VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.
My predictions (as of June 2017):
VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%
NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%
OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%
MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%
FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%
PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%
IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%
CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%
NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%
really think Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?
I think Taylor will pull it off, because she received Kasich's endorsement, who is still very popular in OH.
No money, lower name ID and Kasich's endorsement all seems like a massive loss to me.
Kasich isn't as popular in Ohio as people think, I don't think Kasich could win a GOP primary here, his base isn't happy with him, and we've seen his approvals dip, even though he's buoyed with higher than average numbers among democrats.
