Flake is likely still more vulnerable, it is likely a non serious candidate will run against Flake as a dem, and the AZ democratic party will put all efforts into the Ducey fight

This could happen because Ducey aggrevates the democratic base far more due to his  voucher positions

I think the local parties will be focusing on this local race more because of how serious our education catastrophe has gotten, local issues need to be addressed.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Whoa if this is even kinda true. I only had Senate, SoS, and Superintendent as competitive, but if the Governor's race is too, then Arizona could be in for a big shakeup in 2018.

It could be the Democratic version of Wisconsin or Iowa, which both took sharp turns to the right in 2010.

It remains to be seen if Democrats will put up a serious challenger to Flake, and I don't think they'll pass up on the opportunity. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema seems to be waiting for a primary challenger to damage or defeat Flake.

[Cactus Jack]

Not surprising. He's sitting on a 35% approval rating during a Trump midterm in a state that's been steadily shifting to the left since about 2010. He's not exactly in a particularly good standing with much of anyone.

I wager that Stanton and Farley are the Democrats' best options here. I see Garcia's lack of a solid political resume working against him.

[Young Conservative]

Not surprising. He's sitting on a 35% approval rating during a Trump midterm in a state that's been steadily shifting to the left since about 2010. He's not exactly in a particularly good standing with much of anyone.

I wager that Stanton and Farley are the Democrats' best options here. I see Garcia's lack of a solid political resume working against him.

What source is saying 35%? Both morning consult and Arizona Republic have him with net positive rating.

https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings-april-2017/

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2016/09/07/poll-gov-doug-ducey-popular-among-arizona-republicans-but-still-mystery-many/89778796/

[SWE]

Not surprising. He's sitting on a 35% approval rating during a Trump midterm in a state that's been steadily shifting to the left since about 2010. He's not exactly in a particularly good standing with much of anyone.

I wager that Stanton and Farley are the Democrats' best options here. I see Garcia's lack of a solid political resume working against him.

What source is saying 35%?

The one this thread is about?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news.

[Rjjr77]

Internal poll that doesn't follow what other polls are saying? Throw it in the trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have any concrete polls out there but this. But, Ducey is clearly not in good shape here.

[Rjjr77]

We don't have any concrete polls out there but this. But, Ducey is clearly not in good shape here.

His disapproval rating is drastically lower in this poll than in other public polls. Its internal garbage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have any concrete polls out there but this. But, Ducey is clearly not in good shape here.

His disapproval rating is drastically lower in this poll than in other public polls. Its internal garbage

Granted, but if an incumbant is polling below 50%, like Rauner and Walker(we'll see the nxt poll has him at), then they are in trouble

[Rjjr77]

We don't have any concrete polls out there but this. But, Ducey is clearly not in good shape here.

His disapproval rating is drastically lower in this poll than in other public polls. Its internal garbage

Granted, but if an incumbant is polling below 50%, like Rauner and Walker(we'll see the nxt poll has him at), then they are in trouble

incumbent under 50% doesnt mean trouble, incumbent under 45% does.

[Badger]

Guys. guys! It's an internal for Pete's sake. The Arizona Republic poll puts him at 44% favorability rating. Perhaps most telling there is, wow he has about 4% strongly favored in his performance, he has least 21% of Democrats at least somewhat favorably supporting his performance. That's a crucial number Democrats have to reduce markedly to beat him. Not to mention he generally is doing well among independents comma though clearly could do better

[Young Conservative]

He isn't u popular. He's among the most popular GOP governors.

[Devout Centrist]

Ducey is still popular, but at the same time he could fall in an upset. Lean/Likely R, right now.