GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread
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  GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread
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Author Topic: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread  (Read 68604 times)
BudgieForce
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« Reply #175 on: June 20, 2017, 06:14:36 PM »

I think Dems just need a moral victory after 2014 and 2016. GA06 would provide that.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #176 on: June 20, 2017, 06:14:42 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s


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Progressive
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« Reply #177 on: June 20, 2017, 06:15:36 PM »

Is Decision Desk not working for anyone else?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #178 on: June 20, 2017, 06:16:56 PM »

Nate Cohn estimated 266k votes....
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kyc0705
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« Reply #179 on: June 20, 2017, 06:17:06 PM »


No offence to Nate and 538...but his ''models'' were wrong about everything in 2016 and not even in just politics...they blew a bunch of sports predictions (and by bunch I mean all)

Umm...you do realize that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are two different people, right?  Cohn is affiliated with the New York Times, not 538.


It's all the same thing. They were all repeatedly wrong about so many things with their ''models.'' Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history

[citation needed]
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bilaps
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« Reply #180 on: June 20, 2017, 06:17:28 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s




It's a trump plus 1 district.

And you lied about dems. This was nationalized race from the start.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #181 on: June 20, 2017, 06:17:56 PM »


Even without the flooding, that would be an unexpectedly super high total.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #182 on: June 20, 2017, 06:18:26 PM »

Is Decision Desk not working for anyone else?

working for me...
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #183 on: June 20, 2017, 06:18:33 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s




It's a trump plus 1 district.

And you lied about dems. This was nationalized race from the start.

It was a +23 Romney district.
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Matty
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« Reply #184 on: June 20, 2017, 06:18:37 PM »

Wouldn't high turnout favor Handel?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #185 on: June 20, 2017, 06:19:08 PM »


Even without the flooding, that would be an unexpectedly super high total.

That would be 124K votes today.  There's no way that squares with the estimate someone posted from Fulton that they were expecting 36K.  I'm beginning to wonder if the 36K was a typo.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #186 on: June 20, 2017, 06:19:18 PM »


No offence to Nate and 538...but his ''models'' were wrong about everything in 2016 and not even in just politics...they blew a bunch of sports predictions (and by bunch I mean all)

Umm...you do realize that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are two different people, right?  Cohn is affiliated with the New York Times, not 538.


It's all the same thing. They were all repeatedly wrong about so many things with their ''models.'' Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #187 on: June 20, 2017, 06:19:51 PM »

Wouldn't high turnout favor Handel?

Yes, since Ossoff should lead the early vote and Handel needs to make up the gap today.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #188 on: June 20, 2017, 06:21:36 PM »

For our GA people - when do results begin coming in?
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bilaps
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« Reply #189 on: June 20, 2017, 06:21:49 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s




It's a trump plus 1 district.

And you lied about dems. This was nationalized race from the start.

It was a +23 Romney district.

so what??? obama won PA and MI for example, what that has to do with anything, things are changing obviously.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #190 on: June 20, 2017, 06:22:26 PM »

For our GA people - when do results begin coming in?

We're probably 20-30 minutes away.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #191 on: June 20, 2017, 06:22:29 PM »

For our GA people - when do results begin coming in?

Maybe 7:45ish.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #192 on: June 20, 2017, 06:22:53 PM »


Even without the flooding, that would be an unexpectedly super high total.

That would be 124K votes today.  There's no way that squares with the estimate someone posted from Fulton that they were expecting 36K.  I'm beginning to wonder if the 36K was a typo.
God, Cobb must be really high, then...
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Skunk
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« Reply #193 on: June 20, 2017, 06:22:57 PM »

Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history

Literary Digest's poll suggesting Alf Landon wins in a landslide is the biggest error, IMO.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #194 on: June 20, 2017, 06:23:37 PM »

How about dropping the discussion about polling errors in previous elections for now?  There's going to be plenty going on tonight to follow.
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Confused Democrat
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« Reply #195 on: June 20, 2017, 06:23:58 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s




It's a trump plus 1 district.

And you lied about dems. This was nationalized race from the start.

Let's ignore the entire history of GA-6 lol. It's been a ruby-red district for years, and hasn't elected a Democrat since the 70's.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #196 on: June 20, 2017, 06:25:10 PM »

Quote
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #197 on: June 20, 2017, 06:25:20 PM »

DDHQ says Fulton early vote (in person) expected around 7:45-8.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #198 on: June 20, 2017, 06:25:24 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2017, 06:27:02 PM by kyc0705 »


No offence to Nate and 538...but his ''models'' were wrong about everything in 2016 and not even in just politics...they blew a bunch of sports predictions (and by bunch I mean all)

Umm...you do realize that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are two different people, right?  Cohn is affiliated with the New York Times, not 538.


It's all the same thing. They were all repeatedly wrong about so many things with their ''models.'' Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history

[citation needed]

Quote
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Nate Silver is also the only pundit who correctly predicted all 50 state contests in 2012, and was one of the only pundits in 2016 warning that Clinton was not inevitable, and that Trump had definitive paths to victory in all the major swing states.

The 538 polling models are based on data received from polls. If the polls are wrong, the model is wrong. I fail to see how you think Silver is responsible for this, unless you are just now learning that he didn't personally conduct every single election poll.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #199 on: June 20, 2017, 06:25:43 PM »

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.



It will be.

The common line on thinking before this race became nationalized was that Democrats had no chance in GA-6. The DCCC was reluctant to even put money into this race before it got so popular.




this is flatout wrong with a flatout lie in between.

LOL!

I forgot that GA-6 was a lean Democrat district. /s




It's a trump plus 1 district.

And you lied about dems. This was nationalized race from the start.

It was a +23 Romney district.

so what??? obama won PA and MI for example, what that has to do with anything, things are changing obviously.

The district has been held safely by a republican since 1979. This is a district democrats didnt even bother to field a candidate in 2010. This has been, for all intents and purposes, a safe R district until 2016.
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