MT SEN 2018: Does Tester win?

[I’m not Stu]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

[windjammer]

Depends on a lot of things. First of all: the republican candidate.

[Cactus Jack]

At this juncture, I'd say it looks likely. He's a powerful incumbent and the Republican bench has thinned dramatically after Fox's exit.

[I’m not Stu]

At this juncture, I'd say it looks likely. He's a powerful incumbent and the Republican bench has thinned dramatically after Fox's exit.

I think so too. Fox would have been the most likely candidate to defeat Tester.

[I’m not Stu]

He's probably the most overrated Democrat running in 2018, honestly. I don't think the Democrats' overconfidence here is warranted at all.

There's definitely a chance Tester loses, but I would still give him a slight edge with Fox not running.

[UncleSam]

Honestly Tester doesn't strike me as the sort to survive the increasing polarization of deep red states, even in a good Democratic year. He just can't sell his record as being a moderate one, unlike Heitkamp or Manchin or Donnelly. He's a good politician but the same forces that will drag down Heller will drag down Tester imo unless Trump finds a way to alienate a large chunk of his base, in which case no GOP seat will be safe and no Democrat will be in danger.

[I’m not Stu]

He's probably the most overrated Democrat running in 2018, honestly. I don't think the Democrats' overconfidence here is warranted at all.

There's definitely a chance Tester loses, but I would still give him a slight edge with Fox not running.

Fox was quite overrated anyway and there is no way to know for sure how he would have done against Tester (I have a gut feeling that he wasn't even the most electable Republican). Really, this kind of "Now that Fox isn't running, Tester is heavily favored" analysis is pretty lazy. You'd expect better from Atlas.

I don't think Tester should be heavily favored, just slightly favored with Fox not running.

[jamestroll]

I am not that knowledgeable about Montana politics but I would not over think the results of the special election too much. The body slam came way to late in the campaign and Qusit was an awful candidate.  But Gianforte could well be gone after 2018 either in primary or general.

Tester is favored by a small bit at this point. He is in trouble obviously tho.

[Free Bird]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

From everyone's favorite rag
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/27/wake-up-liberals-there-will-be-no-2018-blue-wave-no-democratic-majority-and-no-impeachment/

[jamestroll]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

From everyone's favorite rag
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/27/wake-up-liberals-there-will-be-no-2018-blue-wave-no-democratic-majority-and-no-impeachment/

OH YEA 2018 IS A MIDTERM!!!! THAT MEANS DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE 10+ SENATE SEATS AND DOZENS OF HOUSE SEATS BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED IN 2010 and 2014!!!!!

[I’m not Stu]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

From everyone's favorite rag
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/27/wake-up-liberals-there-will-be-no-2018-blue-wave-no-democratic-majority-and-no-impeachment/

OH YEA 2018 IS A MIDTERM!!!! THAT MEANS DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE 10+ SENATE SEATS AND DOZENS OF HOUSE SEATS BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED IN 2010 and 2014!!!!!

That was under a Democratic President. Democrats had a surge in 2006. I think Democrats can hold on to MT, OH, PA, WV, FL, MI, and WI. I think McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Donnelly lose. Heller has a decent chance to lose. Flake has a slight chance to lose. I predict a Republican net gain, but not a major GOP wave that takes out a high number of Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

I am like 99.9% sure that Tester is in big trouble, but if the forum and all the MT Democrats I "know" are right and he wins easily, I'll be fully prepared to eat crow. Many people think that Rosendale and Olszewski are destined to lose Mike Taylor-style, but IMO the state is wayyy too polarized for there to be a 2002 redux. Also, Tester doesn't have nearly as much crossover appeal or charisma as Heitkamp or Manchin, plus both of them are much more popular than Tester. Yes, the state is Democratic-friendly down-ballot, but the right Republican can definitely win a Senate race in a midterm year. Tester needs his liberal base in Western MT to turn out in record numbers but at the same time he can't afford to alienate any Republican-leaning crossover voters in the East (and given his voting record, I doubt he will get many to begin with). It's a fairly narrow path, and I doubt Eastern MT will be nearly as friendly to him next year as it was in 2012. Only time will tell, though. I also don't see any evidence other than that weird Morning Consult poll that Tester is very popular, or at least more popular than Bullock.

Right now, I believe neither party can take the race for granted (and no candidate has the advantage). If I had to bet money on it, I'd probably go with the Republicans, even if it sounds like I'm being bold here.

I also believe Daines is much more vulnerable than most people here assume. Generally I would advise against making hasty, overconfident predictions. Creating an aura of invincibility around candidates like Tester, but also Daines and Fox (if he runs for governor) can backfire spectacularly.

Daines, like Tester, is also not invincible. Could Steve Bullock beat Daines in 2020?

[Heisenberg]

I think Tester probably loses narrowly. Eastern MT has moved more and more to the right since 2002, and polarization has gone up. No way will Tester win Yellowstone County next year. Still, neither side can take this for granted, and Montana will have two close, hard-fought Senate races in 2018 and 2020.

[Xing]

If it were a Clinton midterm, I think he'd be the underdog, but since it's not clear who his opponent will be, and he's seen by many as more moderate than the average Senate Democrat (perhaps that's not saying much in the eyes of a conservative), I'd give him a slight edge right now. I'd rate this race Toss-Up/Tilt D.

[I’m not Stu]

If it were a Clinton midterm, I think he'd be the underdog, but since it's not clear who his opponent will be, and he's seen by many as more moderate than the average Senate Democrat (perhaps that's not saying much in the eyes of a conservative), I'd give him a slight edge right now. I'd rate this race Toss-Up/Tilt D.

Same. I don't think the people here realize that "slightly favored" does not equal "OMG Tester is going to win by Baucus style margins!!!", but red herrings will be red herrings. Also, if people want to assume 2018 will be like 2014 and 2016 all over again, whatever

Exactly. I say tilt D.

[Pericles]

He's not invulnerable but will probably win, especially if the midterms go in the direction they're currently trending, and he doesn't seem like the most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tester is the media darling, he spearheaded candidates in 2016 but should of got Sestak in that PA senate race. Other than that, he can do no wrong.

[Sir Mohamed]

Most likely. IN, MO and ND are more in danger for Dems.

[Sir Mohamed]

Most likely.

Care to explain why? I mean, everyone is predicting that Tester will win (and apparently that polarization will no longer be a thing in 2018), but I'd like to hear at least one explanation. Also.. why is Heitkamp so much more vulnerable than Tester?

Compared to to ND, MT is relatively elastic. Dems won four consecutive gubernatorial elections, although they lost each (parallel) presidential election except for 2008 by a huge margin. This and the fact that it's a Trump midterm and he has the advantage of incumbency lead me to the conclusion that Tester has a decent chance of winning reelection. ND seems to be less elastic, though I wouldn't rule it out that Heitkamp pulls it off.

[Kamala]

Hey MT Treasurer, this is kind of random, but had Schweitzer beaten Burns in 2000, would he still be serving today? Would he have had an easier reelection than Tester?

[MT Treasurer]

Hey MT Treasurer, this is kind of random, but had Schweitzer beaten Burns in 2000, would he still be serving today? Would he have had an easier reelection than Tester?

I have no doubt that he would still be serving today. He probably wins by 30 points in 2006 and then by 13-15 or so in 2012.

Not sure how he would do in 2018. Probably better than Tester, but by how much is hard to tell. I feel like the anti-establishment mood would hurt him if he were running for a fourth term, and I believe much of his crossover appeal would be gone by election day. I'd probably still rate it Tilt D (or maybe Lean D, depending on polling and the national environment). Senator Schweitzer would have a much harder time than Governor Schweitzer IMO, and creating an aura of inevitability around supposedly unbeatable politicians (like Evan Bayh and Tommy Thompson) can backfire.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I do wonder if the dems nail a big recruit to run against GG in 2018 if that will help Tester as they will be both running statewide with the race and also Bullock in the gov mansion