WV-PPD: Manchin holding early 9-point lead over "generic Republican"

[ElectionsGuy]

Manchin benefits in that Hillary isn't president. I just don't know what to expect in this race, if Manchin can continue to drive the Democrats insane by appealing to this Trump approving state without any controversies he can probably win. I was actually surprised Jim Justice won last year. But assuming Jenkins is running, I don't think he is to be dismissed. He kicked out Nick Rahall with ease and he's somewhat similar to Manchin.

[The_Doctor]

I'm skeptical of this. WV has trended very red in the past 6 years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm skeptical of this. WV has trended very red in the past 6 years.

I know what you mean, but there can be a few exceptions as we have seen, the question is if Joe Manchin will continue to be one of them.

[_]

Same people predicting OH +8, and I don't see dems putting doubt on this....

[The_Doctor]

West Virginia's polarization has been very intense. They have sent Republicans consistently since 2012 to every office in the state. I'm a little wary because we haven't gotten any polling since November 2016 where Manchin led.

So, I'm a little skeptical of this pollster until an independent poll corroborates it.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

West Virginia's polarization has been very intense. They have sent Republicans consistently since 2012 to every office in the state. I'm a little wary because we haven't gotten any polling since November 2016 where Manchin led.

So, I'm a little skeptical of this pollster until an independent poll corroborates it.

[The_Doctor]

West Virginia's polarization has been very intense. They have sent Republicans consistently since 2012 to every office in the state. I'm a little wary because we haven't gotten any polling since November 2016 where Manchin led.

So, I'm a little skeptical of this pollster until an independent poll corroborates it.

Touche.

Forgot him but wasn't he basically a Republican prior to 2015? Regardless I should've meant everyone but him.

[Mike Thick]

West Virginia's polarization has been very intense. They have sent Republicans consistently since 2012 to every office in the state. I'm a little wary because we haven't gotten any polling since November 2016 where Manchin led.

So, I'm a little skeptical of this pollster until an independent poll corroborates it.

Touche.

Forgot him but wasn't he basically a Republican prior to 2015? Regardless I should've meant everyone but him.

He was literally a Republican prior to 2015, and basically one ever since

[jamestroll]

I think Manchin is favored for reelection and like Heitkamp could end up winning by double digits.

I am not worried much about Joe Manchin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Manchin is favored for reelection and like Heitkamp could end up winning by double digits.

I am not worried much about Joe Manchin.

Depends on the opponent. Jenkins could definitely beat him, and Manchin is a bit overrated anyway IMO.

Heitkamp on the other hand... I agree that that one is a lost cause for the GOP.

Still lean D even with Jenkins, though nowhere near safe. Remember, we are talking about the guy who literally signed the bill into law making coal the official state rock of WV.

[Heisenberg]

I think Manchin is favored for reelection and like Heitkamp could end up winning by double digits.

I am not worried much about Joe Manchin.

Depends on the opponent. Jenkins could definitely beat him, and Manchin is a bit overrated anyway IMO.

Heitkamp on the other hand... I agree that that one is a lost cause for the GOP.

Still lean D even with Jenkins, though nowhere near safe. Remember, we are talking about the guy who literally signed the bill into law making coal the official state rock of WV.

Well, he later supported gun control laws, proudly endorsed Hillary Clinton (who's VERY unpopular in WV) even with her coal miner comments, and now supports Planned Parenthood. 2008 Manchin ≠ 2017 Manchin.

[GoTfan]

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Exactly!

Well Manchin is basically a Republican. He's a man who literally said the EPA should not be involved in coal regulation.

[Canis]

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Exactly!

Well Manchin is basically a Republican. He's a man who literally said the EPA should not be involved in coal regulation.

reposting my argument from another thread about primarying conservative democrats

While manchin is a conservative the only reason he votes so conservatively is so he can win re-election. Manchin has voted with the democrats 77% of the time which helps the democrats with desperately needed votes https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/

Voting with you 77% of the time is better than voting with you 0% of the time
as Al Franken puts it in his book
"Friends of mine ask me why we tolerate Democrats like Ben Nelson (a conservative democrat from Nebraska). I tell them he's the only kind of Democrat we can get elected in Nebraska, and we need as many democrats as we can get." (Al Franken Giant of the Senate pg 253)
I used to be in favor of primarying manchin but when looking at the facts it reveals that its not the smartest decision

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Exactly!

Well Manchin is basically a Republican. He's a man who literally said the EPA should not be involved in coal regulation.

reposting my argument from another thread about primarying conservative democrats

While manchin is a conservative the only reason he votes so conservatively is so he can win re-election. Manchin has voted with the democrats 77% of the time which helps the democrats with desperately needed votes https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/

Voting with you 77% of the time is better than voting with you 0% of the time
as Al Franken puts it in his book
"Friends of mine ask me why we tolerate Democrats like Ben Nelson (a conservative democrat from Nebraska). I tell them he's the only kind of Democrat we can get elected in Nebraska, and we need as many democrats as we can get." (Al Franken Giant of the Senate pg 253)
I used to be in favor of primarying manchin but when looking at the facts it reveals that its not the smartest decision

He's a far left idealist who is not even from America. Too ignorant to look at the overall stats and see that Manchin is the one of the only practical choices for the party to keep this seat. Plus, if he knew how to look at overall voting and bill records, he would see that at the end of the day, Manchin is still a democrat, just a common-sense moderate one.

[Canis]

As someone on the left half of the Democratic Party, I don't understand how anyone could want Manchin to get primaried by some ultra-progressive anti-coal liberal. When choosing a candidate, I would take a Blue Dog Democrat with a 75% chance of winning over someone I ideologically agree with more with a 15% chance of winning.

Exactly!

Well Manchin is basically a Republican. He's a man who literally said the EPA should not be involved in coal regulation.

reposting my argument from another thread about primarying conservative democrats

While manchin is a conservative the only reason he votes so conservatively is so he can win re-election. Manchin has voted with the democrats 77% of the time which helps the democrats with desperately needed votes https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/

Voting with you 77% of the time is better than voting with you 0% of the time
as Al Franken puts it in his book
"Friends of mine ask me why we tolerate Democrats like Ben Nelson (a conservative democrat from Nebraska). I tell them he's the only kind of Democrat we can get elected in Nebraska, and we need as many democrats as we can get." (Al Franken Giant of the Senate pg 253)
I used to be in favor of primarying manchin but when looking at the facts it reveals that its not the smartest decision

He's a far left idealist who is not even from America. Too ignorant to look at the overall stats and see that Manchin is the one of the only practical choices for the party to keep this seat. Plus, if he knew how to look at overall voting and bill records, he would see that at the end of the day, Manchin is still a democrat, just a common-sense moderate one.

I like how he doesn't respond to the arguments and just keeps sputting the stuff that was debunked in other threads