Should we consider IA and OH lean Republican states in the 2020 election?

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

(discuss)

[Bidenworth2020]

Yes and no(Iowa yes, Ohio not as much)

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Yes.

[RINO Tom]

I'm actually more inclined to say Ohio ... Republicans were doing JUST fine in Ohio before Trump or "Trumpism" or whatever realignment fantasies we're currently entertaining.  Iowa is and likely will remain more swingy.

[Xing]

Lean R, sure. Safe R, no.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Yeah

[TheSaint250]

Depends on the nominee. Trump (with average approval ratings) yes, Pence only Iowa (possibly)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are forgoing the Iowa Gov and Ohio Gov races that tells you something about 2020.  But, with Trump, along with MI, WI, PA and VA, either of those states can fall to the Democratic nominee.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ohio should be considered likely R unless Trump gets impeached. Iowa is Lean R, unless Trump gets impeached, in which case it moves to likely R (because Pence is more popular with conservatives there).

[Skunk]

Depends on the Dem candidate.

[TML]

I personally think that if the Democratic nominee is on track to win fewer than 320 EVs, these two states will be won by the Republican nominee. If the Democratic nominee is on track to win 320+ EVs, then he or she will have a legitimate shot at winning either or both of these states.

[BushKerry04]

It depends on the economy. If Ohio experiences a renaissance of manufacturing jobs, then yes.

[AtorBoltox]

No, they're safe R

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yes, definitely. The Democrats definitely have the burden of proof to show they can compete there after the walloping they took in those two states in 2016... particularly Iowa since I don't think Dems hold a single statewide office there and have a grand total of one congressman there out of six total, and that one in a district Donald Trump won.

They both start out at Lean GOP, and Virginia and a Colorado start out at Lean D.

[Kamala]

Yes, definitely. The Democrats definitely have the burden of proof to show they can compete there after the walloping they took in those two states in 2016... particularly Iowa since I don't think Dems hold a single statewide office there and have a grand total of one congressman there out of six total, and that one in a district Donald Trump won.

They both start out at Lean GOP, and Virginia and a Colorado start out at Lean D.

Iowa Atty General and Treasurer are Dems.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

Unfortunately, I believe that Iowa and Ohio will have to be considered lean Republican states in the 2020 election.

[Hammy]

Yes. I'd honestly be willing to call Iowa safe R at this point.

[The Arizonan]

Both states are lean Republican at this point.

[Sumner 1868]

It's weird so many on this forum think Iowa is "safe R" now. Why? Any Democratic messaging that wins back the industrial areas of Ohio return to fold will them back in Iowa as well, and the rural swing was because the state had it's worst fall in farmland value since the crisis of the 1980s rather then some creeping ultraconservatism. Are people just not interested in looking past 2016?

A few posters on a similar thread have given the usual lazy excuse of "white rural" causing the swing somehow, and I recall one even said that because Nebraska also has corn Iowa must be Republican.

[JerryArkansas]

It's weird so many on this forum think Iowa is "safe R" now. Why? Any Democratic messaging that wins back the industrial areas of Ohio return to fold will them back in Iowa as well, and the rural swing was because the state had it's worst fall in farmland value since the crisis of the 1980s rather then some creeping ultraconservatism. Are people just not interested in looking past 2016?

A few posters on a similar thread have given the usual lazy excuse of "white rural" causing the swing somehow, and I recall one even said that because Nebraska also has corn Iowa must be Republican.

Because this state and others in the Midwest are now starting to like and buy the argument of you vs. them( Being a visible minority, LGBT, immigrate).  The only way to counter that is to go back on some of those positions, which would destroy what apathetic support these groups have for the party left.

[Sumner 1868]

It's weird so many on this forum think Iowa is "safe R" now. Why? Any Democratic messaging that wins back the industrial areas of Ohio return to fold will them back in Iowa as well, and the rural swing was because the state had it's worst fall in farmland value since the crisis of the 1980s rather then some creeping ultraconservatism. Are people just not interested in looking past 2016?

A few posters on a similar thread have given the usual lazy excuse of "white rural" causing the swing somehow, and I recall one even said that because Nebraska also has corn Iowa must be Republican.

Because this state and others in the Midwest are now starting to like and buy the argument of you vs. them( Being a visible minority, LGBT, immigrate).  The only way to counter that is to go back on some of those positions, which would destroy what apathetic support these groups have for the party left.

[Lachi]

No, they're safe R

LOL

[JerryArkansas]

It's weird so many on this forum think Iowa is "safe R" now. Why? Any Democratic messaging that wins back the industrial areas of Ohio return to fold will them back in Iowa as well, and the rural swing was because the state had it's worst fall in farmland value since the crisis of the 1980s rather then some creeping ultraconservatism. Are people just not interested in looking past 2016?

A few posters on a similar thread have given the usual lazy excuse of "white rural" causing the swing somehow, and I recall one even said that because Nebraska also has corn Iowa must be Republican.

Because this state and others in the Midwest are now starting to like and buy the argument of you vs. them( Being a visible minority, LGBT, immigrate).  The only way to counter that is to go back on some of those positions, which would destroy what apathetic support these groups have for the party left.

Sorry, I don't subscribe to the notion that these people are going to vote for a progressive agenda which features social justice for all Americans. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, they're safe R

LOL

Safe R, guys!!! This state is safely Republican! It has always voted Republican and will always vote Republican!!!

[Sumner 1868]

It's weird so many on this forum think Iowa is "safe R" now. Why? Any Democratic messaging that wins back the industrial areas of Ohio return to fold will them back in Iowa as well, and the rural swing was because the state had it's worst fall in farmland value since the crisis of the 1980s rather then some creeping ultraconservatism. Are people just not interested in looking past 2016?

A few posters on a similar thread have given the usual lazy excuse of "white rural" causing the swing somehow, and I recall one even said that because Nebraska also has corn Iowa must be Republican.

Because this state and others in the Midwest are now starting to like and buy the argument of you vs. them( Being a visible minority, LGBT, immigrate).  The only way to counter that is to go back on some of those positions, which would destroy what apathetic support these groups have for the party left.

Sorry, I don't subscribe to the notion that these people are going to vote for a progressive agenda which features social justice for all Americans.