Nj 2017 legislature

[jman123]

How do you see the NJ legislature after the Nov elections

[Suburbia]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

[Duke of York]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

I highly doubt even in a bad year Republicans could gain enough seats to flip either chamber of the legislature.

[LabourJersey]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

I highly doubt even in a bad year Republicans could gain enough seats to flip either chamber of the legislature.

The Republicans won a majority of the vote in the 2009 Assembly elections (52-48) but still won only 40% of all seats. The Republicans will not win a majority in 2019

[KingSweden]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

Do you have predictions for which seats flip?

[Suburbia]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

Do you have predictions for which seats flip?

Potentially 5 districts could flip in November 2017, as the gerrymandering in 2011 still is in effect. I'll take a look at some of the races and get back. Some safe R seats could be gone in a Democratic wave as well.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/is_the_political_makeup_of_the_nj_legislature_set.html

State Senator Jen Beck could lose to Vin Gopal in LD-11 if Murphy's Monmouth Democratic machine turns out. Her colleagues in the Assembly are Democrats, so her ticket could go down if Guadagno underperforms.

[Suburbia]

With the N.J. budget crisis, Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson) could face a speakership challenge from Assemblyman Craig Coughlin of Middlesex. It could be a crazy and bitter political impasse.

http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/columnists/charles-stile/2017/06/30/assembly-speaker-prieto-puts-job-line-budget-brawl/441272001/

The next governor, likely Phil Murphy, I wonder how he would deal with the N.J. Democratic Party's squabbles in the state Legislature.

[Virginiá]

The Republicans won a majority of the vote in the 2009 Assembly elections (52-48) but still won only 40% of all seats. The Republicans will not win a majority in 2019

I'm curious what kind of map this was under. Given the balance of power during the 2000 redistricting cycle, it doesn't seem like Democrats would have been able to gerrymander the legislative maps. They didn't take over the legislature until 2002, and even then it was still only a split state Senate with a succession of GOP governors.

Either way, in regards to the other poster's statement, Democrats are absolutely not going to lose their majority in either chamber under Trump. I think it would really take an extraordinary set of events to even make that possible.

[krazen1211]

Right now, New Jersey Democrats control the Assembly 52-28, they control the State Senate 24-16.

Nov. 2017:
Assembly
Democrats-55 seats (Gain D+3 seats)
Republicans-25 seats

State Senate:
25 seats (Gain D+1 seats)
15 seats

New Jersey Democrats could get a supermajority in November, but Gov. Phil Murphy could see a Republican Assembly in 2019 if voters get disillusioned despite the Democratic redistricting for the 2011 decade. A Murphy Assembly midterm in 2019 will be watched closely.

I highly doubt even in a bad year Republicans could gain enough seats to flip either chamber of the legislature.

The Republicans won a majority of the vote in the 2009 Assembly elections (52-48) but still won only 40% of all seats. The Republicans will not win a majority in 2019

The same is true in 2013!

Systematic under population of the Democrats seats and overpopulation of the Republicans seats helps with that.

[pikachu]

Both the congressional and state legislature maps have been gerrymandered for incumbent protection. I believe in the last redistricting process, the proposed maps sent by both the GOP and Dems were similar. Also worth pointing out that the Democrats won the popular vote in 2015.

[BudgieForce]

The Republicans won a majority of the vote in the 2009 Assembly elections (52-48) but still won only 40% of all seats. The Republicans will not win a majority in 2019

I'm curious what kind of map this was under. Given the balance of power during the 2000 redistricting cycle, it doesn't seem like Democrats would have been able to gerrymander the legislative maps. They didn't take over the legislature until 2002, and even then it was still only a split state Senate with a succession of GOP governors.

Either way, in regards to the other poster's statement, Democrats are absolutely not going to lose their majority in either chamber under Trump. I think it would really take an extraordinary set of events to even make that possible.

The map is created by an independent, bipartisan commission.

[krazen1211]

Both the congressional and state legislature maps have been gerrymandered for incumbent protection. I believe in the last redistricting process, the proposed maps sent by both the GOP and Dems were similar. Also worth pointing out that the Democrats won the popular vote in 2015.

For Dem incumbents yes. For Republican incumbents no. The Democratic party went out of their way to gerrymander a potential Democratic district in Monmouth County in the 11th district and also a 4 county snake in the 16th district, both of which were safe under the 2001 map.

[BudgieForce]

Both the congressional and state legislature maps have been gerrymandered for incumbent protection. I believe in the last redistricting process, the proposed maps sent by both the GOP and Dems were similar. Also worth pointing out that the Democrats won the popular vote in 2015.

For Dem incumbents yes. For Republican incumbents no. The Democratic party went out of their way to gerrymander a potential Democratic district in Monmouth County in the 11th district and also a 4 county snake in the 16th district, both of which were safe under the 2001 map.

Bipartisan 10-member New Jersey Redistricting Commission

5 Democrats

5 Republicans

[krazen1211]

Both the congressional and state legislature maps have been gerrymandered for incumbent protection. I believe in the last redistricting process, the proposed maps sent by both the GOP and Dems were similar. Also worth pointing out that the Democrats won the popular vote in 2015.

For Dem incumbents yes. For Republican incumbents no. The Democratic party went out of their way to gerrymander a potential Democratic district in Monmouth County in the 11th district and also a 4 county snake in the 16th district, both of which were safe under the 2001 map.

Bipartisan 10-member New Jersey Redistricting Commission

5 Democrats

5 Republicans

Trivia: What happens when those 10 do not agree on a legislative map?

[BudgieForce]

Both the congressional and state legislature maps have been gerrymandered for incumbent protection. I believe in the last redistricting process, the proposed maps sent by both the GOP and Dems were similar. Also worth pointing out that the Democrats won the popular vote in 2015.

For Dem incumbents yes. For Republican incumbents no. The Democratic party went out of their way to gerrymander a potential Democratic district in Monmouth County in the 11th district and also a 4 county snake in the 16th district, both of which were safe under the 2001 map.

Bipartisan 10-member New Jersey Redistricting Commission

5 Democrats

5 Republicans

Trivia: What happens when those 10 do not agree on a legislative map?

An 11th member is appointed by a supreme court justice to break the tie.

Edit: If I may add, Alan Rosenthal was a great choice. Literally, you could have not have asked for a better person to split the tie.

[Virginiá]

Are you guys talking about the 2000 cycle or the 2010 one?

[krazen1211]

An 11th member is appointed by a supreme court justice to break the tie.

Edit: If I may add, Alan Rosenthal was a great choice. Literally, you could have not have asked for a better person to split the tie.

Ah, great!

So when Mr. Rosenthal picks the map favored by 5 Democrats over the map favored by 5 Republicans, twice now,  I guess we end up in a scenario where Republicans get 40% of the seats with 52% of the vote?

Congratulations in advance on your victory.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

NJ is the most gerrymandered state in the nation. A 20-point Murphy victory might shake a few weaker Republican-held seats loose, but even then we're likely to see 90% of incumbents win again.