How Possible is this Map for the 2020 Election?

[Calthrina950]

I have been closely following the events surrounding the Russia investigation, and other affairs concerning President Trump. I am also aware of his extremely low approval rating (somewhere around 35-36 percent). Consequently, I decided to create a random, hypothetical map of what an election would look like if Trump received somewhere around that share of the popular vote. The map is here:


There is also a link here (of the new revised map): https://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/4/43/Map_of_Hypothetical_Election.png/revision/latest?cb=20170623031829

How plausible would this be? The map assumes that Trump gets about 38% of the popular vote, and his Democratic challenger somewhere around 61%. What should be changed? And what should be added? Which states, based on this map, go Republican? Which states would go Republican? And what would vote shares by demographic look like?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Elko County, voting dem...

[Sumner 1868]

Your map would have the Democrats sweep the South, plus Kansas and Utah. That isn't plausible.

Approval ratings don't automatically translate into electoral results. Jimmy Carter wouldn't have carried any states in 1980 if approval rating alone factored everything.

[Calthrina950]

Your map would have the Democrats sweep the South, plus Kansas and Utah. That isn't plausible.

Approval ratings don't automatically translate into electoral results. Jimmy Carter wouldn't have carried any states in 1980 if approval rating alone factored everything.

That is the point of the thread. What would be a plausible map for a 61% Democratic landslide? Assuming that things were to hold in that direction? Which states could be carried? And which would Trump still win?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I have been closely following the events surrounding the Russia investigation, and other affairs concerning President Trump. I am also aware of his extremely low approval rating (somewhere around 35-36 percent). Consequently, I decided to create a random, hypothetical map of what an election would look like if Trump received somewhere around that share of the popular vote. The map is here:


How plausible would this be? The map assumes that Trump gets about 38% of the popular vote, and his Democratic challenger somewhere around 61%. What should be changed? And what should be added? Which states, based on this map, go Republican? Which states would go Republican? And what would vote shares by demographic look like?

What is your methodolgy? Because you have Carroll NH going red even though Trump won it by 6 points. If it was a straight swing, Trump would keep TN, AR, AL, SD, KY, ID, ND, OK, WV, WY, NE-3.

[Calthrina950]

I have been closely following the events surrounding the Russia investigation, and other affairs concerning President Trump. I am also aware of his extremely low approval rating (somewhere around 35-36 percent). Consequently, I decided to create a random, hypothetical map of what an election would look like if Trump received somewhere around that share of the popular vote. The map is here:


How plausible would this be? The map assumes that Trump gets about 38% of the popular vote, and his Democratic challenger somewhere around 61%. What should be changed? And what should be added? Which states, based on this map, go Republican? Which states would go Republican? And what would vote shares by demographic look like?

What is your methodolgy? Because you have Carroll NH going red even though Trump won it by 6 points. If it was a straight swing, Trump would keep TN, AR, AL, SD, KY, ID, ND, OK, WV, WY, NE-3.

I didn't have a straight methodology. I just tried to build a map of counties, based upon my assumptions of the popular vote percentages.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I have been closely following the events surrounding the Russia investigation, and other affairs concerning President Trump. I am also aware of his extremely low approval rating (somewhere around 35-36 percent). Consequently, I decided to create a random, hypothetical map of what an election would look like if Trump received somewhere around that share of the popular vote. The map is here:


How plausible would this be? The map assumes that Trump gets about 38% of the popular vote, and his Democratic challenger somewhere around 61%. What should be changed? And what should be added? Which states, based on this map, go Republican? Which states would go Republican? And what would vote shares by demographic look like?

What is your methodolgy? Because you have Carroll NH going red even though Trump won it by 6 points. If it was a straight swing, Trump would keep TN, AR, AL, SD, KY, ID, ND, OK, WV, WY, NE-3.

I didn't have a straight methodology. I just tried to build a map of counties, based upon my assumptions of the popular vote percentages.

You have democrats winning counties they lost by 70, and losing counties they lost by 6.

[Calthrina950]

I have been closely following the events surrounding the Russia investigation, and other affairs concerning President Trump. I am also aware of his extremely low approval rating (somewhere around 35-36 percent). Consequently, I decided to create a random, hypothetical map of what an election would look like if Trump received somewhere around that share of the popular vote. The map is here:


How plausible would this be? The map assumes that Trump gets about 38% of the popular vote, and his Democratic challenger somewhere around 61%. What should be changed? And what should be added? Which states, based on this map, go Republican? Which states would go Republican? And what would vote shares by demographic look like?

What is your methodolgy? Because you have Carroll NH going red even though Trump won it by 6 points. If it was a straight swing, Trump would keep TN, AR, AL, SD, KY, ID, ND, OK, WV, WY, NE-3.

I didn't have a straight methodology. I just tried to build a map of counties, based upon my assumptions of the popular vote percentages.

You have democrats winning counties they lost by 70, and losing counties they lost by 6.

I see. I only did a random map, and just sought comments on what would be a realistic map.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A map where you did an even swing, or found a demographics model. Or even looked at election results for half those counties.

[MarkD]

Less than two weeks ago, I predicted this: "Not only do I think Trump will be so unpopular by 2020 that both [Iowa and Ohio] will go D, but I think Trump will lose most of the states that he won last year. In fact, I think he could be so unpopular that the only states that will still vote for him will be Alabama, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. The Democratic nominee will have a 47-state EC landslide."

Somebody said I was being ridiculous, but I still think you and I are being rather plausible.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Is it just me or is the map very low-quality? I can't even see how most Indiana counties are shaded.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Is it just me or is the map very low-quality? I can't even see how most Indiana counties are shaded.

You have open it in a new tab. Also, half the state's are literal copies of 1964.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Is it just me or is the map very low-quality? I can't even see how most Indiana counties are shaded.

You have open it in a new tab. Also, half the state's are literal copies of 1964.

Still not working, but whatever.

Also, there is no way if there is such a large swing Hamilton County, IN would still go Republican.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Is it just me or is the map very low-quality? I can't even see how most Indiana counties are shaded.

You have open it in a new tab. Also, half the state's are literal copies of 1964.

Still not working, but whatever.

Also, there is no way if there is such a large swing Hamilton County, IN would still go Republican.

Half the states are literal copies of 1964. Indiana for the most part is.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Highly doubtful. Polarization is just too high to go away anytime soon. From what I can make out from the map, I don't see a Democrat winning Eureka County, Nevada, Mohave County, Arizona, and some of those counties in northern Georgia.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not possible. There will be no 61-38 landslide. Trump will get at minimum 45 percent. With the Democrats surely nominating someone more popular than HRC the Dem candidate will get anywhere from 48-52 percent of the popular vote. I think the percentage of third party voters will go down without Hillary in the mix.

[Calthrina950]

Well, in that case what would be the most extensive victory that a Democratic candidate could garner against an unpopular Trump?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Well, in that case what would be the most extensive victory that a Democratic candidate could garner against an unpopular Trump?

Hard to say. The last time an incumbent president was defeated was 1992, and I don't think that's a really good comparison today. The closest recent comparison we probably have are incumbent governors that were defeated in closely-divided states, and even then, that's not too good because gubernatorial elections aren't as partisan.

To answer the question, my best guess would be something like a 3-4 point popular vote victory.

[Calthrina950]

Well, in that case what would be the most extensive victory that a Democratic candidate could garner against an unpopular Trump?

Hard to say. The last time an incumbent president was defeated was 1992, and I don't think that's a really good comparison today. The closest recent comparison we probably have are incumbent governors that were defeated in closely-divided states, and even then, that's not too good because gubernatorial elections aren't as partisan.

To answer the question, my best guess would be something like a 3-4 point popular vote victory.

I see. So probably just a normal electoral margin, similar to 2012. It seems as if only a situation of Great-Depression or World War II like proportions would cause a wipeout.

[AGA]

Why does this map have such a low resolution?

[Calthrina950]

Why does this map have such a low resolution?

That is the way it came out. A clearer map is here: https://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/b/b5/Election_of_2020-Trump_Defeated_Based_on_Polls.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/640?cb=20170616145723

[libertpaulian]

Is this conventional red/blue or Atlas red/blue?

[Calthrina950]

Is this conventional red/blue or Atlas red/blue?

Conventional.

[SoLongAtlas]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

[Calthrina950]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

Then what is possible. Assuming that Trump's approval ratings sunk down to Bush or Truman levels, how much of a victory margin could there be?