Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

[Suburbia]

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders wins the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination in a grueling race against New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond. He faces off against President Donald Trump, who wins GOP renomination and runs for reelection. Who wins? Discuss with maps.

[MM876]

I don't see Trump's approvals getting significantly better over the next three years, he might improve but I doubt his disapproval falls below 50%. With that in mind, and Bernie being the most popular politician in the country, I really can't see anything but a landslide.

Sanders' lower limit:

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 296 EVs, 50.5% PV
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence: 242 EVs, 48.5% PV

Sanders' upper limit:

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 407 EVs, 54.5% PV
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence: 131 EVs, 42.3% PV

I don't think Sanders can do much better than this barring a third party run by Kasich or McMullin that opens up the South for some Democratic wins.

Here's one with a third party run:

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 445 EVs, 54.5% PV
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence: 83 EVs, 39% PV
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Sen. Ben Sasse: 10 EVs, 4% PV

I'm not sure I see a floor in these circumstances where Sanders doesn't win, he's in a good position and if he's won the primary he's probably put to bed concerns about his health.

I've thought hard about it, Tulsi is truly a great VP choice for Bernie regardless of what you personally think of her. He's old, she's young; he's a socialist, she's a blue dog in many respects; he's whiter than Vermont snow, she's ethnically ambiguous; but they're both relatively dovish, economically populist, and anti-establishment.

Overall, the consistent assumptions I make:
Donald Trump is unpopular, >50% disapprovals
Bernie doesn't get McGovern'ed by the Dem establishment (i.e. cut from the herd and left to die)
Bernie's health is good

In the worst case scenarios, Bernie gets ostracized by conservative Dems, and his gains in the Rust Belt are at the expense of gains in the Sun Belt and the South, which loses even relatively safe states like Virginia as well as preventing the possibility of gaining Georgia or North Carolina.

Edit: Actually this would probably be a more realistic floor:

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 265 EVs, 49.5% PV
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence: 273 EVs, 48.0% PV

[Lord Admirale]

I don't see Trump's approvals getting significantly better over the next three years, he might improve but I doubt his disapproval falls below 50%. With that in mind, and Bernie being the most popular politician in the country, I really can't see anything but a landslide.

Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 407 EVs, 54.5% PV
Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Mike Pence: 131 EVs, 42.3% PV

Keep in mind, this is a bit of an upper limit. I don't think Sanders can do much better than this barring a third party run by Kasich or McMullin that opens up the South for some Democratic wins. However I also can't imagine a floor in these circumstances where Sanders doesn't win, he's in a good position and if he's won the primary he's probably put to bed concerns about his health.

I've thought hard about it, Tulsi is truly a great VP choice for Bernie regardless of what you personally think of her. He's old, she's young; he's a socialist, she's a blue dog in many respects; he's whiter than Vermont snow, she's ethnically ambiguous; but they're both relatively dovish, economically populist, and anti-establishment.

lol okay

President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 343 EV
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - 195 EV

Sanders really doesn't resonate anywhere outside of the far left. His message is poorly received in the suburbs, making New Jersey, Virginia, and Connecticut a tough climb for the Democrats. I actually could see Trump taking much more than what I put as Sanders could easily be regarded as George McGovern 2.0.

Can't wait for the mass anger.

[MM876]

Sanders really doesn't resonate anywhere outside of the far left.

I don't think this is entirely accurate. Especially in an election against Trump, where some people who see it as a matter of the lesser of two evils will decide that an honest socialist is better than a deceptive conservative. During the primary Sanders took WV, and I think this is a template for how he could (in an ideal environment) chip off some traditionally conservative states with economic populism, or at least keep hold on the Rust Belt.

Nonetheless, New Jersey is safe Dem; turnout might be deflated, but the amount of crossover vote and the severe turnout decrease required to actually flip it would only happen if Sanders was revealed to be a Russian sleeper agent and the bastard son of Josef Stalin.

[Lord Admirale]

Sanders really doesn't resonate anywhere outside of the far left.

I don't think this is entirely accurate. Especially in an election against Trump, where some people who see it as a matter of the lesser of two evils will decide that an honest socialist is better than a deceptive conservative. During the primary Sanders took WV, and I think this is a template for how he could (in an ideal environment) chip off some traditionally conservative states with economic populism, or at least keep hold on the Rust Belt.

Nonetheless, New Jersey is safe Dem; turnout might be deflated, but the amount of crossover vote and the severe turnout decrease required to actually flip it would only happen if Sanders was revealed to be a Russian sleeper agent and the bastard son of Josef Stalin.

Sanders took WV because Hillary said "we're gonna put a lot of coal companies and coal miners out of business!" Sanders was also the only candidate by the time WV's primary was held. If Jim Webb, or even Chafee and O'Malley were still in the race, one of them could've taken WV in the Dem primary.

I really don't buy Trump being an agent of Putin for a second. He literally bombed Russia's main ally in the Middle East and it caused huge uproar in the states. NJ's turnout would be low, but lots of Democrats in voter-rich Bergen and Passaic Counties would stay home, not to mention the western part of the state is steadfast GOP.

Also, Sanders isn't honest. He claims everything will be free, he'll start a revolution, and America will be great, but he doesn't tell you about the part with more government, more control, more taxes, and more bureaucracy.

[cvparty]

Bernie would win if he were the Democratic candidate but we'd likely see a temporary reversal of trends - he wouldn't win Texas and would have trouble winning states like Georgia

[DPKdebator]

Sanders really doesn't resonate anywhere outside of the far left.

I don't think this is entirely accurate. Especially in an election against Trump, where some people who see it as a matter of the lesser of two evils will decide that an honest socialist is better than a deceptive conservative. During the primary Sanders took WV, and I think this is a template for how he could (in an ideal environment) chip off some traditionally conservative states with economic populism, or at least keep hold on the Rust Belt.

Nonetheless, New Jersey is safe Dem; turnout might be deflated, but the amount of crossover vote and the severe turnout decrease required to actually flip it would only happen if Sanders was revealed to be a Russian sleeper agent and the bastard son of Josef Stalin.

Sanders took WV because Hillary said "we're gonna put a lot of coal companies and coal miners out of business!" Sanders was also the only candidate by the time WV's primary was held. If Jim Webb, or even Chafee and O'Malley were still in the race, one of them could've taken WV in the Dem primary.

I really don't buy Trump being an agent of Putin for a second. He literally bombed Russia's main ally in the Middle East and it caused huge uproar in the states. NJ's turnout would be low, but lots of Democrats in voter-rich Bergen and Passaic Counties would stay home, not to mention the western part of the state is steadfast GOP.

Also, Sanders isn't honest. He claims everything will be free, he'll start a revolution, and America will be great, but he doesn't tell you about the part with more government, more control, more taxes, and more bureaucracy.

Don't forget the robbery of money wealth redistribution!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Easily Trump. Bernie Sanders had not one negative ad run against him. And he has no idea how to take attacks in stride when he does.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Easily Trump. Bernie Sanders had not one negative ad run against him. And he has no idea how to take attacks in stride when he does.

Given the absolute bloody murder the liberal press was screaming the entire primary, and given how he stayed positive and stayed on message, I think you're pretty much empirically wrong.

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

The press hated Reagan, the press hated trump. Reagan won in a landslide in his second turn. Maybe if trump continues to do what he is doing, the media will stop bashing trump for what he is doing. I don't know, maybe the mainstream media will continue bashing him and lose in his second term breaking the tradition of two-term presidents.

[dw93]

If Bernie were younger and Trump's Presidency looks like it does now in four years and/or there's a recession, Bernie kicks his ass. However, Bernie's age (and I say this as someone who voted for him in the primaries) is going to be an issue as he'll be 79 years old by election day 2020, where as Trump, who is still old, will be only 74. The Democrats need a younger equivalent to Bernie Sanders (who isn't Tulsi Gabbard) to run in 2020.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Swing states: IN, OH, PA, VA, IA, FL, AZ, GA. IN, AZ, and GA take looooooong into the night to call, and Dems win the Governorship in a squeaker. NC is fool's gold that Sanders abandons in late Sept.

FL has deeply depressed turnout among Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade and among white voters in North FL. The latter phenomenon is felt all over the rest of the south, but not nearly enough to strongly influence results outside of GA.

[TheSaint250]

Swing states: IN, OH, PA, VA, IA, FL, AZ, GA. IN and AZ take looooooong into the night to call, and Dems win the Governorship in a squeaker. NC is fool's gold that Sanders abandons in late Sept.

He's not winning MT or IA

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Swing states: IN, OH, PA, VA, IA, FL, AZ, GA. IN and AZ take looooooong into the night to call, and Dems win the Governorship in a squeaker. NC is fool's gold that Sanders abandons in late Sept.

He's not winning MT or IA

MT is a bit of a fantasy, I'll admit, but I think IA has suffered more from dissatisfaction with the top of the ticket than any concrete Dem erosion there.

[Hammy]

Likely 2016 map except flip MI/WI/PA and possibly FL.

[Shadows]

400 EV & pretty easily. I just want to see the debates to see Trump being humiliated. Sanders' is an issue based debater who has debated these issues for his life, he is an expert in framing the debate as an out of touch rich people's candidate vs a representative for the ordinary man. Trump can only do personal attacks based debates. This is what Hillary got wrong & that she had no emotional connect, authenticity & couldn't frame the context of the debate like Bernie can.

Trump will be humiliated & he can run any negative ads he wants. Bernie hasn't run negative ads & will tower above with an issue based campaign while Trump will look mean & nasty who can't debate issues. The Media & other Democrat based organizations are anyway present to point out Trump's personal issues (you don't need negative ads !)

[Liberalrocks]

Trump

[Lord Admirale]

400 EV & pretty easily. I just want to see the debates to see Trump being humiliated. Sanders' is an issue based debater who has debated these issues for his life, he is an expert in framing the debate as an out of touch rich people's candidate vs a representative for the ordinary man. Trump can only do personal attacks based debates. This is what Hillary got wrong & that she had no emotional connect, authenticity & couldn't frame the context of the debate like Bernie can.

Trump will be humiliated & he can run any negative ads he wants. Bernie hasn't run negative ads & will tower above with an issue based campaign while Trump will look mean & nasty who can't debate issues. The Media & other Democrat based organizations are anyway present to point out Trump's personal issues (you don't need negative ads !)

Hillary defeated Trump in all three debates and she STILL managed to lose the general. Not to mention, if any of what you just said mattered, then Sanders would've trounced Hillary easily.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Easily Trump. Bernie Sanders had not one negative ad run against him. And he has no idea how to take attacks in stride when he does.

Bernie's 2006 Senate opponent spent $7.3 million against him. That's the same per capita as $3.75 billion nationwide. Bernie stomped him over 2-1.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

400 EV & pretty easily. I just want to see the debates to see Trump being humiliated. Sanders' is an issue based debater who has debated these issues for his life, he is an expert in framing the debate as an out of touch rich people's candidate vs a representative for the ordinary man. Trump can only do personal attacks based debates. This is what Hillary got wrong & that she had no emotional connect, authenticity & couldn't frame the context of the debate like Bernie can.

Trump will be humiliated & he can run any negative ads he wants. Bernie hasn't run negative ads & will tower above with an issue based campaign while Trump will look mean & nasty who can't debate issues. The Media & other Democrat based organizations are anyway present to point out Trump's personal issues (you don't need negative ads !)

Hillary defeated Trump in all three debates and she STILL managed to lose the general. Not to mention, if any of what you just said mattered, then Sanders would've trounced Hillary easily.

Party primaries are not general elections. They never have been general elections. They will never be general elections. Closed Dem primaries (where Sec. Clinton raked in the delegates) are basically the one election in this country with an electorate composed of the kind of person who actually (for some godawful reason or another) likes Sec. Clinton: registered Ds, who are disproportionately older and wealthier.

[cvparty]

400 EV & pretty easily. I just want to see the debates to see Trump being humiliated. Sanders' is an issue based debater who has debated these issues for his life, he is an expert in framing the debate as an out of touch rich people's candidate vs a representative for the ordinary man. Trump can only do personal attacks based debates. This is what Hillary got wrong & that she had no emotional connect, authenticity & couldn't frame the context of the debate like Bernie can.

Trump will be humiliated & he can run any negative ads he wants. Bernie hasn't run negative ads & will tower above with an issue based campaign while Trump will look mean & nasty who can't debate issues. The Media & other Democrat based organizations are anyway present to point out Trump's personal issues (you don't need negative ads !)

Hillary defeated Trump in all three debates and she STILL managed to lose the general. Not to mention, if any of what you just said mattered, then Sanders would've trounced Hillary easily.

idk, Donald pretty much ended her with "because you'd be in jail"

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Sanders lost the democratic debates and was a terrible candidate. A socialist and former communist who didn't hold a steady job until he was 40 and chanted death to the yankees is not a viable candidate. I'd guess Trump wins 52-39, with just under 400 electoral votes.

Trump was also a terrible candidate, but for now, Islamophobia and Xenophobia are a lot more popular than socialism.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

400 EV & pretty easily. I just want to see the debates to see Trump being humiliated. Sanders' is an issue based debater who has debated these issues for his life, he is an expert in framing the debate as an out of touch rich people's candidate vs a representative for the ordinary man. Trump can only do personal attacks based debates. This is what Hillary got wrong & that she had no emotional connect, authenticity & couldn't frame the context of the debate like Bernie can.

Trump will be humiliated & he can run any negative ads he wants. Bernie hasn't run negative ads & will tower above with an issue based campaign while Trump will look mean & nasty who can't debate issues. The Media & other Democrat based organizations are anyway present to point out Trump's personal issues (you don't need negative ads !)

Hillary defeated Trump in all three debates and she STILL managed to lose the general. Not to mention, if any of what you just said mattered, then Sanders would've trounced Hillary easily.

Party primaries are not general elections. They never have been general elections. They will never be general elections. Closed Dem primaries (where Sec. Clinton raked in the delegates) are basically the one election in this country with an electorate composed of the kind of person who actually (for some godawful reason or another) likes Sec. Clinton: registered Ds, who are disproportionately older and wealthier.

Sanders won democratic leaning independents, not centrists or republican independents. Given half the US stated they'd refuse to vote for a socialist, he'd have a very steep hill to climb.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sanders lost the democratic debates and was a terrible candidate. A socialist and former communist who didn't hold a steady job until he was 40 and chanted death to the yankees is not a viable candidate.

Pretty much.

[WE The People]

Sanders Would Win Easily.