WaPo: Mueller now investigating whether Trump obstructed justice

[The_Doctor]

1. Executive privilege doesn't extend to a criminal investigation.

2. Trump is at 38-56 and widening.

3. The economy may be slowing down.

4. Obstruction of justice on top of all this doesn't have the best look. The leak probably protects Mueller from being fired now.

5. Your regular reminder that indictments will be coming down especially around Trump's inner circle. Reminder: Trump cannot pay for the legal fees of those under investigation.

6. The GOP is not in a good place. See: 6th congressional district, Georgia. See:  This Is Not How the GOP saw the first six months of the Trump Administration going.

Impeachment or Trump refusing to run for a second term as the GOP implodes is highly probable.

[The_Doctor]

There's no substantial difference between 'Trumpism' and 'Reaganism'. There could have been - Trump was uniquely positioned, among all Republican Presidential nominees, to endorse a Keynesian cornerstone like universal health care above the heads of his Party establishment - but this would have required the Trump movement to be a legitimately populist one, rather than a last madcap effort to staunch the self-destruction of the Reagan coalition.

I've recently made the argument that Trumpism, at least rhetorically, is the logical conclusion of Reaganism.

But anywho, this thread is about Mueller. Sorry for getting this off topic.

I KNOW THIS IS WRONG but - I need to say this. Read the first two chapters of "Before the Storm" by Perlstein. I was shocked by the similarities to the Trumpist ideology before the realignment of 1980 modified it.

/End derailing thread.

[The_Doctor]

As usual, Donald Trump cannot resist stomping all over himself and making a gigantic mess because he's incapable of a rational strategy. And yes, he confirms he's under investigation for obstruction of justice.

[The_Doctor]

Oh, Trump is also throwing Congressional Republicans under the bus to avoid impeachment. He knows that if he firms up his 39%, he can avoid impeachment (or try to; I'm skeptical that if Mueller returns an obstruction charge to recommend to Congress, that Trumpy survives), but Congressional Republicans need to win like 8-10% more to avoid huge losses next year. That's why Thune responded the way he did. They cannot afford to adopt Trump's strategy to survive 2018. It's death for them to continue Trump's electoral strategy.

Trump doesn't care and doesn't want to change. The GOP never measurably supported him in 2016 and he doesn't care as long as they are forced to defend him against impeachment or any measure of justice. He may even view an opposition Congress as somewhat more favorable conditions (assuming he survives impeachment).

Basically, Trump's strategy isn't to broaden his base. It's to make his base even more fanatical and to avoid anything meaningful in terms of consequences. The GOP's problem, in 2018, is that they need to keep the broad base of reluctant Trumpers and hardcore Trump people.

Is this a perfect situation? Absolutely not. The Democrats could well impeach Trump in 2019 and garner enough momentum to push it through the Senate. Does Donald Trump think that far ahead? Since one of his tweets got him a special counsel, highly unlikely not.

[The_Doctor]

There's evidence that Trump would be better off broadening his base but at this point, it may just be simply too late. The opposition is too entrenched at this point and Trump's window of opportunity may have permanently closed. Nevertheless, if he acted sane and Presidential, he would be able to creep back up to 45%, which would foreclose impeachment.

But I'm not sure at this point if he has a reasonable strategy in place that has a favorable outcome that doesn't end in a one term failed Presidency or impeachment. At this point, the damage to his Presidency is very considerable. I'm not seeing a success story at this point.

For a success story Trump would need to be completely exonerated, his underlings escaping indictment (if Flynn, Manafort, and Kushner are indicted, it really reflects hugely badly on him), lead a strong economic recovery after the 2018-2019 recession), and Trump would need to master the fundamentals of governing.

The Trumpists don't realize this -  if criminal and unethical behavior doesn't nab him, a weak economy would bring him down or his incompetence. Or a mix of two out of three variables, or all of the above. They can excuse him all they want but again, it's a case of them literally hoping it's a one off each time, not a consistent pattern of governing and behaving. They can't literally admit that this President is bad because it would reflect poorly on their decision making skills in 2016 and their tribal loyalties. And their hate of liberals is so great that they can't just recant.

[The_Doctor]

Edit: Let me reformat my rant.

In the event of Mueller returning a obstruction of justice charge against Donald Trump and impeachment hearings beginning in the House (either under the GOP in 2018 or Democrats in 2019) ...

I should point out that Clinton survived impeachment because he had a 73% approval rating because of the strong economy of the late 1990s. With the anemic recovery under Obama and that weak wage growth of the late 2010s, do you really think Trump would be able to command the same loyalty among Congressional Republicans? Especially if his ratings are below 35% and there's a recession or a very weak recovery?

Honestly, people, we have 4.3% unemployment, and he's sitting at 38% approval. What do you think is going to happen when the economic recession hits?

[The_Doctor]

Political witch hunts never end with the witch hunters saying "well we have to admit it, we've got nothing". They would just drag it out and have it continue and continue until they got something. They've been forced to admit that they had nothing on Trump so their next line is "We've been forced to admit we had nothing on Trump. However the process by which we were forced to admit that is 'obstruction' so Catch - 22 we've now got something on him again"

This investigation is going to take a long time, which is not uncommon for a federal case as complex and far-reaching as the Russia scandal. You guys can bang on your drums all you want crying about how "it's been so long and there is no evidence!" but it means little except that you're impatient in wanting to discredit any and all negative accusations against your savior.

And the reverse is true.  The hang em high crowd is no better.

[edit] Hey, I did a "both sides do it" line.....unknowingly! 

Dude you're the one claiming Trumpy is innocent. Let's not pretend you're not making your own judgments. I've also said this investigation will go into 2019 and the preponderance of what we know at this point points towards some guilt.

[The_Doctor]

LOL @ "witch hunt." Trumpy brought this all on himself. He could have won the original and disciplined way but he couldn't keep it together, so of course he invited all this on himself. A disciplined campaign for the White House would have minded their p's and q's and had a disciplined operation from day 1. Let's not pretend his enemies did this. Most of this is Trump's own doing. 

I don't know why you insist on following a man who is his own greatest enemy and perpetrates his own failings, over and over again.

[The_Doctor]

Some people think that there was a witch hunt against Joe McCarthy. I don't think so; McCarthy was sloppy and an alcoholic. His wild assertions obscured the real Communist infiltrators in the State Department, who were there but far fewer in numbers and provenance. I'm one of these Republicans who believe that FDR had been infiltrated by Moscow at the end of his presidency to deal with post-war negotiations (he did fine however) but McCarthy definitely overblew it.

Back to 2017 -- Trump's now indicating he's under investigation, and is attacking everyone in a wild attempt to - I don't even know at this point.

[The_Doctor]

Please note that Mueller's team includes people who have expertise in organized crime and money laundering, as well as Watergate and other assorted activities like Eastern Europe.

This is relevant because Trump's mob ties have been there for decades, since it was a cornerstone of the New York real estate business. He's also had Russian ties dating to 2008, or so, I believe. That's the bigger story right now.

Jared Kushner is probably a prime target of the Mueller investigation as is Paul Manafort given the composition of the legal team.