CA SEN 2018: Does Feinstein win in 2018?

[I’m not Stu]

Feinstein now has 7 Democratic challengers and one Independent (effectively a Democrat) challenger. Only 3 Republicans have declared candidacy. Does Feinstein win in 2018? As of now, the primary challenger vote would likely be too divided to advance.

The Democratic/Independent challengers:
Michael Eisen (I)
Topher Brennan (D)
Eugene Patterson Harris (D)
David Hildebrand (D)
John Melendez (D)
Steve Stokes (D)
Douglas Howard Pierce (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

[I’m not Stu]

Does Feinstein win if she runs?

[Skunk]

Does Feinstein win if she runs?

Unfortunately, yes.

[I’m not Stu]

I bet more Atlasian Republicans (which I am effectively) will support Feinstein (at least reluctantly if they don't like Feinstein) than Atlasian Democrats. I will eagerly support Feinstein if the other candidate in November is another Democrat or a very conservative Republican.

[Kamala]

Feinstein is decent for right now, her best quality is her seniority. It's good for a state as large as California to have a high-seniority senator so she can get plum committee positions.

[I’m not Stu]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

Adam Schiff would likely only run if Feinstein retires. Would Barbara Lee run against Feinstein, run only if Feinstein retires, or not run at all?

[Del Tachi]

Does Feinstein win if she runs?

Unfortunately, yes.

[TheSaint250]

Feinstein is slowly becoming my favorite Democrat in the Senate, behind (FBM)anchin

[I’m not Stu]

Feinstein is slowly becoming my favorite Democrat in the Senate, behind (FBM)anchin

Feinstein is my favorite Senate Democrat.

[Mr. Smith]

She's going nowhere., unfortunately.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

If she holds out until 2024, this seat is Xavier Becerra's

[Beet]

Yes, she doesn't want Schiff or Barbara Lee to replace her.  She's running for another term

If she holds out until 2024, this seat is Xavier Becerra's

It would be nice for California to have a Hispanic in the Senate.

[Bacon King]

Is there any hypothetical candidate that could pose even the slightest threat to her?

[Nyvin]

I'd say there's a good chance it's another Dem vs Dem matchup next year.   

Sadly though Feinstein will win easily.

[Sir Mohamed]

Almost likely, yes. The (current) Democratic challengers are not well known. Higher profile candidates would likely only enter the race, if Feinstein retires, what I hope she does, because I think it's time for fresh new face. Someone like Eric Garcetti, Kevin de Leon or Alex Padilla would be nice. I myself will not vote for her in the primary and carefully study the other candidates before making a decision who I will vote for. I would only vote for Feinstein in the GE if the opponent is a Republican.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

We aren't likely to get a strong Dem running against Feinstein. Stokes went nowhere (2% or so) in 2016. Eisen could probably hit 5% if he gets a bit of attention. Republican turnout will probably be low, so it's probable that Feinstein will face a Dem. Feinstein versus a no-name Dem could be interesting. Eisen might have a bit of an advantage over another no-name Dem because he calls himself an independent. Not that that will let him win in a one-on-one with Feinstein, but he might do a bit better.

[I’m not Stu]

We aren't likely to get a strong Dem running against Feinstein. Stokes went nowhere (2% or so) in 2016. Eisen could probably hit 5% if he gets a bit of attention. Republican turnout will probably be low, so it's probable that Feinstein will face a Dem. Feinstein versus a no-name Dem could be interesting. Eisen might have a bit of an advantage over another no-name Dem because he calls himself an independent. Not that that will let him win in a one-on-one with Feinstein, but he might do a bit better.

Why would GOP turnout be low? I just thought Republicans were far too small in numbers to have a chance to win in California. I thought GOP turnout would be higher than Democratic turnout in a midterm, but Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans. I think the race will be D vs D, with Feinstein easily winning.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

We aren't likely to get a strong Dem running against Feinstein. Stokes went nowhere (2% or so) in 2016. Eisen could probably hit 5% if he gets a bit of attention. Republican turnout will probably be low, so it's probable that Feinstein will face a Dem. Feinstein versus a no-name Dem could be interesting. Eisen might have a bit of an advantage over another no-name Dem because he calls himself an independent. Not that that will let him win in a one-on-one with Feinstein, but he might do a bit better.

Why would GOP turnout be low? I just thought Republicans were far too small in numbers to have a chance to win in California. I thought GOP turnout would be higher than Democratic turnout in a midterm, but Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans. I think the race will be D vs D, with Feinstein easily winning.

Republicans have been having issues recruiting high profile candidates to run for statewide offices. 2018 is looking to be a good year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans. Dems don't always do poorly in midterms (see 2006 for a Dem surge). Democratic turnout in the special elections in KS and MT has been up (something like 90% of Clinton voters turned out compared to about 65% of Trump voters). Not sure that that will hold, but I don't see Trump's popularity suddenly shooting up.

Prop 187 marked the beginning of the end for Republicans in CA. Arnold was an aberration thanks to Gray Davis, but otherwise, there have been very few successful Republicans in part because 187 turned off a lot of potential voters.

[I’m not Stu]

We aren't likely to get a strong Dem running against Feinstein. Stokes went nowhere (2% or so) in 2016. Eisen could probably hit 5% if he gets a bit of attention. Republican turnout will probably be low, so it's probable that Feinstein will face a Dem. Feinstein versus a no-name Dem could be interesting. Eisen might have a bit of an advantage over another no-name Dem because he calls himself an independent. Not that that will let him win in a one-on-one with Feinstein, but he might do a bit better.

Why would GOP turnout be low? I just thought Republicans were far too small in numbers to have a chance to win in California. I thought GOP turnout would be higher than Democratic turnout in a midterm, but Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans. I think the race will be D vs D, with Feinstein easily winning.

Republicans have been having issues recruiting high profile candidates to run for statewide offices. 2018 is looking to be a good year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans. Dems don't always do poorly in midterms (see 2006 for a Dem surge). Democratic turnout in the special elections in KS and MT has been up (something like 90% of Clinton voters turned out compared to about 65% of Trump voters). Not sure that that will hold, but I don't see Trump's popularity suddenly shooting up.

Prop 187 marked the beginning of the end for Republicans in CA. Arnold was an aberration thanks to Gray Davis, but otherwise, there have been very few successful Republicans in part because 187 turned off a lot of potential voters.

Does this mean Tester has a good shot to win another term in MT?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

We aren't likely to get a strong Dem running against Feinstein. Stokes went nowhere (2% or so) in 2016. Eisen could probably hit 5% if he gets a bit of attention. Republican turnout will probably be low, so it's probable that Feinstein will face a Dem. Feinstein versus a no-name Dem could be interesting. Eisen might have a bit of an advantage over another no-name Dem because he calls himself an independent. Not that that will let him win in a one-on-one with Feinstein, but he might do a bit better.

Why would GOP turnout be low? I just thought Republicans were far too small in numbers to have a chance to win in California. I thought GOP turnout would be higher than Democratic turnout in a midterm, but Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans. I think the race will be D vs D, with Feinstein easily winning.

Republicans have been having issues recruiting high profile candidates to run for statewide offices. 2018 is looking to be a good year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans. Dems don't always do poorly in midterms (see 2006 for a Dem surge). Democratic turnout in the special elections in KS and MT has been up (something like 90% of Clinton voters turned out compared to about 65% of Trump voters). Not sure that that will hold, but I don't see Trump's popularity suddenly shooting up.

Prop 187 marked the beginning of the end for Republicans in CA. Arnold was an aberration thanks to Gray Davis, but otherwise, there have been very few successful Republicans in part because 187 turned off a lot of potential voters.

Does this mean Tester has a good shot to win another term in MT?

I wouldn't count him out. 2020 for the governor's seat could be a bit more up in the air though. I'd say that incumbency will probably help Tester in 2018.

[BuckeyeNut]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

[I’m not Stu]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

I think she will be a Senator for life just like Byrd. I wonder what a D vs D runoff would look like. I think Feinstein could sweep every county, or at least almost every county.

[Mr. Smith]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

I think she will be a Senator for life just like Byrd. I wonder what a D vs D runoff would look like. I think Feinstein could sweep every county, or at least almost every county.

I could see a case for Santa Cruz, Humboldt, or Mendocino voting against her.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

She's gonna pull a Byrd.

I think she will be a Senator for life just like Byrd. I wonder what a D vs D runoff would look like. I think Feinstein could sweep every county, or at least almost every county.

I could see a case for Santa Cruz, Humboldt, or Mendocino voting against her.

Also, maybe some of the super Republican counties who would vote for a yellow dog Republican over a Democrat. That's why I think Eisen could win some of these counties if he made the run off. Voters see that he's not a Dem and pick him.