More likely top put house in play: the senate bill passing or failing?

[Hindsight was 2020]

So when it comes to this senate bill I wonder would the house be more likely to be in play if it passes and people are mad over it or it fails and reps are demoralized at they bungling over this issue? 

[Mr. Smith]

Methinks a failure would be worse.

I have little doubt a passage could be framed as a success and that a bunch of Trump tweets and Fox News could start another "welfare queen" argument to make a lot of victims just be glad of others losing theirs

[PragmaticPopulist]

Passing would be worse for Republicans than it failing. Losing coverage would at most demoralize the GOP base, and further energize Ds.

[Virginiá]

Better for Dems if it passes. People losing insurance would be the "Ebola/ISIS" of 2018, along with whatever disaster we find ourselves in at the time

Yes, this bill would be without a doubt a disaster for Republicans in 2018 and 2020. Americans don't like people monkeying with their health insurance, and look what happened when Democrats fought to get more people insured? Imagine what happens when over a year from now, millions of people have either lost their insurance or seen premiums go up - they won't be happy, and their friends and family will probably be off-put as well. All of this while seeing on the news that even more people will be expected to lose insurance / Medicaid support over the following years.

It would be even worse if Democrats can find in themselves a rare moment of messaging success. The entire reason these millions of people would lose insurance is basically so Republicans can take the money and instead give it to the wealthy. It's hardly exaggerating either - that is pretty much what is going on here. That alone compounds the issue for Republicans.

Let's be real here - the conservative base wanting PPACA repeal does not necessarily mean they want AHCA, either. Consider also that it doesn't require demoralizing the entire GOP base, it just takes pissing off a sizable number of Indies and sapping the enthusiasm from more moderate Republicans to cause a wave. This bill can absolutely do that.

If you ask me, the successful implementation of this bill could have extremely negative long-term repercussions for Republicans.

[Cactus Jack]

Failure would mean that the AHCA only goes down as a Republican embarrassment. If it passes, it'll be a Republican death knell for the next four years.

[Xing]

If we're just talking about 2018, I'd say that it depends on when it passes/fails. It will be much worse for Republicans in the long term if the bill passes.

[UncleSam]

Well I messed up my vote but it's fail by a mile and it's not even close.

The Republican base wants ObamaCare gone and their donors are already saying th cut off funding if they can't pass legislation. In the meantime they have very real ObamaCare problems + special election 'mandates' to pass off as reasonsto act right now on it. In addition honestly most of the plans people have with ObamaCare are absolute dogsh**t (think five digit deductibles) and I think it's pretty obvious failing would be infinitely better for Dems

Plus there's the old Bill Clinton theory that you do the divisive stuff as far out from elections as possible. If Republicans get this passed in July they'll have fifteen months before the midterms. Anyone who thinks  sti be the front and center main discussion point by then is assuming that nothing major happens internationally, that tax reform fails, that there's no new scotus opening, etc. Dems messed up by passing ObamaCare so soon before the midterms, and I think the Republicans know that and want to give themselves as much time as possible for things to blow over

[Brittain33]

This vote is not much of a contest so far. 15 million losing insurance before the midterms, including 4 million losing employer insurance, is unspinnable even for McConnell and Ryan.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Passing. The American public does not like sweeping change.