AL-GOV: Former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb announces candidacy

[BuckeyeNut]

Might Moore run for Governor if he fails to make it to the Senate?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Might Moore run for Governor if he fails to make it to the Senate?

Possibly. Though I don't see how he makes it past a primary runoff in either the Senate of Governor primaries.

[Pollster]

An excellent candidate, though still an uphill battle that will likely require a perfect storm to win.

Cobb will probably clear the field, to the chagrin of Walt Maddox who likely passed over the Senate special for this race.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

[Badger]

Likely R, but this could become competitive if Ivey gets primaried by some loon like Moore, or if the ghost of Bentley's corruption haunts her into the GE should she win the primary.

It's Alabama. Safe R.

MD was safe D and LA was safe R until they weren't.

My thoughts exactly. Note that both of the seats you mentioned switched hands largely thanks to terrible Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively. I wouldn't put money on Cobb winning this, but there's a non-negligible chance of a walking disaster like Moore or Dawson winning the GOP primary.

Alabama is much less inelastic than MD and LA, even on the state level. Until I see otherwise, this looks like Safe R. Still, Cobb could win in a perfect storm, but the GOP candidate would have to be pretty bad.

More than LA? Not much.

An excellent candidate, though still an uphill battle that will likely require a perfect storm to win.

Cobb will probably clear the field, to the chagrin of Walt Maddox who likely passed over the Senate special for this race.

Has the filing deadline for the special passed?

[Young Conservative]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

That's an amazing ad, especially for Alabama. I'm a city kid now, but my parents are not and this reminds of their quaint churches, similar to those that fill the  Alabama countryside.

[Kamala]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

That's an amazing ad, especially for Alabama. I'm a city kid now, but my parents are not and this reminds of their quaint churches, similar to those that fill the  Alabama countryside.

Yeah. Being "soft on crime" is pretty damning in Alabama as well, so this ad makes Bell Cobb seem like both the law and order candidate and a good ol' girl.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

I love Alabama ads

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhqbT3OiPLs - Jim Folsom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8g7TNsWz8w - Troy King

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBthR9JIZr8 - Tim James

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk1DudmZgY0 - Roy Moore

And I'm sure you all know Dale P.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

That's an amazing ad, especially for Alabama. I'm a city kid now, but my parents are not and this reminds of their quaint churches, similar to those that fill the  Alabama countryside.

It definitely reads as schmaltzy, but as I get older and travel the country more I'm swiftly realizing that my hatred of schmaltz is definitely an east-coast elite thing.

An updated version of this ad would probably be people from her church talking about how nice she is plus people who came before her talking about how fair she is plus like one or two Regular Alabamians talking about her policy.

[KingSweden]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

I love Alabama ads

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhqbT3OiPLs - Jim Folsom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8g7TNsWz8w - Troy King

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBthR9JIZr8 - Tim James

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk1DudmZgY0 - Roy Moore

And I'm sure you all know Dale P.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0

Nothing beats the insane, colorful sleaziness of Louisiana, but man, Alabama politics is wild. That Tim James ad is a classic. I remember all the parody videos of it that popped up that summer

[Kamala]

Waiting for more inspiring ads

I like the part where she's yelling at the guy in the orange jumpsuit

I love Alabama ads

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhqbT3OiPLs - Jim Folsom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8g7TNsWz8w - Troy King

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBthR9JIZr8 - Tim James

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk1DudmZgY0 - Roy Moore

And I'm sure you all know Dale P.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0

Nothing beats the insane, colorful sleaziness of Louisiana, but man, Alabama politics is wild. That Tim James ad is a classic. I remember all the parody videos of it that popped up that summer

How can you forget this attack as against Bradley Byrne?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rlAjTQO11V0

[Doimper]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

[GlobeSoc]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

Maybe they seriously think Roy Moore will get the R nomination. That + the AL GOP's recent scandals could be enough to make an opening for Democrats.

[KingSweden]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

Gov is easier than Senate I'd think

[Kingpoleon]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Wow! I prefer Maddox to Cobb, but if Richard Lindsey runs, I would prefer him.

[Cactus Jack]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

With Dawson and potentially Moore running, they have an actual opening. I'm just glad they're finally making an actual effort.

[JMT]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

Maybe they seriously think Roy Moore will get the R nomination. That + the AL GOP's recent scandals could be enough to make an opening for Democrats.

So are you saying you think Roy Moore may lose the Senate GOP primary in 2017, then run for Governor in 2018 and win the nomination for that office?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Wow! I prefer Maddox to Cobb, but if Richard Lindsey runs, I would prefer him.

Richard Lindsey lives about 10 minutes from me and he's a family friend. Trust me, he's not running

[Kingpoleon]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Wow! I prefer Maddox to Cobb, but if Richard Lindsey runs, I would prefer him.

Richard Lindsey lives about 10 minutes from me and he's a family friend. Trust me, he's not running

I really, really wish he would. He and Arthur Orr are my two favorite people in the Alabama state legislature, and either one of them would make a fine Governor.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Wow! I prefer Maddox to Cobb, but if Richard Lindsey runs, I would prefer him.

Richard Lindsey lives about 10 minutes from me and he's a family friend. Trust me, he's not running

I really, really wish he would. He and Arthur Orr are my two favorite people in the Alabama state legislature, and either one of them would make a fine Governor.

I totally agree. Richard is a great guy and I would love to have him as governor.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Walt Maddox is in. There is actually going to be a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

Are they seeing a close race? I don't get why the few people on Alabama's dem bench are getting in.

Maybe they seriously think Roy Moore will get the R nomination. That + the AL GOP's recent scandals could be enough to make an opening for Democrats.

So are you saying you think Roy Moore may lose the Senate GOP primary in 2017, then run for Governor in 2018 and win the nomination for that office?

It's a possibility. He seems content to continue his career, even though he's politically toxic.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AL will not vote Democratic in any statewide race. Whites have gone from 70-75% Republican to 85-90% Republican since Obama.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

AL will not vote Democratic in any statewide race. Whites have gone from 70-75% Republican to 85-90% Republican since Obama.

Louisiana is not too different from Alabama demograhpically and they voted for a Democrat for Governor while Obama was still in office. A little different circumstances, sure, but there's a non-zero chance of a Democrat winning the gubernatorial race there with all that's transpired down there. You wouldn't see so many Democrats eager to run if they didn't see polling indicating otherwise

A decent % of LA whites are Catholic, very different from the evangelical protestants of the other deep southern states. They are not as devoutly GOP.

[Adam Griffin]

AL will not vote Democratic in any statewide race. Whites have gone from 70-75% Republican to 85-90% Republican since Obama.

Louisiana is not too different from Alabama demograhpically and they voted for a Democrat for Governor while Obama was still in office. A little different circumstances, sure, but there's a non-zero chance of a Democrat winning the gubernatorial race there with all that's transpired down there. You wouldn't see so many Democrats eager to run if they didn't see polling indicating otherwise

A decent % of LA whites are Catholic, very different from the evangelical protestants of the other deep southern states. They are not as devoutly GOP.

There's a 22-point difference between the LA-GOV statewide margin and the LA-GOV margin in counties that are less black and/or less Catholic than the state as a whole: Edwards won statewide by 12, but Vitter won these counties by 10.

Comparing the less black/Catholic part of the state to the more black/Catholic part, it's a 30-point difference (Edwards wins by 20 in the latter group).