PPP: Heller trails 'Democratic opponent' by 7
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  PPP: Heller trails 'Democratic opponent' by 7
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Author Topic: PPP: Heller trails 'Democratic opponent' by 7  (Read 1409 times)
heatcharger
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« on: June 19, 2017, 11:20:25 AM »

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/351703448/NevadaResults-06-14-17

Heller 39%
Democratic opponent 46%
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2017, 11:25:38 AM »

While this is a good sign for Democrats, don't put too much value into this. Democrats don't have much of a bench in Nevada, though a good candidate could definitely step before next year.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2017, 11:33:45 AM »

Very good sign. Heller could not even manage to grasp 46% of the vote in 2012, good luck, he will need it.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2017, 11:46:04 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2017, 11:47:41 AM by MT Treasurer »

Very good sign. Heller could not even manage to grasp 46% of the vote in 2012, good luck, he will need it.

B-b-but muh incumbency! Muh weak D bench! Wink

The thing is, even if Heller barely ekes it out in 2018, he's basically destined to lose in 2024 after 8 years of Trump or with a Democratic incumbent president running for reelection. So it might be best for the GOP to triage this seat if things aren't looking good in NV.

I think IN and MO are the only seats more likely to flip. Lean/Likely D for now.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2017, 02:41:02 PM »

Trump's weak numbers will doom Heller. Not that he was a strong incumbent to begin with.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2017, 10:08:16 PM »

Heller was f**ked the moment Trump got elected. Not saying he's done, but winning this election seems really unlikely.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2017, 10:09:21 PM »

This as well:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/876966023362039808

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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2017, 10:12:40 PM »

The southwest will have some of the flukiest election results in the country.

Calling it now.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2017, 10:46:55 PM »

Democratic opponent 2018!

Anyway, I don't see Heller getting Blanched, but my current guess is that he loses by about 5%. He's probably going to be facing a stronger opponent than he did in 2012, and despite the belief of some, NV's not getting any redder.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2017, 11:23:44 PM »

I see Rosen winning 50-47, by 3 or 4 or so.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2017, 11:44:12 PM »

Let me know when generic ____ ever exists.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2017, 11:46:35 PM »

Let me know when generic ____ ever exists.

Rosen is expected to formally announce pretty soon (link)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2017, 11:57:10 PM »

Rosen is a great recruit
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Kamala
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2017, 06:36:40 AM »

Democratic opponent 2018!

Anyway, I don't see Heller getting Blanched, but my current guess is that he loses by about 5%. He's probably going to be facing a stronger opponent than he did in 2012, and despite the belief of some, NV's not getting any redder.

Rosen doesn't even have to carry her own district to win statewide. Of course, that would pretty much guarantee a statewide win in and of itself, but the real fight is going to be over whether Heller can get a decent margin out of Washoe County and carry the NV-3 portion of Clark County by a respectable margin. Rosen complicates the latter part of that.

That's why I was afraid of Titus winning the nomination, because it would just solidify the Las Vegas-base of Democratic voters, without going out for additional votes in swing constituencies, like NV-03. Rosen (or Kihuen, for that matter) at least add some geographic variety to the Democratic Party in Nevada.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2017, 10:30:17 AM »

Let me know when generic ____ ever exists.

Rosen is expected to formally announce pretty soon (link)

hes not a generic ___ hes a person, my point was that generic D or R doesn't exist because candidates all have records, baggage, wedges, etc.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2017, 02:12:58 PM »

Heller just voted to move forward on the repeal bill, lol, he's put the second to last nail in his coffin for winning Nevada again in 2018, last one would be voting to repeal.
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