My Gubernatorial Predictions

[Spark]

My predictions for the Governors races in 2017 and 2018. Please don't hesitate to give me feedback. These are just my own personal assessments and opinion.

MN & AK to come

Gubernatorial Election in Virginia, 2017

Map:



Ed Gillespie (R)- 50.2%
Ralph Northam (D)- 49.8%

Gubernatorial Election in New Jersey, 2017

Map:



Phil Murphy (D)- 56.4%
Kim Guadagno (R)- 43.3%


Gubernatorial Election in Illinois, 2018

Map:



[Scott Drury (D)- 49.6%
Bruce Rauner (R), inc.- 48.4%

Gubernatorial Election in Connecticut, 2018

Map:



Mark Lauretti (R)- 51.4%
Nancy Wyman (D)- 47.6%

Gubernatorial Election in Florida, 2018

Map:



Gwen Graham (D)- 52.1%
Adam Putnam (R)- 47.9%


Gubernatorial Election in Pennsylvania, 2018

Map:



Tom Wolf (D), inc.- 51.8%
Scott Wagner (R)- 48.2%

Gubernatorial Election in Michigan, 2018



Gretchen Whitmer (D)- 55.3%
Bill Schuette (R)- 43.6%

Gubernatorial Election in Ohio, 2018



Mike DeWine (R)- 60.1%
Joe Schiavoni (D)- 39.8%

[PoliticalShelter]

Why are the colours flipped on Illinois?

Also I'm not sure how Northam loses but graham wins.

[UncleSam]

Flip the Connecticut and Florida races and it's reasonable, though IMO Northam will stomp Gillespie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everything is fine except Virginia

[TheSaint250]

Not sure Graham will win, and even if she does, she wouldn't win by that much.

Not sure about VA either

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson will help Graham win there, because Nelson and Bob Graham were senators there.  Everything goes the Dems direction except for Iowa, and Ohio and MA and MD

[Spark]

AK, MN, FL, & VA are toss-ups.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once, someone officially declares in WI, which is Kathleen Vinehout, she will get the supports from the DNC to run a strong race against 2X incumbant Walker, with nat'l implications.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michigan will go Democratic

[TheSaint250]

Possible turnovers:
-IL
-ME
-NV
-AK
-FL
-CT
-NH

Probable Turnovers:
-MI
-NM

Not-So-Competitive-That-People-Say-They-Are Seats:
-MA
-MD
-VT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probable turnovers
IL, MI, NM, NV, NJ FL and ME

Competetive seats
 NH and MD

Tilting Inc party preference
Iowa, WI,AK, MN, CO OH

Baker and Phil Scott are too popular

[Suburbia]

Phil Murphy will probably be the first Democratic gubernatorial nominee to win red Morris County in a long time. A traditionally white collar ancestral suburban county, that would be a blow to the NJGOP.

[Gass3268]

D+11 I am most unsure about AZ, GA, IA, KS and WI.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting maps. While it's still very early, they look fairly good. I'm doubtful about Ohio though. While Kasich won Cuyahoga County in 2015 due to incumbency, high popularity, and a weak opponent, I doubt Democrats will give Ohio as much a pass as back then. Betty Sutton seems to be a pretty good candidate despite the Ohio Democratic Party's incompetence.

[Skunk]

D+7 as of right now. AK is the one I'm most shaky about atm.

[PragmaticPopulist]

No Tossups map:

Still very early, but the most likely outcome I see right now is D+6, or D+7 but Nevada is a complete tossup due to D's small bench.

In Maryland, Hogan as of now, is favored, but the state hasn't had a two-term Republican governor since the 1950s, and doesn't have as much of a history of electing Republican governors as other northeastern states.

Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermont are popular, and both states have histories of electing Republican governors, so they are safer than Hogan.

A couple states have had unpopular governors that might create an opening for the opposing party. Republicans in Maine, Michigan, Kansas, and Oklahoma could have tough races, while Democrats in Connecticut are likely gonna be bogged down by outgoing unpopular Malloy. Wisconsin is a bit of a unique case, because while Walker is unpopular, Democrats don't have a good bench here, and Walker is an incumbent.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

D+7 as of right now. AK is the one I'm most shaky about atm.

This is exactly mine, except I'm giving Walker (AK) the benefit of the doubt for now.

[Gass3268]

D+12 I am most unsure about AZ, GA, IA, KS and WI.

Forgot Florida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems winning FL, IL, ME, MD, MI, NV, NH, NJ and NM +8 is probably where it will wind up at.

24 D-2I-24R

Jealous will beat Hogan rather than Brewer winning in KS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No way Dems lose CT and VA

[Skunk]

No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.

[PragmaticPopulist]

No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.

This.

It's hard to see Gillespie pulling off a win in Virginia, since the state is becoming friendlier toward Democrats, and Trump is very unpopular there.

CT is a very plausible R pickup though. the state Democratic party has been eroded to the point where they only control the state senate because of the Lieutenant Governor, and have a narrow majority in the state house as well. CT also has a history of electing moderate Republican governors, like most other northeastern states.

[Sir Mohamed]

VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

[Rjjr77]

while your outcome is correct, your MAP in ohio is pretty whacked.

[Rjjr77]

VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?