GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[Virginiá]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

He needs to find a way to win.

[Matty]

Will we be getting leaked results like in the primary?

[Progressive]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

He needs to find a way to win.

It also goes with this narrative--Democrats can't get nice things.

Think about the Scott Brown election in MA for example. I wasn't even old enough to vote yet in 2010 but I still remember the sting of Coakley losing to Brown. If I recall correctly, Brown did not even squeak by. He won solidly by like 5 points ~100,000 votes. That's a 17 point swing from a state that had a D+12 PVI in 2010. Many of us are waiting for Trump to have that embarrassing moment. I think, pretty objectively, even among many Republicans I know (incl. Trump supporters), no one deserves a humbling moment more than Trump does.

[Virginiá]

Democrats didn't spend millions here just to make it competitive or come close. Trump only won this district by 1, and he is incredibly unpopular nationally. A loss here would be a setback for them, much more so than KS and MT. I guess you could say the same for the GOP.

Ossoff should win tonight, though, unless something very weird has happened in politics.

Well think about it like this - If Ossoff wins by just 1 point (or something like that), does that actually mean more than if he just lost by 1? Put aside symbolism and narrative stuff, in terms of raw trends, does that extra point actually mean much? If Democrats have already managed to swing this kind of district this far to the left - a district that went for Romney and other Republicans in the past by +23 pts -/+, how can a couple extra winning points matter so much, again, aside from the narrative it would create?

It's not like it would be some fatal blow to recruiting or anything - Trump and the terrible numbers Republicans and himself have been posting have been largely driving that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voting extended 30 minutes at the two DeKalb precincts that had problems this morning: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/after-mix-two-dekalb-voting-sites-will-remain-open-until/pbjsDnhvF4J5HNCFIzhX8M/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reopening registration for the runoff may make the difference if the race is very close:

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[Person Man]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

He needs to find a way to win.

It also goes with this narrative--Democrats can't get nice things.

Think about the Scott Brown election in MA for example. I wasn't even old enough to vote yet in 2010 but I still remember the sting of Coakley losing to Brown. If I recall correctly, Brown did not even squeak by. He won solidly by like 5 points ~100,000 votes. That's a 17 point swing from a state that had a D+12 PVI in 2010. Many of us are waiting for Trump to have that embarrassing moment. I think, pretty objectively, even among many Republicans I know (incl. Trump supporters), no one deserves a humbling moment more than Trump does.

I just want to see the twitter trigger tantrum. It will make covfefe seem sterile as a breeding ground for memes.

[Roronoa D. Law]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

He needs to find a way to win.

It also goes with this narrative--Democrats can't get nice things.

Think about the Scott Brown election in MA for example. I wasn't even old enough to vote yet in 2010 but I still remember the sting of Coakley losing to Brown. If I recall correctly, Brown did not even squeak by. He won solidly by like 5 points ~100,000 votes. That's a 17 point swing from a state that had a D+12 PVI in 2010. Many of us are waiting for Trump to have that embarrassing moment. I think, pretty objectively, even among many Republicans I know (incl. Trump supporters), no one deserves a humbling moment more than Trump does.

Republican are better at turning out plus Democrats are not as partisan compared to Republican and more likely to do 3rd party protest vote. You hear Democrats all the time say they could see themselves voting for Kasich or Collins you never hear that from Republicans. If Jim Webb some how had won the nomination he wouldn't have did any better than HRC with GOP votes. Its the DNC problem to find out why. Jon Ossoff has run a perfect campaign so far compared to Handel.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well, Romney isn't president now. Trump is, and he only won the district by 1. But you are right, this seat is more about the narrative anyway. My point was that I seriously doubt that many Democrats will be happy if Ossoff loses only by 1 or 2 instead of 10. They have set their expectations so high that anything other than a win would be a disappointment IMO.

Correct.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This election is very important in trying to understand how Democrats can successfully win over the affluent college educated suburban reluctant Trump cohort. A lot of the campaigns in GOP districts near and around Orange County are predicated on winning enough of this demographic over to win the races here.

[Gass3268]

Current traffic picture in the area (via Nate Silver):

[GeorgiaModerate]

When it rains, everyone in Atlanta forgets how to drive.

[Gass3268]

[The_Doctor]

Well, Romney isn't president now. Trump is, and he only won the district by 1. But you are right, this seat is more about the narrative anyway. My point was that I seriously doubt that many Democrats will be happy if Ossoff loses only by 1 or 2 instead of 10. They have set their expectations so high that anything other than a win would be a disappointment IMO.

However, isn't it significant if Ossoff finishes with 49% of the vote or something, and implies a sea shift in the college educated electorate?

[publicunofficial]

Has there ever been a more "Generic D" candidate than Ossoff? I feel like the DCCC would love to clone him and run him in every district if they could.

[Crumpets]

This is true, but that was in large part due to Republican votes dropping off more than winning over new Democrats. Enthusiasm is key more than persuadability in these kinds of elections.

[Person Man]

It isn't enough to have Ossoffs in congress. We have to have Quists. That's the benefit about being unpopular in the beltway. You can run both Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts candidates. One that appeals to people in the professions and others that appeal to tradespeople.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Grain of salt but I keep hearing on Twitter DeKalb county is getting high turnouts

[Hydera]

Just some update on the weather. Its been raining in most of the district. However the westernmost area which is one of the strongest GOP areas has yet to rain which benefits Handel.

[Dr. Arch]

Imagine how hilarious it would be if the Democrats lost GA-06 but won SC-05, lol.

Anyway, links to the NYTimes and AP results plz?

[Virginiá]

Imagine how hilarious it would be if the Democrats lost GA-06 but won SC-05, lol.

Anyway, links to the NYTimes and AP results plz?

NYTimes results:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-congressional-runoff-ossoff-handel

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just some update on the weather. Its been raining in most of the district. However the westernmost area which is one of the strongest GOP areas has yet to rain which benefits Handel.

The heavy rain seems to be finally moving away from the district.  Things should be much better for people trying to vote after work.

Anecdote: a co-worker went at lunch to vote in Alpharetta and reports that there was hardly anyone at his precinct.

[Progressive]

Purely anecdotal and probably stupid dribble on my end, but:

1. Earlier this AM many of the Pro-Handel/GOP/Trump people on Twitter were writing about how funny it will be when he "loses his Ossoff," "Lossoff loses," etc.

2. A lot of people on Twitter now posting about Ossoff busing in "illegal voters," the seat and victory was bought by Soros, etc.

So I guess I'm wondering whether there were Tweets/news reports about favorable ground for Ossoff during the day?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Purely anecdotal and probably stupid dribble on my end, but:

1. Earlier this AM many of the Pro-Handel/GOP/Trump people on Twitter were writing about how funny it will be when he "loses his Ossoff," "Lossoff loses," etc.

2. A lot of people on Twitter now posting about Ossoff busing in "illegal voters," the seat and victory was bought by Soros, etc.

So I guess I'm wondering whether there were Tweets/news reports about favorable ground for Ossoff during the day?

Anyone who understands Atlanta traffic, especially in bad weather, knows this is clearly infeasible.