Arizona is the new Ohio

[Plankton5165]

No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, it has the longest streak in voting for a president, it hasn't voted for a loser in now 60 years. No Republican has won the White House without Arizona either. Trump won Ohio by nearly 10 points, he won Arizona by 4. Ohio's EVs are coming down, Arizona's is going up. In the 2040s, 30 years from now, they'll probably have the same-15 electoral votes. Who was popular 30 years ago? Madonna? Kim Wilde? There was barely any Internet for you guys.

I don't wanna go there now, let's appreciate the 2010s when it's there now, and when it is the 2020s, let's appreciate the 2020s. A decade is a very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very long time. The more you go ahead in time, the scarier it is.

[DPKdebator]

It might be somewhat of a bellwether in the 2020s, but eventually it'll be a lot like New Mexico, where the Republican isn't totally blown out but just can't win.

[Sumner 1868]

No. It may abandon the GOP by the 2040s but it won't be a swing state.

[The Arizonan]

I imagine Arizona in the future being what New Mexico was in 1992.

[Vern]

I can see NC being the new OH...

[cvparty]

I think Florida is the new bellwether

[DPKdebator]

I think Florida is the new bellwether

Except for 1992, Florida's voted for the winner in every election since 1964.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A good chunk of the R vote in AZ comes from seniors, olds, retirees etc, and a good chunk of the D vote in AZ comes from young people, especially the young Latino population. This means that unless you see still more like-minded elderly come in the state in relative terms, Dems stand to gain as these seniors die off.

[Mr. Smith]

Nevada's the Ohio now. Same reliability rate in the last 100 years. The margin was the exact same, and the numbers were virtually identical to the national popular vote.