New Study Shows What Really Happened in the 2016 Election

[uti2]

New Study Shows What Really Happened in the 2016 Election

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/new-study-shows-what-really-happened-in-the-2016-election.html

The conclusion of the study: Swing voters tend to be socially/culturally conservative, and economically liberal.

Someone like Kasich/Huntsman/Martinez fits this category. Trump sort of fits this classification too, which is why he consistently won moderates in the primaries.

Bernie and Hillary supporters are mostly the same, except on trade and on confidence in the political system. Putting up a hard-right pro-trade tea partyer that wants to cut David Koch's net tax liability to near zero by slashing the capital gains tax to almost nothing is a great way for republicans to win these voters over and prove that the system is not rigged? Perhaps you might want to take a step back and check the logic of that assumption?

[Arbitrage1980]

Interesting study. Since Bill Clinton left the White House, the Democrats have been steadily moving leftward on economic issues. Now, they are pretty much a quasi-Socialist party. After all, an actual socialist won 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 Democratic primary.

Social/identity encompasses issues such as illegal immigration and radical Islam, key issues that propelled Trump to the victory. The typical Trump voter is definitely not a Romney type fiscal conservative and does not want a major rollback of core safety net such as social security, medicare, medicaid. But they also reject socialism, high taxes, wealth redistribution, and onerous regulations. Of course, there is a contradiction inherent in this viewpoint as the New Deal and Great Society programs are essentially redistribution under a different name.

[catographer]

Interesting study. Since Bill Clinton left the White House, the Democrats have been steadily moving leftward on economic issues. Now, they are pretty much a quasi-Socialist party. After all, an actual socialist won 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 Democratic primary.

Social/identity encompasses issues such as illegal immigration and radical Islam, key issues that propelled Trump to the victory. The typical Trump voter is definitely not a Romney type fiscal conservative and does not want a major rollback of core safety net such as social security, medicare, medicaid. But they also reject socialism, high taxes, wealth redistribution, and onerous regulations. Of course, there is a contradiction inherent in this viewpoint as the New Deal and Great Society programs are essentially redistribution under a different name.

As many Democrats have pointed out, and it's true, Social Security and Medicare are socialist. GOP supports a little bit of socialism, just like how the main center-right parties of European nations all support their countries' respective welfare states.

[catographer]

Absolutely fascinating study though. Maybe the first time (at least I've seen) that we've identified the political leanings of the American electorate. Americans run the gamut on cultural issues, but we are fundamentally a centrist/center-left country in a global sense. We have a welfare state to a certain degree that conservatives and liberals alike support, we accept government's role in providing social services and economic assistance during recessions. I'd love to see similar charts for other elections, and perhaps other nations too. I assume that electorates in western Europe are for the most part further left than ours, whereas maybe eastern European and Middle Eastern electorates are more to the right.

[libertpaulian]

Absolutely fascinating study though. Maybe the first time (at least I've seen) that we've identified the political leanings of the American electorate. Americans run the gamut on cultural issues, but we are fundamentally a centrist/center-left country in a global sense. We have a welfare state to a certain degree that conservatives and liberals alike support, we accept government's role in providing social services and economic assistance during recessions. I'd love to see similar charts for other elections, and perhaps other nations too. I assume that electorates in western Europe are for the most part further left than ours, whereas maybe eastern European and Middle Eastern electorates are more to the right.

We tend to follow the Anglo-Saxon version of the European social model.  Some states, however, follow the Nordic or Continental model.

[Sumner 1868]

What are they defining as "cultural" issues? As in the usual suspects (Roe, affirmative action, guns) or the somewhat newer panic over Islam? Or both?

[RI]

What are they defining as "cultural" issues? As in the usual suspects (Roe, affirmative action, guns) or the somewhat newer panic over Islam? Or both?

The study separates out traditional moral issues like abortion/gay marriage from Islam, racial issues, and immigration. Obama-Trump voters were more conservative on the latter than the former, but they weren't exactly liberal on the former either.

[Mr. Morden]

For me, the interesting thing here was the divide between Clinton and Sanders voters being not on issues as such, but on their "perception of America":



https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/20/15830316/clinton-sanders-issues-rigged

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[Mr. Smith]

New Study Shows What Really Happened in the 2016 Election

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/new-study-shows-what-really-happened-in-the-2016-election.html

The conclusion of the study: Swing voters tend to be socially/culturally conservative, and economically liberal.

Someone like Kasich/Huntsman/Martinez fits this category. Trump sort of fits this classification too, which is why he consistently won moderates in the primaries.

Bernie and Hillary supporters are mostly the same, except on trade and on confidence in the political system. Putting up a hard-right pro-trade tea partyer that wants to cut David Koch's net tax liability to near zero by slashing the capital gains tax to almost nothing is a great way for republicans to win these voters over and prove that the system is not rigged? Perhaps you might want to take a step back and check the logic of that assumption?

And yet Romney won the Independent vote in 2012.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

While overall I'm not sure I disagree with their conclusions, I call B.S. on the chart and the idea that there aren't many fiscal-conservative/social-liberals out there.  How are they defining the center of each axis?  There's like 100 red and blue dots on the far-left of this spectrum but only one dot on the far-right?  The average Republican is economically centrist, or if you take the median, slightly center-left?  Come on.