The thing is this - Trump scored a massive own goal on himself. It's unlikely there's a smoking gun of Russian collusion, but obstruction is a tough rap to beat.
I think this is likely true. I doubt that Trump personally colluded with the Russians (let's be honest -- he doesn't even collude with his own staff), although it's conceivable that some of his associates did. But the obstruction part seems likely based on what we've seen so far.
I doubt that Trump & Co actually sat down and plotted out how to win the election with the active support of Russian intelligence. But I find it perfectly believable that Trump would, unprompted, say what he thought they wanted to hear, without considering any ramifications. I also would totally fail to be surprised if some of his older financial dealings with Russian interests were of very questionable legality.
