GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

I heard it's going to rain today in the 6th. Are they calling for bad rain or a drizzle?

Rain and thunderstorms steadily through the afternoon, but not an extremely hard rain.  At the moment  it's cloudy and pleasantly cool for a June morning in Atlanta.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sign on someone's front door in GA-06:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Minor hiccup at two locations in DeKalb.  They may seek an hour extension to voting hours. 

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/hiccup-dekalb-county-but-otherwise-smooth-for-6th-district-voting/pbjsDnhvF4J5HNCFIzhX8M/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout reports are easily the worst part of election day waiting.

Turnout reports will probably be even less useful than usual.  142K people already voted early.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Torrential rain and flash flood warnings in parts of the district, but other parts haven't seen any rain yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

lol

It's now expanding into the more Republican areas of Fulton and Cobb.  Just like early voting: the Democrats lead early, with the Republicans coming in later.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voting extended 30 minutes at the two DeKalb precincts that had problems this morning: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/after-mix-two-dekalb-voting-sites-will-remain-open-until/pbjsDnhvF4J5HNCFIzhX8M/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reopening registration for the runoff may make the difference if the race is very close:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

When it rains, everyone in Atlanta forgets how to drive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just some update on the weather. Its been raining in most of the district. However the westernmost area which is one of the strongest GOP areas has yet to rain which benefits Handel.

The heavy rain seems to be finally moving away from the district.  Things should be much better for people trying to vote after work.

Anecdote: a co-worker went at lunch to vote in Alpharetta and reports that there was hardly anyone at his precinct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Purely anecdotal and probably stupid dribble on my end, but:

1. Earlier this AM many of the Pro-Handel/GOP/Trump people on Twitter were writing about how funny it will be when he "loses his Ossoff," "Lossoff loses," etc.

2. A lot of people on Twitter now posting about Ossoff busing in "illegal voters," the seat and victory was bought by Soros, etc.

So I guess I'm wondering whether there were Tweets/news reports about favorable ground for Ossoff during the day?

Anyone who understands Atlanta traffic, especially in bad weather, knows this is clearly infeasible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

16,500 votes in Fulton County by 12:30. They are expecting 36,000 today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TopAtlantaNow/status/877243954001047556

36K in Fulton, which has over half the district's voters, doesn't seem like that much.  Wasn't overall Election Day turnout expected to be in the 100K neighborhood?

[GeorgiaModerate]

16,500 votes in Fulton County by 12:30. They are expecting 36,000 today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TopAtlantaNow/status/877243954001047556

Is that a good Handel or Ossoff county? anyone have benchmarks for them to win county by county?

It's a mix, with good areas for both.  Generally the more northern areas are R, the southern ones D (although this isn't absolute).  Regarding benchmarks, Gass3268 posted this upthread:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Thanks for the county breakdown. Now just to be clear, if Ossoff were to over perform in Fulton County let's say he wins 50.6% instead of the baseline 49.6% needed to win, that gives him some room to underperform elsewhere right?

Yes, assuming the vote is distributed among the counties the way the original source expects it to be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

16,500 votes in Fulton County by 12:30. They are expecting 36,000 today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TopAtlantaNow/status/877243954001047556

36K in Fulton, which has over half the district's voters, doesn't seem like that much.  Wasn't overall Election Day turnout expected to be in the 100K neighborhood?

I could be totally wrong, but this seems like bad news for Handel. She needs a robust Election Day turnout.

Let me correct myself here...actually Fulton doesn't have quite half of the registered voters in the district.  It's Fulton 48%, Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%.  And in the first round, the distribution of votes was Fulton 45%, Cobb 32%, DeKalb 23%.  However, in the early vote Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26%, Dekalb 21%.  So the trend then was for Fulton to have less of an Election Day turnout (relative to early vote) than the other two counties.  If that trend continues, then maybe today's turnout will be something close to 100K after all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

16,500 votes in Fulton County by 12:30. They are expecting 36,000 today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TopAtlantaNow/status/877243954001047556

36K in Fulton, which has over half the district's voters, doesn't seem like that much.  Wasn't overall Election Day turnout expected to be in the 100K neighborhood?

I could be totally wrong, but this seems like bad news for Handel. She needs a robust Election Day turnout.

Let me correct myself here...actually Fulton doesn't have quite half of the registered voters in the district.  It's Fulton 48%, Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%.  And in the first round, the distribution of votes was Fulton 45%, Cobb 32%, DeKalb 23%.  However, in the early vote Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26%, Dekalb 21%.  So the trend then was for Fulton to have less of an Election Day turnout (relative to early vote) than the other two counties.  If that trend continues, then maybe today's turnout will be something close to 100K after all.

And that would benefit whom and how much?

It's expected that Ossoff will lead in the EV and Handel will lead in today's voting.  So in theory, a lower turnout today should benefit Ossoff.  How much?  Good question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

13,787 votes in DeKalb as of 3:00, about 1,000 less than R1
https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/877262286053941250

DDHQ says it's about 1,000 more than R1, not less.

[GeorgiaModerate]

13,787 votes in DeKalb as of 3:00, about 1,000 less than R1
https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/877262286053941250

But with nearly three hours left. They will most likely exceed that especially in the last couple of hours when people leave work.

No, it's about 1K more than were cast at the same time of day in R1.  The total E-day vote for DeKalb in R1 was about 32K.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What time do the polls close

7pm Eastern, except for two precincts that will be open until 7:30 due to technical issues this morning.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Regardless of outcome, we're sure to see a ton of hot (and hyperbolic) takes. Should be amusing and/or really frustrating.

To keep things in perspective...

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[GeorgiaModerate]

What time do the polls close

7pm Eastern, except for two precincts that will be open until 7:30 due to technical issues this morning.

What does that mean for when the first results come in? 7:00 or 7:30?

We don't usually get results immediately when the polls close.  I'd guess 7:45 at the earliest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox is reporting that there is Presidential Election turnout amongst republicans.

Based on what?  There are no exit polls that I know of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why does everyone pronounce it "DeKab" even though it's Dekalb?

Jonathan Orr-Stav from Quora says:

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Yes, although it's the Georgia county/city that are pronounced weirdly. E.g., here in Brooklyn, which has a major avenue and a subway stop with the name, "DeKalb" is definitely pronounced with an 'L' sound by everyone (including that great arbiter of pronunciation, the subway announcement system).

Atlanta and Georgia have their share of weirdly pronounced place names.  For example, Atlanta's Houston Mill Road -- pronounced House-ton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.

Apart from all other considerations, I want Ossoff to win just to see what Trump tweets in response.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn estimated 266k votes....

Even without the flooding, that would be an unexpectedly super high total.

That would be 124K votes today.  There's no way that squares with the estimate someone posted from Fulton that they were expecting 36K.  I'm beginning to wonder if the 36K was a typo.