A pattern emerges...

[Thomas Jackson]

I have found an amazing pattern that has emerged since President Trump was elected.

Every special election in 2016 was morphed into the next great predictor of doom for President Trump, even when the predictions didn't pan out.

The pattern? In each case, the goal posts were moved a little further down the line.

Pattern:

KS-4 = IF THE DEMOCRAT WINS, TRUMP IS DOOMED THE GOP IS DOOMED PERMANENT DEMOCRAT MAJORITY!!!!!!!

http://www.npr.org/2017/04/11/523380705/a-kansas-special-election-could-signal-big-league-problems-for-gop-trump
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-special-election-congress_us_58e6ac26e4b0ace57cc0b43a

Then the Democrat loses.

All of the sudden, it isn't the WIN the matters, it's the "closeness" of the result.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/04/12/four-big-lessons-from-kansass-special-election/?utm_term=.b2d799dc1fad
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-election-thompson-estes_us_58ed1c4ce4b0df7e2045ff89
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kansas-election-thompson-estes_us_58ed1c4ce4b0df7e2045ff89

Check... Goalposts moved.

Then it was MT-AL was the be-all and end all predictor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/25/us/politics/gianforte-quist-montana-special-election.html
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/montanas-strange-evolving-special-election.html
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/what-the-polls-say-about-montanas-special-election/

Then it wasn't. Georgia was all that mattered. Also, in Montana, the left strangely kept comparing the margins to the 2016 Presidential electorate rather than the 2014 Senate race, which had a much similar margin and almost exactly the same number of voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/montana-special-election/
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/26/montana-special-election-takeaways-238848

Check... Goalposts moved.

Then it was GA-06 was the be-all and end all predictor.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-georgia-special-election-is-make-or-break-for-democrats_us_5946c83fe4b0d188d027ff92

Now this morning, Shills like Wasserman and Silver and flipping the script and saying that the "closeness" is all that matters.

Never mind that the Rats dumped 30 Million dollars in this seat, never mind that this was nationalized as a referendum on President Trump, and never mind that this was a 1% Trump district and Handel IMPROVED on that margin.

Check... Goalposts moved.

[Doimper]

KS-4 margin of victory, 2016: 31.06%
KS-4 margin of victory, 2017: 6.8%
Swing to Democrats: 24.26%

MT-AL margin of victory, 2016: 15.64%
MT-AL margin of victory, 2017: 6.08%
Swing to Democrats: 9.56%

GA-6 margin of victory, 2016: 23.4%
GA-6 margin of victory, 2017: 3.8%
Swing to Democrats: 19.6%

SC-5 margin of victory, 2016: 20.48%
SC-5 margin of victory, 2017: 3.2%
Swing to Democrats: 17.28%

lol

For any posters coming into this thread after this post, this is now a Richard Nixon thread. Please share pictures of Richard Nixon doing bizarre things.

[Thomas Jackson]

KS-4 margin of victory, 2016: 31.06%
KS-4 margin of victory, 2017: 6.8%
Swing to Democrats: 24.26%

MT-AL margin of victory, 2016: 15.64%
MT-AL margin of victory, 2017: 6.08%
Swing to Democrats: 9.56%

GA-6 margin of victory, 2016: 23.4%
GA-6 margin of victory, 2017: 3.8%
Swing to Democrats: 19.6%

SC-5 margin of victory, 2016: 20.48%
SC-5 margin of victory, 2017: 3.2%
Swing to Democrats: 17.28%

Moving the goal post. Check.

In every one of those circumstances, you are comparing a Presidential electorate with a non-presidential electorate. In every one of those circumstances, you are comparing an OPEN SEAT with one in which an incumbent was present.

APPLES and ORANGES.

KS-4 Number of Voters 2016: 260586
KS-4 Number of Voters 2017: 118815

Democrat vote% in 2014: 40.4%
Democrat vote % in 2017: 43.8% (People also ignore that the CONSERVATIVE libertarian took 5.7% of the vote in 2017).
MT-AL Number of Voters 2014 367,963
MT-AL Number of Voters 2016: 507,831
MT-AL Number of Voter 2017: 379,763


GA-6 total vote 2016: 326,005
GA-6 total vote 2017: 259,488

SC-5 total votes 2016: 273,006
SC-5 total votes 2017: 87,840


ABSOLUTELY LAUGHABLE to compare a Presidential electorate to an off year electorate. Montana AL is especially illustrative. The Rats desperately don't want you to look at the 2014 election, where the number of votes is almost IDENTICAL, and want you to ignore the Conservative Libertarian in the race in 2017.

Add the 5.7% to Gianforte and the Democrats gained a measly 3.4% after pumping millions and non-stop CNN/MSNBC/NYSLIMES/WA COMPOST droppings into the State.

[Doimper]

KS-4 margin of victory, 2016: 31.06%
KS-4 margin of victory, 2017: 6.8%
Swing to Democrats: 24.26%

MT-AL margin of victory, 2016: 15.64%
MT-AL margin of victory, 2017: 6.08%
Swing to Democrats: 9.56%

GA-6 margin of victory, 2016: 23.4%
GA-6 margin of victory, 2017: 3.8%
Swing to Democrats: 19.6%

SC-5 margin of victory, 2016: 20.48%
SC-5 margin of victory, 2017: 3.2%
Swing to Democrats: 17.28%

Moving the goal post. Check.

In every one of those circumstances, you are comparing a Presidential electorate with a non-presidential electorate. In every one of those circumstances, you are comparing an OPEN SEAT with one in which an incumbent was present.

APPLES and ORANGES.

KS-4 Number of Voters 2016: 260586
KS-4 Number of Voters 2017: 118815

Democrat vote% in 2014: 40.4%
Democrat vote % in 2017: 43.8% (People also ignore that the CONSERVATIVE libertarian took 5.7% of the vote in 2017).
MT-AL Number of Voters 2014 367,963
MT-AL Number of Voters 2016: 507,831
MT-AL Number of Voter 2017: 379,763


GA-6 total vote 2016: 326,005
GA-6 total vote 2017: 259,488

SC-5 total votes 2016: 273,006
SC-5 total votes 2017: 87,840


ABSOLUTELY LAUGHABLE to compare a Presidential electorate to an off year electorate. Montana AL is especially illustrative. The Rats desperately don't want you to look at the 2014 election, where the number of votes is almost IDENTICAL, and want you to ignore the Conservative Libertarian in the race in 2017.

Add the 5.7% to Gianforte and the Democrats gained a measly 3.4% after pumping millions and non-stop CNN/MSNBC/NYSLIMES/WA COMPOST droppings into the State.

Sorry, this isn't the correct thread for that! Please post entertaining pictures of Richard Nixon or leave.



(That's cottage cheese with ketchup)

[Kamala]

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

[Thomas Jackson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL! You don't get to dictate what I do. Sorry.

[Doimper]

[Thomas Jackson]

You do realize that your actions here actually mean that you concede my point. You have nothing to say, have no retort, and you realize that this goal post moving is as ridiculous as it actually is.

Thank you for my accolades.

[DrScholl]

For the record, none of those seats were ever considered to be guaranteed gains for Democrats. KS-4 didn't even look competitive under about a week or so until the election. In the long term, swing matters and 2018 won't be pretty for Republicans if history is any indicator. Go eat your bananas and be quiet, monkey.

[publicunofficial]

This guy is an asshole but he's making more of a sane point than "Actually these numerous losses prove the Dems are sure to win in 2018"