My Gubernatorial Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.

Dems are gonna win MD rather than KS because Carl Brewer is anti-2nd amendment.  Jealous will break out of pack in his anti-concealed weapon and MD will have a Democratic gain. As for CT, Dems will win.

[PAK Man]

My latest predictions:

2017:
New Jersey - Likely D
Virginia - Leans D

2018:
Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Leans D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Leans R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Leans R
Kansas - Leans R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Leans R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Leans R
New Mexico - Leans D (+1)
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Leans D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Likely R
Wyoming - Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan veteoed Paid Leave of Absence and Sununu's race will become competetive.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Will Baker win all counties in MA except Boston?

[Sir Mohamed]

VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?

I think Taylor will pull it off, because she received Kasich's endorsement, who is still very popular in OH.

[Rjjr77]

VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?

I think Taylor will pull it off, because she received Kasich's endorsement, who is still very popular in OH.

No money, lower name ID and Kasich's endorsement all seems like a massive loss to me.

Kasich isn't as popular in Ohio as people think, I don't think Kasich could win a GOP primary here, his base isn't happy with him, and we've seen his approvals dip, even though he's buoyed with higher than average numbers among democrats.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Follow my gubernatorial predictions series on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCLinnmzSyoC5QhJUaqt5BaTi3HSuqcmy

Doing all of the races.

[Lord Admirale]

New Jersey's county map is way off. Bigly.

[Senator-elect Spark]

2018:

MA: Gov. Charlie Baker def. Jay Gonzalez (62-37%)
VT: Gov. Phil Scott def. Dem (56-42%)
RI: Gov. Gina Raimondo def. Allan Fung (48-42%)
CT: Erin Stewart def. Susan Bysiewicz (48-46%)
ME: Shawn Moody def. Terry Hayes and Janet Mills (41-37-13%)
NH: Gov. Chris Sununu def. Steve Marchand (48-47%)
PA: Gov. Tom Wolf def. Scott Wagner (51-47%)
OH: Richard Cordray def. Mike DeWine (49-46%)
NY: Gov. Andrew Cuomo def. Marc Molinaro (56-42%)
MI: Gretchen Whitmer def. Att Gen. Bill Schuette (57-43%)
IL: J.B. Pritzker def. Gov. Bruce Rauner (50-44%)
FL: Gwen Graham def. Adam Putnam (52-47%)
MD: Gov. Larry Hogan def. Rushurn Baker (50-48%)
WI: Gov. Scott Walker def. Tony Evers (51-48%)
MN: Erin Murphy def. Tim Pawlenty (51-47%)
IA: Gov. Kim Reynolds def. Nate Boulton (55-42%)
SD: Kristi Noem def. Billie Sutton (61-38%)
NE: Gov. Pete Ricketts (75%, unopposed)
KS: Carl Brewer def. Kris Kobach (upset pick) (50-47%)
OK: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb def. Drew Edmondson (53-46%)
TX: Gov. Greg Abbott def. Lupe Valdez (51-40%)
NM: Michelle Lujan Grisham def. Steve Pearce (47-45%)
AZ: Gov. Doug Ducey def. Steve Farley (54-43%)
CO: Cary Kennedy def. Victor Mitchell (52-45%)
NV: Att Gen. Adam Laxalt def. Stephen Sisolak (49-47%)
ID: Lt. Gov. Brad Little def. A.J. Balukoff (62-37%)
WY: Mark Gordon def. Mary Throne (60-38%)
OR: Gov. Kate Brown def. Knute Buehler (50-46%)
CA: Gavin Newsom def. John Cox (53-43%)
HI: Gov. David Ige def. Bob McDermott (59-40%)
AK: Mike Chenault def. Gov. Bill Walker (upset, Walker not popular), (47-45%)
AR: Gov. Asa Hutchinson def. Jared Henderson (62-36%)
AL: Gov. Kay Ivey def. Susan Bell Cobb (56-43%)
SC: Gov. Henry McMaster def. James Smith (55-43%)
TN: Diane Black def. Karl Dean (53-44%)
GA: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle def. Stacey Abrams (52-47%)

[Kamala]

Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.

[Kamala]

Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.

Well, there hasn't been a male representative from South Dakota in almost a decade and a half either.

I would say Noem is currently slightly favored because I think she's more dynamic than Jackley and most likely also has the support of Thune and his machine.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.

Well, there hasn't been a male representative from South Dakota in almost a decade and a half either.

I would say Noem is currently slightly favored because I think she's more dynamic than Jackley and most likely also has the support of Thune and his machine.

Either would win the race handily. I favor Jackley slightly for now.

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: AR, ID, SD
Likely R: AL, OK, MA, SC, SD, TN, TX
Lean R: GA, MD, NE, OH, VT
Tilt R: AZ, IA, NV, NH, WI
Tossup: FL, IL, KS
Tilt D: CO, CT, RI
Lean D: ME, MI, PA, VA
Likely D: MN, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NJ, NY, OR

Likely ID: AK
37/50

D+4 to D+7, with D+16(Tossup, Tilt R, and GA, MD, NE, and VT flipping) being a huge ceiling.

[Kamala]

Safe R: AR, ID, SD
Likely R: AL, OK, MA, SC, SD, TN, TX
Lean R: GA, MD, NE, OH, VT
Tilt R: AZ, IA, NV, NH, WI
Tossup: FL, IL, KS
Tilt D: CO, CT, RI
Lean D: ME, MI, PA, VA
Likely D: MN, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NJ, NY, OR

Likely ID: AK
37/50

D+4 to D+7, with D+16(Tossup, Tilt R, and GA, MD, NE, and VT flipping) being a huge ceiling.

You have South Dakota listed twice.

[Kingpoleon]

Then I'm missing a state. I should have 38.

[Cactus Jack]

May as well have a crack at this. Probably a few of these will be a touch bold, but what's life without eating a few hats?

2017
NJ: Phil Murphy
VA: Ralph Northam

2018
AL: Tommy Battle
AK: Bill Walker
AR: Asa Hutchinson
AZ: Greg Stanton*
CA: Gavin Newsom
CO: Jared Polis
CT: Dan Drew
FL: Gwen Graham*
GA: Brian Kemp
HI: Tulsi Gabbard**
IA: Kim Reynolds
ID: Brad Little
IL: Tom Dart*
KS: Joshua Svaty*
MA: Charlie Baker
MD: John Delaney*
ME: Susan Collins
MI: Gretchen Whitmer*
MN: Tim Walz
NE: Bob Krist**
NH: Steve Marchand*
NM: Javier Gonzales*
NV: Adam Laxalt
NY: Andrew Cuomo
OH: Mike DeWine
OK: Mick Cornett
OR: Kate Brown
PA: Tom Wolf
RI: Peter Kilmartin**
SC: Henry McMaster
SD: Marty Jackley
TN: Karl Dean*
TX: Greg Abbott
VT: Phil Scott
WI: Scott Walker
WY: Ed Murray

* Pickup
** Incumbent defeated in primary

[Xing]

Ratings:

Prediction:

D+7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ* P-David Garcia def T Ducey
FL P-Gwen Graham def T Adam Putnam
IL* S-Chris Kennedy def cc Bruce Rauner
KS S-Carl Brewer def T- Kris Kobach
MD*S Ben Jealous def cc Larry Hogan
MI  S-Gretchen Whitmerdef T Bill Schuette
NH* S-Steve Marchard def T- Sununu
NJ S-Phil Murphy def T- Kim Guadagno
NM S Michelle Grisham def T Aubrey Dunn Jr

D+10 with ME

[Senator-elect Spark]

*Bump* Updated my predictions for November.

[TheSaint250]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, MI, IL, ME, NM safe D
Wildcards OH, FL, MD& NV, AK, Walker winning
AZ and TN, GA tilt R

Pollsters are underestimating Ben Jealous, Dems come home, like they do in 2006; and Hogan upset Anthony Brown as well, 2014😁

[KingSweden]

Eminently reasonable at this point in time. I’d consider making AZ a Tossup, though

[Tender Branson]

AZ is a tossup.

OK, IA, GA, TN, AK all have the potential to become tossups over the next months.

Democrats should pick up somewhere between 2-10 governors this election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

5-8 Govs; sweeping OH and FL, which would be hard to do, and the basic 273 map WI, MI and Pa