GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[kyc0705]

Take this with a grain of salt, obviously, but:

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I think Ossoff is going to win, but that tweet just reminds me of the SNL sketch about how suburban moms were supposed to swing Pennsylvania for Clinton.

[kyc0705]

Last minute reminder:

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  22s22 seconds ago
When we get the #GA06 early vote dump, expect them to be much worse for Ossoff than the 1st round. More Reps voted early in 2nd round

Please, this board will still lose its mind.

[kyc0705]

Any more Nate Cohn, et al. updates about turnout suggesting result?

Nate Cohn a few minutes ago..."the turnout model is live"

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-congressional-runoff-ossoff-handel?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

No offence to Nate and 538...but his ''models'' were wrong about everything in 2016 and not even in just politics...they blew a bunch of sports predictions (and by bunch I mean all)

Umm...you do realize that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are two different people, right?  Cohn is affiliated with the New York Times, not 538.

It's all the same thing. They were all repeatedly wrong about so many things with their ''models.'' Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history

[citation needed]

[kyc0705]

Any more Nate Cohn, et al. updates about turnout suggesting result?

Nate Cohn a few minutes ago..."the turnout model is live"

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-congressional-runoff-ossoff-handel?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

No offence to Nate and 538...but his ''models'' were wrong about everything in 2016 and not even in just politics...they blew a bunch of sports predictions (and by bunch I mean all)

Umm...you do realize that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are two different people, right?  Cohn is affiliated with the New York Times, not 538.

It's all the same thing. They were all repeatedly wrong about so many things with their ''models.'' Nate Silver currently holds the record for the largest polling prediction error in US election history

[citation needed]

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Nate Silver is also the only pundit who correctly predicted all 50 state contests in 2012, and was one of the only pundits in 2016 warning that Clinton was not inevitable, and that Trump had definitive paths to victory in all the major swing states.

The 538 polling models are based on data received from polls. If the polls are wrong, the model is wrong. I fail to see how you think Silver is responsible for this, unless you are just now learning that he didn't personally conduct every single election poll.

[kyc0705]

The New York Times site isn't showing up any votes yet, even though results are expected soon. I'm expecting the early vote to be heavily D.

Incorrect. Early in-person voting will likely swing Republican.

[kyc0705]

Looks bad for Ossoff.

Oof. That's a gut punch.

Oooooooh, he lost the early vote in Fulton, terrible sign.

You people are parodies of yourselves.

[kyc0705]

This is one of the ads that Parnell ran. If loving this is wrong, then I don't want to be right: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZsJjqDvSRw

[kyc0705]

He was one of the better candidates that they could have fielded for the race. That being said, this district was always going to be a hard sell. It was possible, but ultimately a combination of strategic failure on the part of Ossoff/his campaign as well as the attention attracted to the race proved insurmountable.