Did Ossoff even stand a chance?
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  Did Ossoff even stand a chance?
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Author Topic: Did Ossoff even stand a chance?  (Read 3534 times)
RINO Tom
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« Reply #25 on: June 21, 2017, 12:10:44 PM »

No, and I think even if he had been the second coming of Obama, he still would have lost. Places like GA-06 simply aren't hospitable to Democrats.

But it's literally the future base of the party, friend.

The future isn't now though, now is it.

That "future" will never exist, hence my sarcastic post.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #26 on: June 21, 2017, 12:56:11 PM »

No, and I think even if he had been the second coming of Obama, he still would have lost. Places like GA-06 simply aren't hospitable to Democrats.

But it's literally the future base of the party, friend.

The future isn't now though, now is it.

That "future" will never exist, hence my sarcastic post.

Never say never. The GOP were never gonna get into The South either, then Hoover did it.

The West Coast was Rocky Republican land that'd always come back, then Mondale trended it away, Dukakis won it, and Clinton won bigly.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2017, 12:59:01 PM »

No, and I think even if he had been the second coming of Obama, he still would have lost. Places like GA-06 simply aren't hospitable to Democrats.

But it's literally the future base of the party, friend.

The future isn't now though, now is it.

That "future" will never exist, hence my sarcastic post.

Never say never. The GOP were never gonna get into The South either, then Hoover did it.

The West Coast was Rocky Republican land that'd always come back, then Mondale trended it away, Dukakis won it, and Clinton won bigly.

Maybe.  It doesn't seem like a party a Democrat like you would continue to support, and I think leadership knows that.  Count me as skeptical it'd ever happen.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2017, 01:19:25 PM »

When your opponent ruthlessly attacks you for being a San Francisco gay socialist and your response is "well actually I support cutting wasteful spending, look at how moderate I am", you're not going to win.

Then again, maybe in hindsight we shouldn't have expected the district that voted for Newt Gingrich to be so kind to the Democrats.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2017, 01:20:40 PM »

No, and I think even if he had been the second coming of Obama, he still would have lost. Places like GA-06 simply aren't hospitable to Democrats.

But it's literally the future base of the party, friend.

The future isn't now though, now is it.

That "future" will never exist, hence my sarcastic post.

Never say never. The GOP were never gonna get into The South either, then Hoover did it.

The West Coast was Rocky Republican land that'd always come back, then Mondale trended it away, Dukakis won it, and Clinton won bigly.

Maybe.  It doesn't seem like a party a Democrat like you would continue to support, and I think leadership knows that.  Count me as skeptical it'd ever happen.

If gentrification continues to force minorities dependent on social programs in that direction, then I have no qualms with it.

If the focus on that stays on the limousine "white-flight" liberals with a paternalistic look little different from Benjamin Harrison's GOP, that is different.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #30 on: June 21, 2017, 01:26:30 PM »

This race was a toss-up. He lost by a few points, and I do not think one can rightfully say he didn't have a chance in that case.

At most I think one could say that the fundamentals of this district gave Republicans the advantage, but recent events definitely made it viable. Being competitive/a toss-up doesn't guarantee Ossoff will win, it just means he had a shot.


Was he? It is my understanding that he went out of his way to avoid basing his campaign only on Trump bashing. I get that the national party is all in for anti-Trump stuff, but that doesn't mean Ossoff was.

Plus, let's not forget that it is Trump who made this district competitive in the first place. Issues like healthcare will help, but it isn't the reason.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #31 on: June 21, 2017, 01:34:43 PM »

Do you guys remember in the other thread when I said the minute ossoff looses the radical left will be saying it's because he wasn't a radical left populist? Well here we go

https://youtu.be/rTYpjU3MENc

These people don't realize populism is why this district swung left in the first place, if one of these populist ran against Handel, she would have won by the Tom Price margins. That strategy might work in rural America, but not these high educated suburbs.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #32 on: June 21, 2017, 03:16:36 PM »

He lost by fewer than 10,000 votes. Yes.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2017, 03:26:24 PM »

This Ossoff fellow got the same number of voters as the guy who ran against Tom Price. There just aren't enough Democrats in the district to counter high GOP turnout.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #34 on: June 21, 2017, 03:34:39 PM »

Being anti-Trump and nothing else isn't an election winner.

Being opposed to Trump's policies might be. But from what I saw, he was running against Trump as a personality, which doesn't work quite as well.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #35 on: June 21, 2017, 03:35:50 PM »

How many f****ng Ossoff threads are we going to have?  He lost we get it, is it really so big a deal that we have to clutter the board with this stuff for the next couple days?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #36 on: June 21, 2017, 03:37:39 PM »

How many f****ng Ossoff threads are we going to have?  He lost we get it, is it really so big a deal that we have to clutter the board with this stuff for the next couple days?

There is nothing else to talk about until fall. Enjoy.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #37 on: June 21, 2017, 03:40:37 PM »

How many f****ng Ossoff threads are we going to have?  He lost we get it, is it really so big a deal that we have to clutter the board with this stuff for the next couple days?

Democrats wasted $30 Million in an unwinnable race, and deserve to be shamed for it.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #38 on: June 21, 2017, 03:51:47 PM »

Dominating in Montana, Georgia [insert new election here]
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #39 on: June 21, 2017, 03:55:37 PM »

Moving the goalposts, I see.

Yes, this was a very competitive race, and this forum even considered Ossoff a favorite.
How heavy are goalposts? They've been lifted pretty far.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #40 on: June 21, 2017, 03:59:31 PM »

Dominating in Montana, Georgia [insert new election here]

Alabama Senate
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #41 on: June 21, 2017, 04:00:26 PM »


UT-3 as well I suppose.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #42 on: June 22, 2017, 07:16:01 AM »

Of course he stood a chance. It was the closest race in ages there.
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« Reply #43 on: June 22, 2017, 07:19:05 AM »

Of course he stood a chance. It was the closest race in ages there.

3 out of 4 of NH's federal races last year were closer, so it's not that hard to find closer races.
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Torie
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« Reply #44 on: June 22, 2017, 07:35:00 AM »

Of course he stood a chance. It was the closest race in ages there.

And there you have it. In other news, why can't the Dems find candidates with roots in the district, and a record of accomplishment therein? We had such a "rootless" carpetbagger from NYC candidate last time in NY-19 (an area not totally enamored with the Big Apple), and well she was a LOSER, despite her glitzy veneer.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #45 on: June 22, 2017, 07:40:39 AM »

Of course he stood a chance. It was the closest race in ages there.

And there you have it. In other news, why can't the Dems find candidates with roots in the district, and a record of accomplishment therein? We had such a "rootless" carpetbagger from NYC candidate last time in NY-19 (an area not totally enamored with the Big Apple), and well she was a LOSER, despite her glitzy veneer.
What good people could the Dems run? What sort of bench did Dems have?
Ossoff was a great candidate. He had little of a record to attack, and he came close to winning a fundamentally conservative suburban district north of Atlanta. He should have moved to Roswell or promised to move in the seat if he won, but still, he did great. This was a seat Romney won by 23! points.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #46 on: June 22, 2017, 09:18:52 AM »

Again, I don't think the people making fun of Democrats are not admitting that the rise of Trump coupled with SOME demographic change hasn't made for an impressive margin cut in places like GA-6 ... it's that Democrats seem to have largely planned their "comeback" around winning over these conservative voters with a distaste for Trump, and that's suicide, IMO.  The Democrats will infuriate way more in their party than they'd pick up outside of it by taking the kinds of stances they'd need to to win these districts, and they know that.  So, their option is go after places that COULD be open to their agenda (and were a few short years ago) or run "centrists" in these types of "Never Trump"-ish districts, and that's clearly failing.  There is such a high floor for a Republican in a rich, White, suburban district like this, and I just think it's a fool's errand.
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Sbane
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« Reply #47 on: June 22, 2017, 11:04:54 AM »

Ossoff's strategy of running on ending government waste seemed phony to me. Sure, the attacks on him for being a "San Francisco liberal" were just as bad but calling for an end to government waste isn't promising much. Every politician promises it but there's not much to cut. It doesn't get to the core issues of the country. He ran on nothing and couldn't win over people who might have given him a chance. Of course, in a district like this it would be hard to run on Medicare for all and increasing taxes on the rich. It will be hard for Democrats to win districts like this which are exclusively white, rich suburbanites, especially if they voted for Trump. They will do better to stick with districts that have either more minorities, college students or working class folks who can be won over with a more traditional Democratic argument.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #48 on: June 22, 2017, 11:49:30 AM »

Ossoff's strategy of running on ending government waste seemed phony to me. Sure, the attacks on him for being a "San Francisco liberal" were just as bad but calling for an end to government waste isn't promising much. Every politician promises it but there's not much to cut. It doesn't get to the core issues of the country. He ran on nothing and couldn't win over people who might have given him a chance. Of course, in a district like this it would be hard to run on Medicare for all and increasing taxes on the rich. It will be hard for Democrats to win districts like this which are exclusively white, rich suburbanites, especially if they voted for Trump. They will do better to stick with districts that have either more minorities, college students or working class folks who can be won over with a more traditional Democratic argument.

I must say I called this race completely wrong, largely because I over estimated the willingness of said demographic to flip in the era of, and in reaction to, Trump. Even more so because of how much the situation has degraded to the point where I seriously doubt Trump even makes it through the year. Against that backdrop, I expected the results to be far worse.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #49 on: June 22, 2017, 12:03:19 PM »

Ossoff's strategy of running on ending government waste seemed phony to me. Sure, the attacks on him for being a "San Francisco liberal" were just as bad but calling for an end to government waste isn't promising much. Every politician promises it but there's not much to cut. It doesn't get to the core issues of the country. He ran on nothing and couldn't win over people who might have given him a chance. Of course, in a district like this it would be hard to run on Medicare for all and increasing taxes on the rich. It will be hard for Democrats to win districts like this which are exclusively white, rich suburbanites, especially if they voted for Trump. They will do better to stick with districts that have either more minorities, college students or working class folks who can be won over with a more traditional Democratic argument.

I must say I called this race completely wrong, largely because I over estimated the willingness of said demographic to flip in the era of, and in reaction to, Trump. Even more so because of how much the situation has degraded to the point where I seriously doubt Trump even makes it through the year. Against that backdrop, I expected the results to be far worse.

I could be TOTALLY wrong come 2018 (I fully admit that) and anecdotal evidence should be taken worth a grain of salt (I fully admit that's what this is, as well), but nothing I have experienced in "real life" (aka outside of political nerds' fantasies and over-analyzation) suggests that any meaningful number of "upscale" Republican voters are anywhere near ready to join the Democratic Party just because there was a GOP nominee they despised ... heck, a plurality of them stuck with the nominee, and needless to say stuck with their downballot Republicans even more loyally.
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