CA SEN 2018: Does Feinstein win in 2018?

[I’m not Stu]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

I think she will be a Senator for life just like Byrd. I wonder what a D vs D runoff would look like. I think Feinstein could sweep every county, or at least almost every county.

I could see a case for Santa Cruz, Humboldt, or Mendocino voting against her.

Also, maybe some of the super Republican counties who would vote for a yellow dog Republican over a Democrat. That's why I think Eisen could win some of these counties if he made the run off. Voters see that he's not a Dem and pick him.

Right. Eisen is running as an independent. Could Stokes or Melendez, who are running as Democrats, win Mendocino, Humboldt, or Santa Cruz?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

I think she will be a Senator for life just like Byrd. I wonder what a D vs D runoff would look like. I think Feinstein could sweep every county, or at least almost every county.

I could see a case for Santa Cruz, Humboldt, or Mendocino voting against her.

Also, maybe some of the super Republican counties who would vote for a yellow dog Republican over a Democrat. That's why I think Eisen could win some of these counties if he made the run off. Voters see that he's not a Dem and pick him.

Right. Eisen is running as an independent. Could Stokes or Melendez, who are running as Democrats, win Mendocino, Humboldt, or Santa Cruz?

I'd say that it's possible? if they (all three, including Eisen) can make it about Feinstein's age, it's possible. A poll that I saw showed that the favorability of Feinstein dropped when people were told/reminded of her age.

[I’m not Stu]

What would a county map of Feinstein vs Eisen look like? Eisen could win a few extremely GOP counties because he's an independent. What about a map of Feinstein vs no-name D?

[MAINEiac4434]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

If she holds out until 2024, this seat is Xavier Becerra's

If she dies in office the seat is Becerra's.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What would a county map of Feinstein vs Eisen look like? Eisen could win a few extremely GOP counties because he's an independent. What about a map of Feinstein vs no-name D?

Posted this a few months ago.

It depends on what the Republicans do. In 2016, there was a high rate of skipping the senate vote among Republicans. Sanchez wasn't really that well known; Harris was the AG, but wasn't super high profile. Some Republicans might vote for Eisen just to get Feinstein out. Honestly, a lot could depend on if Eisen runs as a Democrat or an Independent.

If he runs as an Indy, more Republican voters might choose him out of sheer hatred for Feinstein. Dems should expect to get about 60-65% of the vote in a Dem vs Rep race. Calculations would get wonky if you try to factor in not having a Republican. If that Kansas special election is anything to go off of, Republican turnout might be depressed, especially if the gubernatorial race ends up being between two Dems. Eisen could attract some left wing votes too.

Feinstein's approval rating is just under 50%. Article link: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/325393-many-california-voters-dont-know-how-to-rate-kamala-harris-poll and the actual poll link http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_317MBS.pdf

Another poll from a week ago had more interesting results. 52% don't want her to run again and 62% said that they don't want her to run again after they were reminded that she'll be 84 next year. However, in this poll she has a 59% approval rating. 56% of people would vote for her if she runs, but that number drops to 50% when reminded of her age. There is a poll for a race without Feinstein (Jerry Brown leads, even though he's almost as old); Eisen is not included. Article link: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article142467684.html

Total votes in some deeply Republican counties (the two that Tim Donnelly won in the 2014 Gubernatorial Primary).
Modoc: President: 3,843 Senate: 2,575
Lassen: President: 10,699 Senate: 7,377

Low Republican turnout could lead to really interesting results, such as Eisen managing to get second place. I would not count him out at all.

If Feinstein doesn't run, Eisen has no chance. The field will quickly get crowded and he'll be a nobody in a sea of pols. Eisen wouldn't be the first professor from CA elected to the senate. S.I. Hayakawa served one term from 1977 to 1983 as a Republican.

As to the root of the matter, at this point, I think that Feinstein would win with about 60% to Eisen's 40%. Eisen would probably do well in areas where Bernie did well in the primary (including places like Modoc and Lassen) due to a combination of more left wing Dems and more anti-Feinstein Republicans. My initial map would be based on a swing from Bernie to Hillary in the primary while ignoring votes for the no-name Dems.

I'll try to make a map later.

Edit: Here's the map. Not sure how to embed it since Imgur has turned to crap and won't allow embedded images. http://imgur.com/yi2u6K4

Inyo, Lake, Mono, and Sierra were decided for Eisen by under a percent. Lassen went to Feinstein by under 1%. Modoc was 51.05% to 48.95% for Feinstein.

I took the percentage between Clinton and Sanders and then swung it 6.45% to Clinton to make it 60% to 40% in favor of Feinstein.

[I’m not Stu]

What would a county map of Feinstein vs Eisen look like? Eisen could win a few extremely GOP counties because he's an independent. What about a map of Feinstein vs no-name D?

Posted this a few months ago.

It depends on what the Republicans do. In 2016, there was a high rate of skipping the senate vote among Republicans. Sanchez wasn't really that well known; Harris was the AG, but wasn't super high profile. Some Republicans might vote for Eisen just to get Feinstein out. Honestly, a lot could depend on if Eisen runs as a Democrat or an Independent.

If he runs as an Indy, more Republican voters might choose him out of sheer hatred for Feinstein. Dems should expect to get about 60-65% of the vote in a Dem vs Rep race. Calculations would get wonky if you try to factor in not having a Republican. If that Kansas special election is anything to go off of, Republican turnout might be depressed, especially if the gubernatorial race ends up being between two Dems. Eisen could attract some left wing votes too.

Feinstein's approval rating is just under 50%. Article link: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/325393-many-california-voters-dont-know-how-to-rate-kamala-harris-poll and the actual poll link http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_317MBS.pdf

Another poll from a week ago had more interesting results. 52% don't want her to run again and 62% said that they don't want her to run again after they were reminded that she'll be 84 next year. However, in this poll she has a 59% approval rating. 56% of people would vote for her if she runs, but that number drops to 50% when reminded of her age. There is a poll for a race without Feinstein (Jerry Brown leads, even though he's almost as old); Eisen is not included. Article link: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article142467684.html

Total votes in some deeply Republican counties (the two that Tim Donnelly won in the 2014 Gubernatorial Primary).
Modoc: President: 3,843 Senate: 2,575
Lassen: President: 10,699 Senate: 7,377

Low Republican turnout could lead to really interesting results, such as Eisen managing to get second place. I would not count him out at all.

If Feinstein doesn't run, Eisen has no chance. The field will quickly get crowded and he'll be a nobody in a sea of pols. Eisen wouldn't be the first professor from CA elected to the senate. S.I. Hayakawa served one term from 1977 to 1983 as a Republican.

As to the root of the matter, at this point, I think that Feinstein would win with about 60% to Eisen's 40%. Eisen would probably do well in areas where Bernie did well in the primary (including places like Modoc and Lassen) due to a combination of more left wing Dems and more anti-Feinstein Republicans. My initial map would be based on a swing from Bernie to Hillary in the primary while ignoring votes for the no-name Dems.

I'll try to make a map later.

Edit: Here's the map. Not sure how to embed it since Imgur has turned to crap and won't allow embedded images. http://imgur.com/yi2u6K4

Inyo, Lake, Mono, and Sierra were decided for Eisen by under a percent. Lassen went to Feinstein by under 1%. Modoc was 51.05% to 48.95% for Feinstein.

I took the percentage between Clinton and Sanders and then swung it 6.45% to Clinton to make it 60% to 40% in favor of Feinstein.

I was able to embed it here. Might the map look close to this if an actual Democrat like Stokes or Melendez faces Feinstein instead of independent Eisen? I can't imagine an extremely GOP county voting for an registered non-Feinstein Democrat, but can imagine them voting for an independent like Eisen.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

If she holds out until 2024, this seat is Xavier Becerra's

If she dies in office the seat is Becerra's.

I think it's more likely Becerra would pick the seat up if Feinstein retired. There's no guarantee a Governor Newsom, Chiang or Villiaraigosa would appoint Becerra (although Viliaraigosa might) if Feinstein is unable to complete her next term.

[Mr. Smith]

@Larry: Alameda should be close too just because of the native-son effect Eisen has, wouldn't be surprised if he won it if he's winning Siskiyou and Lake.

It was the worst performance Hillary had in the Bay Area, won by single digits while everywhere else went to her bigly.

[I’m not Stu]

@Larry: Alameda should be close too just because of the native-son effect Eisen has, wouldn't be surprised if he won it if he's winning Siskiyou and Lake.

It was the worst performance Hillary had in the Bay Area, won by single digits while everywhere else went to her bigly.

What if it's Stokes or Melendez? They don't have the native-son effect of Eisen.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What would a county map of Feinstein vs Eisen look like? Eisen could win a few extremely GOP counties because he's an independent. What about a map of Feinstein vs no-name D?

Posted this a few months ago.

Snip

I was able to embed it here. Might the map look close to this if an actual Democrat like Stokes or Melendez faces Feinstein instead of independent Eisen? I can't imagine an extremely GOP county voting for an registered non-Feinstein Democrat, but can imagine them voting for an independent like Eisen.
SNIP

@Larry: Alameda should be close too just because of the native-son effect Eisen has, wouldn't be surprised if he won it if he's winning Siskiyou and Lake.

It was the worst performance Hillary had in the Bay Area, won by single digits while everywhere else went to her bigly.

Feinstein is also from the Bay Area, albeit from the other side of the Bridge, so that effect might be slightly dampened. Alameda is definitely more amenable to progressives though. Not sure how close the actual numbers that I calculated were.

Stokes and Melendez wouldn't have the "independent" advantage. They might win the left leaning counties, but Siskyou and Inyo would probably just go for Feinstein, I think.