My Gubernatorial Predictions

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting maps. While it's still very early, they look fairly good. I'm doubtful about Ohio though. While Kasich won Cuyahoga County in 2015 due to incumbency, high popularity, and a weak opponent, I doubt Democrats will give Ohio as much a pass as back then. Betty Sutton seems to be a pretty good candidate despite the Ohio Democratic Party's incompetence.

[PragmaticPopulist]

No Tossups map:

Still very early, but the most likely outcome I see right now is D+6, or D+7 but Nevada is a complete tossup due to D's small bench.

In Maryland, Hogan as of now, is favored, but the state hasn't had a two-term Republican governor since the 1950s, and doesn't have as much of a history of electing Republican governors as other northeastern states.

Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermont are popular, and both states have histories of electing Republican governors, so they are safer than Hogan.

A couple states have had unpopular governors that might create an opening for the opposing party. Republicans in Maine, Michigan, Kansas, and Oklahoma could have tough races, while Democrats in Connecticut are likely gonna be bogged down by outgoing unpopular Malloy. Wisconsin is a bit of a unique case, because while Walker is unpopular, Democrats don't have a good bench here, and Walker is an incumbent.

[PragmaticPopulist]

No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.

This.

It's hard to see Gillespie pulling off a win in Virginia, since the state is becoming friendlier toward Democrats, and Trump is very unpopular there.

CT is a very plausible R pickup though. the state Democratic party has been eroded to the point where they only control the state senate because of the Lieutenant Governor, and have a narrow majority in the state house as well. CT also has a history of electing moderate Republican governors, like most other northeastern states.